USDJPY moved bearish after the CPI news. The news needs to be corrected in order for the market to absorb it fully. The higher time frames has formed lower lows and lower highs which indicates the bearish trend. Therefore once the market retraces back, we will take the short position.

The ascending trendline has been broken out for sells with a massive bearish candle. This candle needs retracement in order to fill our short orders.

The retracement area is priced at 134.50 which is the golden area and is a little below the resistance level. This confluence is our prime short entry.

The EMA 50 is flat and in a bearish trend. We might not see a retest of the EMA 50 at the confluence level we have drawn.

The RSI is at 50 and this level needs to be neutralized either at the 50 level or at the over bought region where we will see some sort of a divergence in order to confluence and align with other parameters of our short position.

USDJPY continuation for the short setup

The ascending trendline has been broken out for sells with a massive bearish candle. This candle needs retracement in order to fill our short orders. 

The RSI is at 36 and this level needs to be neutralized either at the 50 level or at the over bought region where we will see some sort of a divergence in order to confluence and align with other parameters of our short position.

USDJPY shorts from retracement

USDJPY has been in an uptrend since long due to the strength of USD across the board. With that, we see a massive bull run without any correction. Right now, we will be looking at the correction at the H4 level. This correction will go through around 50-80 pips for an itraday running towards the swing. 

With this fact, market is currently at the resistance level. The profit level we are eying is going to be at the 136.50.

We have an ascending trendline formed on the pair but market is yet to break the trendline in order to validate the breakout sell. That being said, we will wait for a confirmation of the retracement even after the breakout sell. 

The resistance is in confluence with the golden retracement area of 75-78.6%. This confluence will act as a catalyst for the market to continue pushing down. 

The EMA 50 is heavily bullish. We can target our profits towards the retest of the EMA 50. If the retest broken out for a breakout sell, then we will have a long term correction towards the bearish side. 

RSI is at 54. For our shorts, we have to tap the 70 level which is the over bought region. With this we will have multiple confluence on the short side from the resistance level. 

USDJPY shorts

奉行“无限量购债”的日本央行，上周的购债规模达到了令人难以置信的11万亿日元。

据日经新闻报道，日本央行持有的日本政府债券份额已经超过了50%，创下历史新高。　

日本央行一直在购买市场上的大部分日本国债，这种不寻常的操作导致了债券市场的扭曲，包括收益率曲线的深度倒挂。

日美之间以及日欧之间不断扩大的利率差已经距促使日元大幅贬值。

本月早些时候，日元兑美元汇率跌至24年低点136。如果日本央行“不惜一切代价”捍卫0.25%的YCC关口，为防止收益率飙升所需的流动性将继续使日元贬值。

美日昨日小幅调整后多头依旧，至收盘续创日内新高，日线再度报收阳线，多头格局暂时保持，同时需关注前高阻力，突破后方可打开上升空间，从4小时图来看，布林中轨拐头向上，MACD零轴上方运行，日内下方首要支撑135.60-70，第二支撑135.20-30，上方阻力136.50-60,137.00，保持在第一支撑上方短线有望继续测试第一阻力。

阻力位2：137.00  阻力位1：136.50  即期价格：135.93  支持位1：135.60  支持位2：135.20

日本央行无限量购债，持有份额创历史新高

美元上涨主要是加息预期上调影响，美联储两位主席讲话，都提到了快速紧缩，令预期再度收紧。此外零售与批发库存低于预期，房价指数上扬，都意味着经济有一定的韧性，有加息的空间。此外，在美股开盘后，消费者预信心指数与制造业指数均创一年来新低，情绪面提供日内下冲动能。

日本央行维持利率政策不变，收到美元一直上涨，美日货币兑短中线能看涨为主。

USDJPY 分析

USDJPY has been in a bull run since long. Fundamentally, the federal reserve is anticipated to increase the interest rates to 50-75 basis points, which would trigger the USD pairs accross the board. We anticipate the market touching down the support level and then sharply increasing back towards our profit target, continuing the long bullish momentum. Market has formed the higher highs and higher lows and is a bullish trend throughout all the time frames. The support price is at 134. Once this is tapped, we will enter the buy positions.

The ascending trendline is not touching the pivot points and has broken out for sells. This breakout sell even if validated, still has the bullish structure on the pair. Until unless the bearish structure is formed, it will not continue moving bearish. 

At the support level, the golden retracement area is formed at the support level and is in confluence with the support. In an uptrend, this sort of confluence is a strong uphold for the markup.

Both the EMA 50 and EMA 200 in a bullish direction, with a bullish death cross. The EMA 50 is expected to retest at the support level after it was broken out for buys, earlier. EMA 200 is still below the current market prices, therefore, we will take the EMA 50 as the confluence point.

RSI is at 54 and CCI is at 45. Both of the oscillators are in a bullish zone, currently at the neutralized levels. The oscillators present a good opportunity in confluence with other technical factors and the neutralized levels, in order to continue moving up.

Be very carefuly with the fed interest rates tonight. 

USDJPY bullish run continuation

The Indian rupee extended losses to the 79.6 per USD mark in mid-August, approaching the record low of 80.2 hit in July as hawkish comments from Fed policymakers supported the greenback. Meanwhile, domestic inflation for July was lower than expected, decelerating for the fourth consecutive month amid slower increases for food and transportation. The reading drew closer to the Reserve Bank of India’s target of 6%, slightly easing concerns that the bank will have to continue its hiking path for an extended period of time to curb inflation. The RBI is expected to ease the pace of rate hikes and raise interest rates by 35bps in September, compared to the the 50bps hike in July. While inflation decelerated, a weak rupee and record-high trade deficit capped expectations of a dovish pivot.

Api Economic

Indian Rupee Depreciates Following CPI

The South African rand was trading around 16.3 per USD, after touching a six-week high of 16.2 on August 10th, as hawkish comments on interest rate hikes by several Fed officials strengthened the dollar. Still, fundamentals hold as the currency is very sensitive to shifts in global market sentiment and the country battles with prolonged worker strikes, rolling blackouts and flood damages in addition to growing global recession fears. The South African Reserve Bank raised the key repo rate by more than expected 75 bps at its July 22nd meeting and signalled further aggressive monetary tightening ahead to tame the surging domestic inflation. Inflation topped 7.4% in June, the highest since May of 2009. Meanwhile, the government is cutting fuel pump prices in an attempt to ease pressure on household finances and cool inflation.

South African Rand Eases

The dollar index managed to regain some ground above the 105 mark, recovering from its lowest level in over a month, as somewhat hawkish remarks from several Federal Reserve policymakers lent optimism to bulls. San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly said that while a 50 bps rate hike in September looks appropriate, she left the door open for a sharpest move to tame sky-high inflation. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans echoed a similar view that the central bank's tightening cycle is far from done. Such remarks came despite softer-than-expected US headline inflation and the first decline in producer prices in more than two years. For the week, the DXY has lost more than 1%.

Dollar Bounces Off Six-Week Low

The offshore yuan strengthened past 6.75 against the dollar, moving towards its highest levels in a month, as softening US consumer and producer price growths in July prompted speculations for peak inflation and a less aggressive Federal Reserve tightening moving forward. This countered weaker-than-expected Chinese inflation numbers for July, with consumer prices rising 2.7% or 20 bps lower than forecasts, while producer prices were up 4.2% or 60 bps lower than analysts predicted. The yuan also found support on expectations that the People’s Bank of China will keep monetary setting unchanged despite pressure for more easing as China continues to grapple with recurring Covid-19 outbreaks, property sector risks and simmering tensions with the US over Taiwan.

Chinese Yuan Rises on Easing Fed Hike View

The British pound was little changed at $1.22, as traders digest the latest GDP figures which showed the UK economy shrank 0.1% in Q2 and 0.6% in June only, with both readings coming half the market forecasts. Although figures were not as bad as expected, they did little to ease concerns that a severe contraction will hit the UK, as skyrocketing prices hurt activity and demand. Early this month, the Bank of England painted a grim economic outlook and projected the UK's longest recession since the global financial crisis while raising interest rates by 50bps, its largest hike since 1995.

Pound Barely Reacts to GDP Figures

The dollar index held its recent decline toward the 105 mark on Friday and was on track to lose more than 1% this week, as softer-than-expected US consumer and producer price growths in July prompted speculations for peak inflation and a less aggressive Federal Reserve tightening moving forward. Markets are now priced for a higher chance of a 50-basis point rate hike in September versus earlier speculation of a bigger 75-basis point increase. In the latest Fed commentary, meanwhile, San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly said that while a half-percentage point rate hike in September “makes sense,” she is open to the possibility of a bigger hike to fight too-high inflation. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari also said that he expects the central bank to raise its policy rate to 3.9% by year-end and to 4.4% by end of 2023, while Chicago Fed President Charles Evans indicated that US rates will top out at 4% next year.

Dollar Heads for Sharp Weekly Loss

The Mexican peso strengthened past the $20 level, the highest in over six weeks boosted by higher interest rates and broad dollar weakness. The central bank of Mexico raised rates by 75 bps to 8.5% in August, following a similar move in June to tame stubbornly high inflation. Mexico's annual inflation rate accelerated to 8.15% in July, the highest since 2000 and slightly above expectations. At the same time, the dollar index weakened to a 1-month low on expectations the Federal Reserve might slow down the pace of interest rate hikes amidst signs that inflation is peaking.

Mexican Peso Appreciates to Over 6-Week High

The dollar index bottomed below the 105 mark, closing in on its lowest level since late June, as markets reassessed the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook following further evidence that inflation could be peaking. Data showed US producer prices declined in July for the first time in over two years, while analysts expected them to increase. The data followed a softer-than-expected US CPI reading on Wednesday, which suggested that the Federal Reserve could slow down its aggressive policy tightening plans. Markets are now pricing a 50 bps hike at the US central bank’s next policy meeting in September.

Dollar Extends Downside Momentum

The Japanese yen held its recent advance to below 133 against the dollar, moving away from a 24-year low of 139.4 reached in mid-July, helped by lower-than-expected US inflation numbers that raised speculations the Federal Reserve may slow the pace of its policy tightening. On the domestic front, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reshuffled Japan’s cabinet and appointed lawmakers loyal to deceased premier Shinzo Abe to key positions, in a move that is likely to continue the country’s aggressive monetary easing that was a key pillar of the “Abenomics” era. Meanwhile, several Bank of Japan officials recently commented that the central bank needed an exit strategy from its massive stimulus, while maintaining that easy monetary settings were needed for the time being as wages must catch up to boost consumption and help Japan’s economic recovery.

Yen Holds Advance After US Inflation Data

The New Zealand dollar held around $0.64, hovering near its highest levels in two months, underpinned by a softer-than-expected US inflation report that sparked a broad rally in risk assets. Easing US inflation also raised hopes for a less aggressive monetary tightening, but Federal Reserve officials pushed back against such expectations and reiterated their commitment to keep raising interest rates to bring inflation significantly lower. On the domestic front, house prices in New Zealand fell in July as high inflation and rising interest rates weighed on demand. Recent data also showed that near-term inflation expectations in the country is forecasted to slow in the third quarter of 2022. Still, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to deliver another 50 basis point rate hike at its August 17 meeting.

NZ Dollar Firms Up on Softer US Inflation

The Australian dollar held just below $0.71, hovering near its highest levels in two months, underpinned by a softer-than-expected US inflation report that sparked a broad rally in risk assets. Easing US inflation also raised hopes for a less aggressive monetary tightening, but Federal Reserve officials pushed back against such expectations and reiterated their commitment to keep raising interest rates to bring inflation significantly lower. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia  raised interest rates for the fourth straight month in July but tempered guidance on future hikes amid expectations of a slowdown in the economy. RBA Governor Philip Lowe said that “the board expects to take further steps in the process of normalising monetary conditions over the months ahead, but it is not on a pre-set path.” This contrasted with his previous remarks that the central bank was intent on bringing interest rates to a “neutral” level of at least 2.5%.

Aussie Holds Gains on Softer US Inflation

The dollar index rose toward 105.5 on Thursday after sliding 1% in the previous session, as traders assessed hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers emphasizing the central bank’s commitment to keep raising interest rates to convincingly tame inflation. In the latest developments, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly warned in an FT interview that it is too early to “declare victory” in the fight against inflation, and that consumer prices remain “far too high and not near our price stability goal.” Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari also said that he expects the central bank to raise its policy rate to 3.9% by year-end and to 4.4% by end of 2023, while Chicago Fed President Charles Evans indicated that US rates will top out at 4% next year. Those remarks came as the headline inflation rate slowed to 8.5% in July 2022 from an over 40-year high of 9.1% in June amid a significant drop in gasoline prices.

Dollar Rises on on Hawkish Fed Remarks

The Mexican peso strengthened toward 20 per USD, the highest in six weeks as the dollar index weakened to a 1-month low after a key inflation reading showed a better-than-expected slowdown in rising prices. Also, Mexico's central bank is expected to raise rates by 75bps on Thursday, following a similar move in June to tame stubbornly high inflation. Mexico's annual inflation rate accelerated to 8.15% in July, the highest since 200 and slightly above expectations.

Mexican Peso Strengthens to 6-Week High

The South African rand appreciated sharply towards 16.2 per USD, the highest since June 28th, after a softer-than-expected US inflation report eased concerns that the Federal Reserve will continue to hike interest rates aggressively, pulling down the dollar. Still, fundamentals hold as the currency is very sensitive to shifts in global market sentiment and the country battles with prolonged worker strikes, rolling blackouts and flood damages in addition to growing global recession fears. The South African Reserve Bank raised the key repo rate by more than expected 75 bps at its July 22nd meeting and signalled further aggressive monetary tightening ahead to tame the surging domestic inflation. Inflation topped 7.4% in June, the highest since May of 2009. Meanwhile, the government is cutting fuel pump prices in an attempt to ease pressure on household finances and cool inflation.

South African Rand Hits 6-Week High

USDCAD decreased to a 8-week low of 1.2764

Canadian Dollar Hits 8-week High

USDCNY decreased to a 4-week low of 6.7215

Chinese Yuan Hits 4-week High

The dollar index broke below the 105 mark for the first time in over a month after a softer-than-expected US inflation reading could encourage the Federal Reserve to go easy on its aggressive policy tightening plans. The annual US inflation rate slowed to 8.5% in July of 2022 from an over 40-year high of 9.1% amid a significant drop in gasoline prices. Core inflation, which removes volatile food and energy prices, also saw a smaller-than-expected increase.

Dollar Hits One-Month Low

AUDUSD increased to a 7-week high of 0.70465

Australian Dollar Hits 7-week High

EURUSD increased to a 4-week high of 1.0292

Euro Hits 4-week High

The offshore yuan weakened toward 6.77 against the dollar, weighed down by softer-than-expected Chinese inflation data. Consumer prices in China increased 2.7% in July from a year ago, rising at the fastest pace in two years but coming in lower than the 2.9% forecast. Producer prices also rose 4.2%, the lowest in 17 months and below the 4.8% increase predicted by analysts. Relatively mild inflation pressures in the mainland support the Chinese central bank’s stance of keeping policy accommodative as authorities try to support an economic recovery in the face of rising global interest rates. The yuan also remains susceptible to sharp moves amid resurgent domestic Covid-19 outbreaks, property sector risks and simmering tensions with the US over Taiwan.

Vasl Capital

Aug 12 2022

USDJPY continuation for the short setup

Vasl Capital

Aug 10 2022

USDJPY shorts from retracement

1

Vasl Capital

Jul 18 2022

USDJPY shorts

Hurley Liu

Jun 29 2022

日本央行无限量购债，持有份额创历史新高

Wen Tsai

Jun 29 2022

USDJPY 分析

Vasl Capital

Jun 15 2022

USDJPY bullish run continuation

1

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