Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI

United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final

United States ISM Manufacturing Employment

United States ISM Manufacturing Prices

The Brazilian real depreciated past 6.3 per USD in December, marking a record low, driven by negative investor sentiment over rising inflation expectations and fiscal policy concerns. The central bank’s latest Focus Bulletin revealed an upward revision in the projected base interest rate for the end of 2025 to 12.63%, up from 12.25% the previous week, alongside an increase in the 2025 inflation forecast from 4.34% to 4.40%. These concerns were exacerbated by disappointment over the recent fiscal spending package, which fell short of anticipated spending cuts. Internationally, pressure intensified due to trade threats from U.S. President-elect Trump, who demanded BRICS nations refrain from supporting alternative currencies or face 100% tariffs. Compounding these challenges, reduced Chinese demand for Brazil’s key commodities, reflected in a narrowing trade surplus and declining oil, soybean, and iron ore prices, has further constrained capital inflows, deepening the real’s depreciation.

Brazilian Real Hits Record Low on Fiscal and Trade Woes

The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships ferrying dry bulk commodities, was down for the fourth consecutive session on Monday, dropping about 4.1% to its lowest since September 2023 at 1,298 points, amid lower rates across all vessel segments. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, slumped 160 points to a one-month low of 1,973 points; and the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain cargo, decreased for the 12th successive day, falling 9 points to a 16-month low of 1,009 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index eased 1 point to 979 points.

Baltic Dry Index Falls Further to Over 1-Year Low

The Ibovespa fell 0.4% to below the 125,300 level on Monday amid broad-based declines as investors digested the central bank’s latest Focus Bulletin. The median expectation for the base interest rate at the end of next year rose to 12.63%, up from 12.25% the previous week, aligning with an upward revision of the 2025 inflation forecast from 4.34% to 4.40%. Meanwhile, President Lula appointed Nilton David, Banco Bradesco's treasury head, to succeed Gabriel Galípolo as Monetary Policy Director in January. Heavyweights WEG, Ambev, JBS, and Suzano led the decline with losses ranging from 0.7% to 1.1%. Economically, Brazil's manufacturing PMI fell to 52.3 in November, marking 11 months of growth but the slowest pace in three months.

Ibovespa Subdued at Month Start

The S&P Global Brazil Manufacturing PMI fell further to 52.3 in November 2024, down from 52.9 in the prior month. This marked the 11th consecutive month of growth in the country’s manufacturing sector, though it was the weakest expansion in three months. New orders continued to rise at a solid pace amid resilient domestic demand but output growth slowed. Meanwhile, firms continued to increase staffing levels and raw material purchases. On the pricing front, input costs and selling charges saw more moderate increases, but inflation remained high by historical standards.

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