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Brazil's consumer price inflation rate stood at 5.77 percent year-on-year in January 2023, little-changed from 5.79 percent in the previous month and slightly below market consensus of 5.80 percent. It was also the lowest rate since February 2021 helped by a stronger real, although it remained well above the central bank's 1.75-4.75 percent target range. Inflation slowed for both food and beverages (11.07 percent vs 11.64 percent in December) and healthcare (11.21 percent vs 11.43 percent), while transport prices continued to fall (-0.64 percent vs -1.29 percent). On the other hand, housing inflation accelerated to 0.25 percent from 0.07 percent. On a monthly basis, consumer prices advanced 0.53 percent in January, easing from a 0.63 percent rise in December.

Brazil Inflation Rate Nears 2-Year Low

Retail sales in Brazil fell by 2.6 percent from a month earlier in December of 2022, following an upwardly revised 0.9 percent decrease in November and worse than market expectations of a 0.7 percent decline. It was the biggest decrease in retail sales since August 2021. Sales dropped the most for clothing & footwear (-6.1 percent vs -2.1 percent in November); other articles for personal and domestic use  (-2.9 percent vs -0.9 percent); furniture and home appliances (-1.6 percent vs 1.9 percent) and fuels & lubricants (-1.6 percent vs 5.4 percent). Year-on-year, retail sales went up 0.4 percent, less than forecasts of a 2.4 percent rise. Considering full 2022, sales increased by 1 percent.

Brazil Retail Sales Fall More than Expected

Stock futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones rose 0.7% on Thursday, while those linked to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 0.8% and 1.2%, respectively, as investors digested a slew of earnings reports and awaited US economic data. Walt Disney soared more than 6% in premarket trading after topping earnings estimates while announcing a restructuring plan that includes job cuts and cost savings. PepsiCo added roughly 1.5% as the soda maker reported quarterly results that surprised investors on the upside. Investors now await weekly jobless claims numbers for clues on how much further the US Federal Reserve would go with interest rate hikes. This upside momentum came despite hawkish remarks from several Fed policymakers over how far interest rates will have to go to bring down inflation to its target.

US Stock Futures Rise

Mexico’s annual inflation rate accelerated for the second straight month to 7.91% in January 2023, up from 7.82% in the prior month and above market expectations of 7.89%. Inflation remained well above the central bank’s 2%–4% target range for the 23rd month. Main upward pressure continued to come from prices of food & non-alcoholic beverages (12.77% vs 12.70% in December), mostly fruit and vegetables (10.17% vs 7.22%). The annual core inflation rate edged up to 8.45% in January 2023, from 8.35% in the prior month, above market estimates of 8.41%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.68% in January, the most in five months and slightly above market estimates of a 0.64% increase.

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