Friday’s volatility has swiftly sent EURCHF to new lows but bulls retaliate sending the price back above the crucial 0.96 range.

I have minimized another loss from yesterday’s long call:

https://www.finlogix.com/analysis/20240418/eurchf-intraday-analysis-and-trading-plan-for-april-18-2024

There is no major economic report for both Europe and Switzerland to finish the trading week.

Re-assessing EURCHF’s high timeframe candles:

Yearly Candle: Still a Green Body with a Longer Head Wick since last check

Monthly Candle: Last check is a Red Long Upper Shadow with a Small Body now a Red Long-Legged Spinning Top

Weekly Candle: Last check is a Green Spinning Top now a Red Long-Legged Semi Doji

Daily Candle: Previous close is a Red Hammer with a Long Tail Wick current is a Red Long Lower Shadow with a Long Tail Wick

Even with the EURCHF’s latest swing low, I maintain my bullish bias for this cross pair.

Based on this move, a corrective down wave could have ended as well.

It’s good to see that the Euro bulls are responding quickly and aggressively by pushing the price back at the 0.9850 to 0.9660 retracement range I’ve mentioned in yesterday’s analysis.

When I said to keep an eye on the consolidation area yesterday, the PoD has prevailed for the bears but a strong buybacking power through a long tail wick’s presence earlier have somehow opened new EURCHF buy positions.

To maintain a bullish narrative, the retracement range should be held next week.

By completely sweeping the sell side liquidity residing below the mid-week’s swing low, multiple discount array orders have been hit.

The intraday candle looks strong as well therefore I’m going to set new long orders here:

My long term analysis is still parity. I will keep opening long positions for the EURCHF till then.

All trade ideas I share are my own views and for my own trades only.

Copy trading and trading directly involve risks.

EURCHF Intraday Analysis and Trading Plan For April 19, 2024

AUDUSD has hit a fresh 2-month lows during Friday’s weak opening could spark a stronger comeback as speculative short bets are overextended.

A good try to long the AUDUSD last Monday, caught the stop loss earlier during intraday's opening session:

https://www.finlogix.com/analysis/20240415/audusd-intraday-analysis-and-trading-plan-for-april-15-2024

An overall record of 4 wins and 7 losses.

There is no further Australian high impact economic report this Friday after weaker Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures came out on Thursday.

These figures have helped a slump on the Aussie against the heavily favored Greenback.

Re-assessing AUDUSD’s high timeframe candles:

Yearly Candle: Still a Red Body since last check but with a Longer Tail Wick

Monthly Candle: Last check is a Red Long Upper Shadow now a Red Body with a Longer Head Wick

Weekly Candle: Last check is a Green Body with a Longer Head Wick now a Red Long Lower Shadow

Daily Candle: Previous close is a Red Long Upper Shadow current is a Red Semi Dragonfly Doji

Yearly candle’s body has grown suggesting stronger selling pressure for the month of April.

Previous daily candle’s closing dips have caught the recent long stops. We can see this as the recent swing low that has pushed the AUDUSD’s price back above 0.64 at time of writing this analysis.

Additionally, both yesterday and today’s candle formations are depicting a classical 2-day supply and demand area.

We need this latest supply and demand range to consolidate and hold before the weekend comes.

There’s some desperate buybacking happening for the day and buyers might get exhausted.

While April 1’s swing low order block is now lost and acts as one of AUDUSD’s internal resistances, price is hovering again on the optimal 0.6380-0.6420 buy zone range mentioned last time.

This resulted a good stop loss in the previous long trade plan again.

I should have set a deeper and wider stop which could have kept my long position active.

I continue to buy the Aussie on its further weakness today through opening a new long position on the current 4H candle pullbacks.

The New York session is coming and we’ll see if the AUDUSD sustains above the recent swing low.

AUDUSD Intraday Analysis and Trading Plan For April 19, 2024

The EURCHF faced a strong supply area at 0.9850 that halted the price from soaring higher during the first week of April.

As a result, I have prevented a huge loss from my previous long call:

https://www.finlogix.com/analysis/20240404/eurchf-intraday-analysis-and-trading-plan-for-april-4-2024

Landing my first loss for the cross pair.

There is no major economic report for Both Europe and Switzerland this week.

Last week, the ECB maintained a 4.50% interest rate which in my opinion supports a hawkish Euro against the Swiss National Bank’s dovish Swiss Francs March rate cut.

Yearly Candle: Still a Green Body since last check but with a Longer Head Wick

Monthly Candle: Last check is Green Body with a Longer Tail Wick now a Red Long Upper Shadow with a Small Body

Weekly Candle: Previous close is a Red Long-Legged Spinning Top with a Longer Head Wick current is a Green Spinning Top

Daily Candle: Previous close is a Green Body with a Long Tail Wick current is a Red Hammer

Still bullish for the year after the long term downtrend is reversed.

There’s an acceptable monthly pullback but the trajectory is still in a clear up trend for now.

My attention for now is the 0.9850 to 0.96660 retracement range.

From what I am seeing, the recently lost 4H 50-SMA will be reclaimed when a confirmed breakout occurs anytime intraday!

Price is tightening on the 4H view as well. If a successful breakout above the 23.60% fib price level happens, the intraday red hammer evolves to a green body at least.

Based on this information, I am going to open a long position through the current price levels with a stop loss set below the retracement’s lower range while taking profit at the 78.60% fib.

My long term analysis is parity. I will keep opening long positions for the EURCHF.

See you in my next calls. Have a great day.

EURCHF Intraday Analysis and Trading Plan For April 18, 2024

Canada’s weak Tuesday CPI data has helped the Greenback in bid tone against Loonie. USDCAD’s short to mid term range remains in a bullish favor.

Second Finlogix analysis today goes to the USDCAD pair.

Last March 22’s short trade plan has exited in another loss after holding for 5 days and 8 hours:

https://www.finlogix.com/analysis/20240322/usdcad-intraday-analysis-and-trading-plan-for-march-22-2024

A new overall record of 1 win and 3 losses.

There is no further Canadian high impact report this Thursday.

Re-assessing USDCAD’s high timeframe candles:

Yearly Candle: Last check is a Green Shaven Bottom now a Green Body with a Longer Head Wick

Monthly Candle: Previous close is a Red Long Lower Shadow current is a Green Body with a Longer Head Wick

Weekly Candle: Previous close is a Green Body with a Longer Tail Wick current is a Red Long Upper Shadow

Daily Candle: Previous close is a Red Body and current is a Growing Red Body with a Small Head Wick

The USDCAD has finally eased down after a 5 day green streak.

Intraday low has surpassed yesterday’s lows which signals for a more lowering move.

Despite the corrections on faster time frames, the weekly candle is hinting at a consolidation that can pave way for a new bullish weekly FVG.

If the potential weekly FVG succeeds, the USDCAD can restart the bullish move targeting the external highs of the range mentioned.

In order to keep a bullish bias alive, the pair’s price should stay above the 61.80% fib retracement and the 4H 50-SMA must hold as a support.

Calculating carefully, I change my instance into a USDCAD buyer.

I think it’s enough to stop selling for a while from the straight 2 losses.

To be safe, I’m going to test a long position on the 4H 50-SMA targeting the 78.60% fib retracement for 1.50 RRR take profit while setting a stop loss just below the 61.80% fib.

I hope the 1.37 holds up after a possibility of drawing some sell side liquidity on 1.36 sub levels.

This is what I see for the USDCAD for now.

USDCAD Intraday Analysis and Trading Plan For April 18, 2024

GPBUSD’s confirmed downtrend has continued after sweeping multiple external swing lows since November 22.

Recent sell rallies have triggered both my newest and oldest trade plans:

https://www.finlogix.com/analysis/20240410/gbpusd-intraday-analysis-and-trading-plan-for-april-10-2024

https://www.finlogix.com/analysis/20240216/gbpusd-intraday-analysis-and-trading-plan-for-february-16-2024

The recent stops give me a 1 win and 2 losses overall record.

There are 5 British major economic releases this week with 1 remaining Retail Sales month-over-month data on Friday.

Better US data releases this week have proven a stronger Greenback against the British Pound.

Re-assessing GBPUSD’s high timeframe candles:

Yearly Candle: Last check is a Long-Legged Red Spinning Top now a Red Body with a Longer Head Wick

Monthly Candle: Last check is a Green Long Lower Shadow now a Red Body with a Longer Head Wick

Weekly Candle: Previous close is a Red Body with a Longer Head Wick now a Green Spinning Top

Daily Candle: Previous close is a Green Body with a Longer Head Wick current is a Green Body with a Longer Tail Wick

GBPUSD has further given up its April gains based on the updated yearly and monthly candles.

A strong rejection towards the 1.27 level last week has also limited GBPUSD pushing up intraweek.

The presence of a red body with a longer head wick alone across the mid to long term candles is not a good sign for an upside bias.

Needless to say, GBPUSD is saved by the bell from mad bears as it found solace from its nearby internal resistance and support levels.

The pair might continue trading in this choppy range to close the week but a failure to sustenance can lead to another drop that potentially targets November 2023 external lows and its bullish 4H FVG as well.

There are 2 recent bearish daily FVGs that helped in sending the GBPUSD lower which I’ve indicated in the 4H chart above.

For a sell opportunity, I need to observe if there’s a possible breakout from this choppy range that targets a clearing of the narrow daily FVG.

For a buy, it’s best to open a long position on the once confirmed November bullish FVG.

I will bet for the 2nd option with the following long entries:

If the November bullish FVG holds after sweeping liquidity below the November 17 swing lows, this creates a powerful order block that can catapult my 3 to 1 risk:reward long setup.

GBPUSD Intraday Analysis and Trading Plan For April 18, 2024 1.24907

Yesterday’s dump has exceeded below March 15’s external swing lows catching the sell side liquidity underneath these levels.

To end my analysis for today, I will update a new one for the NAS100 index.

With a holding time of 1 day and 4 hours, March 19’s trade plan has exited in a stop loss:

https://www.finlogix.com/analysis/20240319/nas100-intraday-analysis-and-trading-plan-for-march-19-2024

An overall record of 1 win and 1 loss respectively.

Still awaiting the 2 remaining American major economic data out this week specially Fed Chair Powell’s Wednesday speech!

Markets’ volatility remains elevated as we head into the mid week.

Re-assessing NAS100’s high timeframe candles:

Yearly Candle: Still a Green Spinning Top since last check

Monthly Candle: Previous close is a Green Spinning Top current is a Red Body

Weekly Candle: Previous close is a Red Spinning Top current is a Red Body with a Longer Head Wick

Daily Candle: Previous close is a Red Body with a Longer Head Wick current is developing a Small Red Long Lower Shadow with a Small Body

The yearly candle’s pattern is still in a green spinning top suggesting that long term highs and lows could be the ranges if consolidation starts already through the smaller time frames.

Like most of the US major indices, the NAS100 index has started its own price correction.

Given the current macroeconomic, geo-political and fundamental situations, the index’s correction can further escalate.

The US dollar has also remained a favorite safe haven asset besides Gold giving an idea of equities and stocks’ selling.

On the 4H chart above, the NAS100 index is trading in a descending channel of its own based on the swing high formed from March 21-22 peaks.

From then, we can see multiple instances of lower highs creating the channel.

There’s a nearby FVG that was formed on February 21 that helped the previous impulsive move to be re-tested as a support .

If the mentioned FVG succeeds in holding as a support area, the index might start a strong recovery rally.

Based on this idea, I like to open a long position with a 2 to 1 risk:reward setup.

The stop loss is safely set below February 21’s swing low in case the FVG is retraced fully instead as a sign of failure. 

NAS100 Intraday Analysis and Trading Plan For April 16, 2024

An imminent 4H death cross to further catalyze selling pressures. Will the flipped 5000 S/R level holds?

My April 9 short trade plan has hit another take profit after a strong US March CPI release last Wednesday:

https://www.finlogix.com/analysis/20240409/sp500-intraday-analysis-for-april-9-2024

With heavy US data on Monday, the markets are expecting 2 more US major economic reports this week with a key highlight on Fed Chair Powell’s Wednesday speech and Unemployment Claims on Thursday.

Volatility remains elevated as we head in to the mid week.

Re-assessing the S&P500’s high timeframe candles:

Monthly Candle: Last check is a Red Hammer now a Red Body

Weekly Candle: Previous close is a Red Body current is also a Red Body with a Longer Head Wick

Daily Candle: Previous close is a Red Body with a Longer Head Wick current is developing a Red Semi Long Lower Shadow

The price correction have started across the US major indices including the S&P500.

The index is trading in a downward channel with multiple lower swing highs since March 31.

These swing highs formed the channel’s resistance which we can also see stronger 4H bearish candles suggesting that the sellers are in more control.

However, Intraday’s swing low has held above the flipped S/R 5000 level.

Based on the previous up trend rally in February, this flipped S/R level was the previous resistance now acting as support.

The 4H moving averages indicate a coming death cross after a successful bear cross last week.

This may hint a further selling if the 5000 levels break down.

The current 4H candle at press time is holding up strongly. It’s an aggressive Red Dragonfly Doji and once it closes in green, price might recover so I’m not shorting the current levels to be safer.

I’m not gonna long though. For now, I’m observing if the index’s price tries to rally back at the down channel’s support trendline.

Overnight selling pressures have initially broken it down and I like one more confirmation before shorting the index.

I’m actually tempted to long the S&P500 instead but after weighing carefully the current macro-economics revolving around the US economy and the geopolitical tensions building up between Iran and Israel, equities are likely to be sold more.

Good luck and let’s see how this one goes.

S&P500 Intraday Analysis For April 16, 2024

Ethereum’s latest swing high invalidates yesterday’s recovery rally. Current consolidation is threatening to the downside .

With a holding time of 6 hours only, my long trade yesterday has triggered its stop loss:

https://www.finlogix.com/analysis/20240415/eth-intraday-analysis-and-trading-plan-for-april-15-2024

First Finlogix analysis today goes to Ethereum.

There markets are expecting 2 more US major economic reports this week with a key highlight on Fed Chair Powell’s Wednesday speech and Unemployment Claims Thursday.

Last night, 3 have been released including better than forecasted Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales month-over-month figures which lifted the US dollar to a new 62-day high.

Re-asssessing ETHUSD’s high timeframe candlesticks:

Yearly Candle: Last check is a Green Body with a Longer Head Wick now a Green Long Upper Shadow

Monthly Candle: Last check is a Red Long Lower Shadow with a Doubled Body Size now a Red Body with a Longer Tail Wick

Weekly Candle: Last check is a Green Body with a Longer Tail Wick now a Red Long Upper Shadow

Daily Candle: Previous close is a Red Spinning Top current is developing a Red Body with a Longer Head Wick

ETHUSD’s recovery attempt yesterday has been halted through the presence of a new swing high rejecting the idea of further moving up towards the 3500 level.

Yearly candle has changed to a green long upper shadow suggesting more selling pressures.

Meanwhile the monthly, weekly and daily candles are showing signs of a further drop.

The bearish FVG from the 3260 to 3440 range mentioned in yesterday’s analysis proved to be strong after a new swing high occurred.

From this swing high, a new bearish FVG has been formed and holds up as well.

Current consolidation looks weak and gives better chances for the bears.

In today’s trade plan, I change my instance to a seller.

I’m waiting for a re-test towards the intraday high.

A successful rejection can validate a break-out to the downside.

In order to negate this bearish thesis, ETHUSD needs a lot of buying firepower to completely clear out the latest 4H FVG.

ETH Intraday Analysis and Trading Plan For April 15, 2024

Even though the optimal 0.6380-0.6420 buy zone range was not hit, AUDUSD’s latest swing low can stage a comeback.

This optimal buy zone range is mentioned on my February 20 analysis:

https://www.finlogix.com/analysis/20240220/audusd-intraday-analysis-and-trading-plan-for-february-20-2024

After holding the previous long trade for 3 days and 2 hours, my April 9, 2024 trade plan has triggered its stop loss:

https://www.finlogix.com/analysis/20240409/audusd-intraday-analysis-and-trading-plan-for-april-9-2024

An overall standing of 4 wins and 6 losses.

There are 2 Australian high impact economic reports to keep an eye on Thursday, the Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures respectively.

Yearly Candle: Still a Red Body since last check but with a Diminished Tail Wick

Monthly Candle: Last check is a Green Long Upper Shadow now a Red Long Upper Shadow

Weekly Candle: Previous close is a Red Body with a Longer Head Wick current is a Green Body with a Longer Head Wick

Daily Candle: Friday close is a Big Red Body current is a Green Body with a Longer Head Wick

The AUDUSD’s April price action almost mimics March but to a slightly higher degree. This is depicted through the current monthly candle pattern change versus last month.

Both the previous weekly and Friday close candles have ended up bearish. However, both the weekly and intraday candles are in green which are trying to make a recovery rally.

Based on the daily chart above, we can see another aggressive buy side liquidation from the converging LH trendline after a breakout towards the flipped S/R has failed.

As a result, the HL is broken which triggered my previous trade plan’s stop loss.

The optimal 0.6380-0.6420 buy zone range is waiting in case the rally attempts this week gets exhausted.

In any case that the current corrective structure holds up, there might be a potential impulsive up wave coming.

I’ll be focusing on buy setups regardless of a further drop towards the optimal range or an impulsive comes based on the current structure.

I’m entering through April 1 swing low's order block. The stop loss is set below the optimal buy zone range while taking profit near my previous long entry at 0.66 which acts as the new resistance when the impulsive moving up starts.

Almost a 1 to 1 RRR. Let’s see how this plan goes.

AUDUSD Intraday Analysis and Trading Plan For April 15, 2024

After a see-saw battle from the 3000-3700 range, Ethereum has rebounded from the weekend's strong liquidity sweep below the 3000 level.

My short trade plan last March 28 has triggered its stop loss before the intended moving down target was hit.

https://www.finlogix.com/analysis/20240328/eth-intraday-analysis-and-trading-plan-for-march-28-2024

Second Finlogix analysis today goes to Ethereum.

There markets are expecting 5 US major economic reports this week with a key highlight on Fed Chair Powell’s another speech on Wednesday.

Tonight 3 of those will be released including Core Retail Sales month-over-month figures.

Monthly Candle: Previous close is a Green Long-Legged Body with a Slightly Longer Head Wick current is a Red Long Lower Shadow with a Doubled Body Size

Rafael Ken Aguilar

Rafael Ken Aguilar

Apr 19 2024

EURCHF Intraday Analysis and Trading Plan For April 19, 2024

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Rafael Ken Aguilar

Apr 19 2024

AUDUSD Intraday Analysis and Trading Plan For April 19, 2024

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Rafael Ken Aguilar

Apr 18 2024

EURCHF Intraday Analysis and Trading Plan For April 18, 2024

1

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Apr 18 2024

USDCAD Intraday Analysis and Trading Plan For April 18, 2024

1

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Apr 18 2024

GBPUSD Intraday Analysis and Trading Plan For April 18, 2024 1.24907

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1

Rafael Ken Aguilar

Apr 16 2024

NAS100 Intraday Analysis and Trading Plan For April 16, 2024

1

Rafael Ken Aguilar

Apr 16 2024

S&P500 Intraday Analysis For April 16, 2024

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Rafael Ken Aguilar

Apr 16 2024

ETH Intraday Analysis and Trading Plan For April 15, 2024

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1

Rafael Ken Aguilar

Apr 15 2024

AUDUSD Intraday Analysis and Trading Plan For April 15, 2024

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Rafael Ken Aguilar

Apr 15 2024

ETH Intraday Analysis and Trading Plan For April 15, 2024

1

Rafael Ken Aguilar

Apr 15 2024

XRP Intraday Analysis and Trading Plan For April 15, 2024

1

Rafael Ken Aguilar

Apr 12 2024

USDJPY Intraday Analysis and Trading Plan For April 12, 2024

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