Gold is bearish on higher timeframes as the structure still remains bearish. The level of 1835 was rejected and market started to drop down.  At the current moment, we have a broken support which has now turned into a resistance. This resistance is priced at 1835. We will be looking to short the market at this price. Based on the structure, we have a typical break and retest setup. On a longer picture, we still anticipate the gold on a lower side. We will continue looking for shorts until the market shows us bullish direction on the break of the structure.

The ascending trendline has been broken out for sells inducing the breakout sells. After the breakout sell, market retested the trendline and is now heading downwards continuing the trend. The descending trendline has been retested by the price action, and was wicked with the rejection.

The retracement area of 75-78.6% was retested at the level where there was a trendline rejection. At this level, we see a massive wicking which also proved to be a stop hunt. With that fact, market started to continue its bearish leg. With the descend, market also broke the lower support level, which now has turned into a resistance.

Both the EMA's are bearish with a bearish death cross. The EMA 200 was broken out for sells after the fakeout towards the upside. After the breakout sell, EMA 50 was also broken out. Once market retraces back, we may see a correction towards the tapping the resistance level in confluence with the EMA 50.  Now, this EMA 50 has been retested at the resistance level with the retracement level and trendline retest combined, which means we have a confluence of multiple factors at the resistance level.

RSI is at 40 and CCI is at -88. This indicates that both the oscillators are in a bearish region. The window towards the downside has more scalability towards the over extended sell side. We need to be vary for this condition being met.

Gold stalling

Gold is bearish on higher timeframes as the structure still remains bearish. Last week, there was a corrective move on gold which pushed it towards the price of 1871. This level was rejected and market started to drop down.  At the current moment, we have a broken support which has now turned into a resistance. This resistance is priced at 1838. We will be looking to short the market at this price. On a longer picture, we still anticipate the gold on a lower side. We will continue looking for shorts until the market shows us bullish direction on the break of the structure.

The ascending trendline has been broken out for sells inducing the breakout sells. We will be looking to enter on the impulse of this breakout sell as we anticipate the pressure on the bearish side building up. 

There is a minor retracement at the resistance level which was support earlier. This retracement will be at 61.8%. Although market has already tapped the retracement level and is heading down, we are going to be entering on the impulse move of the breakout sells.

Both the EMA's are bearish with a bearish death cross. The EMA 200 was broken out for sells after the fakeout towards the upside. After the breakout sell, EMA 50 was also broken out. Once market retraces back, we may see a correction towards the tapping the resistance level in confluence with the EMA 50.  Now this EMA 50 has been retested at the resistance level which means we have a confluence of multiple factors at the resistance level. 

RSI is at 48 and CCI is at -32. This indicates that both the oscillators are in a bearish region. The window towards the downside has more scalability towards the over extended sell side. We need to be vary for this condition being met.

Gold shorts continuing

Gold is bearish on higher timeframes as the structure still remains bearish. Last week, there was a corrective move on gold which pushed it towards the price of 1871. This level was rejected and market started to drop down. Also, the CPI correction triggered the trend towards the bearish side as the data was strong.  At the current moment, we have a broken support which has now turned into a resistance. This resistance is priced at 1852. We will be looking to short the market at this price. On a longer picture, we still anticipate the gold on a lower side. We will continue looking for shorts until the market shows us bullish direction on the break of the structure.

The ascending trendline has been broken out for sells inducing the breakout sells. This breakout sell needs to be retraced at the resistance level. This point will be our short selling price.

There is no retracement factor associated with the resistance level with this setup. We need to assess the fact without retracement at this given resistance level.

Both the EMA's are bearish with a bearish death cross. The EMA 200 was broken out for sells after the fakeout towards the upside. After the breakout sell, EMA 50 was also broken out. Once market retraces back, we may see a correction towards the tapping the resistance level in confluence with the EMA 50. Therefore, giving us another factor to short. At the moment, EMA 200 has been retested at the resistance level which makes it solid level for the market to make another bearish leg.

RSI is at 50 and CCI is at -25. This indicates that both the oscillators have been neutralized. The window towards the downside has more scalability towards the over extended sell side. We need to be vary for this condition being met.

Short run on Gold

Gold is bearish on higher timeframes as the structure still remains bearish. Last week, there was a corrective move on gold which pushed it towards the price of 1871. This level was rejected and market started to drop down. Also, the CPI correction triggered the trend towards the bearish side as the data was strong.  At the current moment, we have a broken support which has now turned into a resistance. This resistance is priced at 1840. We will be looking to short the market at this price. On a longer picture, we still anticipate the gold on a lower side. We will continue looking for shorts until the market shows us bullish direction on the break of the structure.

Both the EMA's are bearish with a bearish death cross. The EMA 200 was broken out for sells after the fakeout towards the upside. After the breakout sell, EMA 50 was also broken out. Once market retraces back, we may see a correction towards the tapping the resistance level in confluence with the EMA 50. Therefore, giving us another factor to short.

RSI is at 34 and CCI is at -140. This indicates that both the oscillators are in an extended over sold condition. This needs to be neaturalized as for us to take the shorts. Shorting right now becomes risky as the parameters are at the sold conditions which need correction. Once the neutralized levels are tapped and the market has other technical factors aligned, we will take the short position.

Gold freefall from 1840

Gold is bearish on higher timeframes as the structure still remains bearish. Last week, there was a corrective move on gold which pushed it towards the price of 1865. This level was rejected and market started to drop down. Also, the NFP triggered the trend towards the bearish side as the data was strong.  At the current moment, we have a broken support which has now turned into a resistance. This resistance is priced at 1955. We will be looking to short the market at this price. On a longer picture, we still anticipate the gold on a lower side. We will continue looking for shorts until the market shows us bullish direction on the break of the structure. 

The ascending trendline has been broken out for sells inducing the breakout sells. This breakout sell needs to be retraced at the resistance level. This point will be our short selling price. 

RSI is at 50 and CCI is at 35. This indicates that both the oscillators are near their neutralized levels. With this, we need the oscillators to head towards the bearish region, in confluence with the technical factors favoring the bearish side. 

Looking for shorts on Gold once again

On a higher time frame, gold is still bearish but on H4, it is currently in a correction phase and tends to reach the potential resistance where we will be looking to short it. The potential price of the shorts is 1870. This price, has a magnitude of sell orders which can drive the price down massively. Earlier the price we had to start the bullish structure was at 1826, which was breached, and will act as a support now. This support has weaken due to multiple touches on the support level. That being said, we are still bearish on the pair and will continue looking for shorts.

Gold is basically in an ascending channel, which depicts the bearish continuation pattern. This will be confirmed after the market takes the breakout sell from the trendline and has been validated by opening and closing below the trendline. With this, we will add another position.

The resistance level is in confluence with the golden retracement area of 75-78.6%. This level of confluence is strong enough to bring th gold down.

EMA 50 has just been breached for the bullish side but the EMA 200, is still bearish and has not been tapped yet. The death cross is still bearish. The EMA 200 might be tapped and be in confluence with the resistance and retracement level. This cofluence of multiple technical factors will be a strong foot hold for the market to continue down from h4.

RSI and CCI are at 54: 50 respectively. There is minor window towards the over bought area. We are anticipating the market to tap the over bought area and then continue moving down. We may see the oscillators form a bearish divergence. This divergence will act as a final catalyst for the bearish leg.

Stacking on Gold shorts

Stocks rise as yields hit two-week low; copper slumps By Reuters  Investing.com
Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD bears have the upper hand below 200-DMA amid hawkish Fed  FXStreet
Gold Prices Today: Yellow metal to come under selling pr…

Investing.com

Stocks rise as yields hit two-week low; copper slumps By Reuters - Investing.com

Gold prices sank nearly 3% as traders priced in the chance for a 75-basis-point Fed rate hike following Friday's red-hot CPI data. Surging real yields spell more trouble for bullion prices.

DailyFX

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD May Break 1,800 on FOMC

Gold was steady at under the $1,740 per ounce mark on Wednesday, extending this week’s sell-off to September lows as heightened recession fears and expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes by major central banks drove investors out of bullion and into the US dollar. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting showed that policymakers agreed that borrowing cost will need to rise further to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched, ramping up bets of aggressive rate hikes and strengthening the appeal of the dollar compared to gold. In the meantime, the European Central bank is also expected to start raising borrowing costs this month and signaled an accelerated tightening path for the rest of Q3 if inflation remains high, with investors expecting that the central bank’s deposit rate could move to positive territory by October.

Api Economic

Gold Retreats to 9-Month Low

WTI crude futures fluctuated between gains and three month lows amid heightened volatility on Wednesday, with the contract more than 1% lower at $98.2 in afternoon trades. The selloff continued after slumping 8.2% in the previous session, which was the biggest daily drop since March, on weaker demand prospects and recession woes. China reported new coronavirus cases, raising concerns of more lockdowns. At the same time, the Norwegian government ended an oil & gas workers strike yesterday, avoiding a 341K loss of barrels of oil by the weekend. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan said it would see options to reverse the Russian court rule to suspend the Caspian Pipeline Consortium for 30 days, which would further strain the ongoing historical crunch in the global oil market, although reports showed exports were still flowing.

WTI Oil Futures Pare Losses on Volatile Session

Gold retreated further and dropped below $1,750 an ounce on Wednesday, extending this week’s sell-off to September lows as heightened recession fears and expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes by major central banks drove investors out of commodities and into the US dollar. The Federal Reserve cemented expectations of further monetary tightening in the third quarter, with policymakers previously advocating for another 75bps in their July meeting to curb surging inflation. In the meantime, the European Central bank is also expected to start raising borrowing costs this month and signaled an accelerated tightening path for the rest of Q3 if inflation remains high, ramping up bets that the central bank’s deposit rate could move to positive territory by October.

Gold Extends Decline to 9-Month Low

US natural gas futures were in negative territory for the second session in a row on Wednesday, trading around $5.5 per million British thermal units, an inch away from levels not seen since last March. Bearish catalysts continued to prevail ahead of a EIA weekly inventory report, which is expected to show another above-average increase in last week's natural gas stocks. The US domestic market has absorbed an additional 2 bcf of natural gas per day since the explosion at Freeport LNG, which is now expected to return to partial operations in October, according to the company. Still, forecasts pointing to slightly hotter weather and lower production estimates have helped put a floor on prices around the $5.5 level.

Natural Gas Eye Over 3-Month Lows

Brent decreased to a 8-week low of 101.05 USD/Bbl

Brent Hits 8-week Low

Natural gas prices in Europe hovered around a 5-month high, with TFF futures trading at above 165 euros a megawatt-hour as the key pipeline Nord Stream 1 is set to shut for maintenance on July 11-21 and may not return to full capacity, threatening the bloc's objectives to fill 80% of storage capacity before winter.  Still, Norway’s oil and gas unions agreed to put a stop to the strike, calming nerves about a significant reduction in the Scandinavian country's gas output and shortages in Europe. Also, the German government is preparing to rescue energy companies buckling under the cost of soaring gas import prices. Germany has already enacted the second stage of its emergency gas plan, which includes tighter monitoring of the market and the reactivation of coal-fired plants.

Gas Prices in Europe Hover at 5-Month High

Brent crude futures cut early gains to edge lower to $102 a barrel on Wednesday, after sinking almost 10% in the previous session, which was the biggest daily fall since March. Market volatility is set to continue as investors weigh prospects of falling demand due to slowing growth and tight supply. China reported new coronavirus cases, raising concerns of more lockdowns. At the same time, a strike in the Norwegian oil and gas sector came to an end yesterday, avoiding a 341K loss of barrels of oil by the weekend. Meanwhile, Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which takes oil from Kazakhstan to the Black Sea via Russia, has been told by a Russian court to suspend activity for 30 days although Reuters reported that exports were still flowing.

Brent Crude Cuts Gains

WTI crude futures reversed early gains to fall below $100 a barrel on Wednesday, extending an 8.2% loss in the previous session, which was the biggest daily drop since March. Market volatility is set to continue as investors weigh prospects of falling demand due to slowing growth and tight supply. China reported new coronavirus cases, raising concerns of more lockdowns. At the same time, a strike in the Norwegian oil and gas sector came to an end yesterday, avoiding a 341K loss of barrels of oil by the weekend. Meanwhile, Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which takes oil from Kazakhstan to the Black Sea via Russia, has been told by a Russian court to suspend activity for 30 days although Reuters reported that exports were still flowing.

WTI Crude Back Below $100

The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index slumped 2.6% to 2,043 points on Wednesday, the lowest since April 12th, extending losses for the fourth straight session, amid lower demand. The capesize index, which tracks iron ore and coal cargos of 150,000 tonnes, declined 4% to its lowest since April 22 at 2,000 points; and the panamax index, which tracks about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes of coal and grains cargoes, fell for the 12th straight session, shedding 3.2% to a near five-month low of 2,363 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index lost 18 points to 2.247 points, heading into the tenth day of its losing streak.

Baltic Exchange Dry Index Down for 4th Session

Brent crude futures bounced back to near $104 a barrel on Wednesday, after sinking almost 10% in the previous session, although investors continue to worry over tight supply and lower demand as recession risks linger. Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which takes oil from Kazakhstan to the Black Sea via Russia, has been told by a Russian court to suspend activity for 30 days although Reuters reported that exports were still flowing. At the same time, a strike in the Norwegian oil and gas sector came to an end yesterday, avoiding a 341K loss of barrels of oil by the weekend. Still, supply pressures remain, with OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo saying Tuesday the oil industry was “under siege” due to years of underinvestment, and adding that shortages could be eased if extra supplies from Iran and Venezuela were allowed.

Brent Oil Back to $104

WTI crude futures traded around $100 a barrel on Wednesday, after sinking 8.2% in the previous session to below $100, although investors continue to worry over tight supply and lower demand as recession risks linger. Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which takes oil from Kazakhstan to the Black Sea via Russia, has been told by a Russian court to suspend activity for 30 days although Reuters reported that exports were still flowing. At the same time, a strike in the Norwegian oil and gas sector came to an end yesterday, avoiding a 341K loss of barrels of oil by the weekend. Still, supply pressures remain, with OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo saying Tuesday the oil industry was “under siege” due to years of underinvestment, and adding that shortages could be eased if extra supplies from Iran and Venezuela were allowed.

Oil Prices Little Changed, Supply Concerns Linger

Copper, which is a leading indicator of the health of the global economy, extended losses toward the $3.4-per-pound mark, a level not seen since November 2020, as fears of a demand-sapping recession continued to hang over the market. The risk of recession in the US is growing as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy amid stubborn inflation and Europe’s economic outlook is darkening due to soaring gas prices. Even worse, another round of massive testing in Shanghai revives concerns about the recovery of the top consumer of the red metal.

Copper Extends Losses to 19-Month Low

Sugar futures on ICE steadied below 18 cents per pound in early July, hovering around levels not seen in four months, tracking lower gasoline prices as heightened recession fears lowered the expectations for fuel demand and increased expectations of sugar supply. The dented economic outlook led commodity speculators to dump their long sugar positions, as lower fuel prices incentivize producers to allocate cane to mill the more profitable sweetener instead of distilling biofuels. Commodity funds have been keeping close to attention to energy costs since fossil fuel prices since surged in 2022, as it directly affects supply in major producer Brazil. Data from Brazil’s industry leader Unica showed 55.6% of cane crushing was used for ethanol in June, up from 53.7% a year ago.

Sugar at 4-Month Low

UK natural gas futures declined to 240-pence-a-therm from a five-month high after Norway’s oil and gas unions agreed to put a stop to the strike, calming nerves about a significant reduction in the Scandinavian country's gas output. Norway is the world's third-largest exporter of natural gas and the UK's primary gas supplier. Meanwhile, the Norwegian government approved higher production from the Troll, Gina Krog, Duva, Oseberg, Asgard and Mikkel fields to maintain record exports. Gazprom decided to limit flows in the main Nord Stream pipeline to just 40% of its capacity, significantly raising the risk of a natural gas shortage in Europe by next winter, and the key pipeline is set to shut for works on July 11-21.

UK Natural Gas Prices Fall from 5-Month High

Natural gas prices in Europe fell from a 5-month high, with TFF futures falling to around 155 euros a megawatt-hour after Norway’s oil and gas unions agreed to put a stop to the strike, calming nerves about a significant reduction in the Scandinavian country's gas output and shortages in Europe. Also, the German government is preparing to rescue energy companies buckling under the cost of soaring gas import prices. Germany has already enacted the second stage of its emergency gas plan, which includes tighter monitoring of the market and the reactivation of coal-fired plants. Russia diminished gas flows through its biggest Nord Stream pipeline by 60% and the link is scheduled for a full shutdown next week for maintenance.

Gas Prices in Europe Ease from 5-Month High

Malaysian palm oil futures extended losses to below the MYR 4,000-per-tonne level, the lowest level since July 2021 as supply is outpacing demand. Top palm oil producer Indonesia increased its export quota and it now allows palm oil producers to export seven times the amount it sold domestically, up from previously five times, to reduce high domestic inventories. Indonesia has recently announced an export acceleration scheme to ship at least 1 million tonnes of crude palm oil and derivatives and also reduced the maximum export tax rate and levy for crude palm oil to $488 per tonne from $575 per tonne to boost shipments. At the same time, in Malaysia, the production is expected to increase in the months ahead on higher crops and as migrant workers return. Malaysia's palm oil inventories at the end-June likely climbed to their highest levels in seven months, as exports for June fell between 10% and 13.4% from the same period in May, according to cargo surveyors.

Palm Oil Futures Fall Further to Near 1-Year Low

Gold stabilized around $1,770 an ounce on Wednesday following a sharp selloff in the previous session that pushed bullion to a seven-month low, as mounting recession fears drove investors out of commodities and into the safe-haven dollar. The metal also came under pressure from aggressive interest rate hikes globally aimed at curbing high inflation, with the pace of policy tightening among major central banks expected to continue in the second half of 2022. Last week, Federal Reserve policymakers cemented expectations for further monetary tightening, signaling another 75 basis point rate hike in July to arrest surging prices. The European Central Bank is also expected to start raising interest rates this month and bring borrowing costs into positive territory in the third quarter.

Gold Steadies After Dollar-Induced Selloff

Soybeans decreased to a 13-week low of 1568 USd/Bu

Soybeans Hits 13-week Low

Palm Oil decreased to a 51-week low of 3945 MYR/T

Palm Oil Hits 51-week Low

Brent crude futures bounced back above $104 per barrel on Wednesday after dropping nearly 8% in the previous session, as mounting fears that a recession will hurt demand were balanced by persistent supply concerns. Analysts also attributed Wednesday’s bounce on short-covering and bargain hunting. Highlighting supply tightness, OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said Tuesday the oil industry was “under siege” due to years of underinvestment, and added that shortages could be eased if extra supplies from Iran and Venezuela were allowed. Meanwhile, oil prices have been declining since mid-June as concerns about a potential recession rattled financial markets. Citibank said oil prices could tumble to $65 a barrel by the end of year if an ”increasingly likely” recession hits the global economy.

Vasl Capital

Jun 24 2022

Gold stalling

2

Vasl Capital

Jun 21 2022

Gold shorts continuing

1

Vasl Capital

Jun 17 2022

Short run on Gold

1

Vasl Capital

Jun 13 2022

Gold freefall from 1840

1

Vasl Capital

Jun 06 2022

Looking for shorts on Gold once again

1

Vasl Capital

May 29 2022

Stacking on Gold shorts

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