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The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note edged down by nearly 2 basis points to below 4.21% on Tuesday, as traders braced for the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting amid an escalation in the conflict with Iran. Oil prices moved higher again as tensions intensified, with Iran stepping up attacks on energy infrastructure across the Persian Gulf, while Israel reported it had killed Iran’s security chief. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep the fed funds rate unchanged when it announces its decision tomorrow. However, all eyes will be on the updated projections at a time when rising oil prices pose risks to both inflation and economic growth, while the labour market shows signs of softening.

Treasury Yields Edge Lower

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's general business activity index, which tracks economic activity in New York State as well as parts of New Jersey and Connecticut, inched up to -22.6 in March of 2026 from the five-year low of -25.7 in the previous month. Despite the slight improvement in the rate of deterioration, the reading still reflected one of the sharpest declines in activity since the US economy started to recover from the Covid shock 5 years prior. The business climate index dropped by 4.5 points from the earlier month to -46.2 and the prices charged dropped by 1.1 points 28.8. In turn, the index measuring employment improved by 1.2 points to -8.5. Looking ahead, the business activity expectations index dropped by 4.8 points to 12.7.

NY Fed Services Index Reflects Further Deterioration

The economy of Ghana advanced by 5.8% year-on-year in Q4 2025, following a 5.5% growth in the previous period, mainly driven by the services (8.6%) and agricultural (5.3%) sectors. At the same time, the industrial sector rose by 1.9%. Considering the full year of 2025, the GDP grew by 6%, marking the fastest expansion since 2019, after an upwardly revised 5.8% rise in 2024.

Ghana GDP Grows Faster in Q4

US private employers added an average of 9,000 jobs per week in the four weeks ending February 28, 2026, a notable decline from the revised 14,750 jobs per week in the prior period, according to the ADP Research Institute. The slowdown marks a setback in hiring momentum after several weeks of improvement.

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