Uruguay’s annual inflation rate rose to 4.25% in June 2026 from 3.77% in the prior month. The increase was driven by rises in transport costs (7.6%), education (6.8%), restaurants and hotels (6.6%), healthcare (6%), personal care and social protection (5.6%), utilities (4.9%), and information and communication (4.3%). Food costs were 2.6% higher. In contrast, prices of  clothing and footwear prices fell 5.2%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.4%.

Uruguay Inflation Rises to 4.25%

The Ibovespa gained 0.7% to close at 174,070 on Friday as investors assessed May industrial production and June services PMI data. The S&P Global Services PMI showed the sector expanded at a slightly faster pace in June as demand improved, supporting domestically oriented stocks. Retail shares led gains, with Ultrapar rising 3.5% and Magazine Luiza advancing 4.2%. Financial stocks also moved higher, with Itaúsa adding 0.7% and B3 gaining 1%. Meanwhile, oil prices remained near pre-conflict levels amid optimism over US-Iran peace efforts, easing concerns about energy-driven inflation. Petrobras rose 0.8% despite lower crude prices after inaugurating the Pre-Salt Technology Center, a semi-industrial-scale research facility built with R$300 million in funding. Meanwhile, industrial production rose just 0.2% year-on-year in May, well below forecasts of a 1.3% increase. Investors also monitored the US decision to launch a public consultation on Brazil's trade policies and practices.

Ibovespa Rises on Stronger Services Data

The S&P/TSX Composite Index gained 0.9% to close at a record high of 35,275 on Friday, led by gold mining stocks after weaker-than-expected US jobs data boosted hopes for a more dovish Fed. Gold prices rose after US nonfarm payrolls increased by roughly half the expected amount in June. Agnico Eagle gained 2.7%, while WPM and Barrick advanced 2.6% and 2.4%, respectively. Meanwhile, BHP Group agreed to transfer its San Manuel property in Arizona to Faraday Copper (+1.1%) in exchange for a 30% stake in the Canadian miner, which is seeking to develop a copper hub around its adjacent Copper Creek project. Oil prices remained near pre-conflict levels amid optimism over US-Iran peace efforts, easing concerns about energy-driven inflation and supporting financial stocks, with Scotiabank rising 1% and Brookfield adding 1.1%. Separately, AtkinsRéalis climbed 3.6% after saying Turkey could begin formal talks on a CANDU nuclear power plant following an early reactor review later this summer.

TSX Hits Record High on Gold Rally

The Mexican peso traded little changed at 17.5 per USD in July as broad US dollar weakness was offset by uncertainty surrounding the USMCA review. The dollar came under pressure after weaker-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls data for June reduced expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes. The return of oil prices to pre-conflict levels also eased concerns about energy-driven inflation, reinforcing expectations that the Fed could remain on hold through year-end. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding negotiations to revise the USMCA continued to weigh on the economic outlook and reduced prospects for future rate hikes. Also, domestic data strengthened the case for dovish policymakers at Banxico. Mexico's annual headline inflation fell more than expected to a ten-month low of 3.55% in the first half of June, while core inflation also eased by more than forecast, supporting expectations of lower interest rates.

Mexican Peso Steady on Dovish Fed Expectations

Brazil's 10-year government bond yield rose to 14.6% in July as weaker-than-expected fiscal data heightened concerns over the country's public finances. Gross public debt climbed to 81.1% of GDP in May, above market expectations of 80.7%, while the primary deficit widened to R$56.1 billion, exceeding forecasts of a R$53.5 billion shortfall. The deterioration in fiscal accounts reinforced expectations that borrowing costs could remain elevated. Political developments also weighed, as an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey showed President Lula holding a 6.5-point lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in a hypothetical runoff, reinforcing expectations of a more expansionary fiscal stance. Meanwhile, annual inflation rose above the central bank's upper tolerance limit to exceed 4.8% in the first half of June. Offsetting some of the pressure, formal job creation slowed to about 73,000 positions in May, below forecasts of 115,000, pointing to a gradual cooling in the labor market.

Brazil Bond Yields Climb Amid Fiscal Concerns

Canada's 10-year government bond yield held steady at 3.44% in July as lower oil prices and weaker-than-expected US jobs data reinforced expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy outlook. Oil prices remained near pre-conflict levels amid optimism over US-Iran peace efforts, easing concerns about energy-driven inflation and supporting expectations that the BoC will keep interest rates unchanged if disinflation continues. Meanwhile, North American bond yields came under pressure after weak US labor market data reduced expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. Uncertainty surrounding negotiations to revise the USMCA also weighed on Canada's economic outlook, dampening prospects for future BoC tightening. At the same time, the Bank of Canada's preferred core inflation measures remained close to the 2% target in May despite higher energy prices, supporting the view that the inflationary effects of the Iran conflict are likely to be temporary.

Canada 10-Year Yield Holds at 3.44%

Tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz picked up sharply in early July. Energy prices sank but long-term yields remain higher, shifting monetary policy back to the market's spotlight. The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its June meeting to unveil insights on a divided FOMC. On the data front, the US will release the ISM Services PMI, existing home sales, and its full trade balance. The ECB will also release monetary policy accounts. Germany and Italy will publish industrial output data, while Germany will join France in posting trade flows. A busy week of economic data in Japan will be headlined by consumer spending, machine tool orders, producer prices, and the current account at a time of pressure on the yen and JGBs. China will unveil its inflation rate. On policy decisions, the RBNZ will determine its interest rate. Elsewhere, OPEC will meet and define output levels on improved trade routes.

Week Ahead - Jul 6th

The Canadian dollar traded near 1.42 per USD in July, remaining close to a one-year low as pressure from lower oil prices outweighed a softer the US dollar following their weak jobs report. The Canadian currency continued to face headwinds from lower global oil prices, which have reduced Canada's terms-of-trade advantage and reinforced expectations that the BoC will maintain a dovish policy stance if disinflation continues. Domestic data provided only limited support, pointing to modest manufacturing growth and a labor market that remains soft but is showing signs of stabilizing. These conditions are expected to keep the BoC on hold. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding negotiations to revise the USMCA continued to weigh on the economic outlook and reduced prospects for future rate hikes. The US dollar, however, remained under pressure at the turn of the month as weak US jobs data lowered expectations of a near-term Fed rate hike.

Canadian Dollar Remains Near One-Year Low

The Brazilian real rose to 5.17 per USD from the three-month low of 5.22 on July 2nd as weak labor data from the US threatened to stretch the rate differential between the Fed and the BCB. The interest rate differential remains supportive for the real, with Brazil's benchmark Selic rate at 14.25% compared with the US policy range of 3.50%-3.75%. The wide yield gap continued to attract foreign inflows and support the Brazilian currency. Domestic gross public debt rose above forecasts in May, while primary deficit was wider than expected. The deterioration in fiscal accounts reinforced expectations of higher-for-longer borrowing costs and persistent upward pressure on interest rates. In addition, Brazil’s annual inflation rose past 4.8% in the first half of June, above the central bank's upper target band of 4.5%

Brazilian Real Strengthens as Fed Rate Hike Bets Ease

The FTSE MIB Index gained 391 points or 0.75 percent on Friday to close at 52819 points. Gains were led by Amplifon (4.71%), Saipem (3.69%) and Lottomatica (3.67%). Biggest losers were Stellantis N.V. (-3.60%), Brunello Cucinelli (-0.70%) and Azimut Holding (-0.52%).

The FTSE MIB Index Closes 0.75% Higher

The DAX Index went up by 198 points or 0.78 percent on Friday to close at 25779 points. The rise was led by E.ON (4.38%), Siemens (2.58%) and Daimler Truck Holding AG (2.18%). On the downside, the weakerst performers were Rheinmetall (-2.27%), SAP (-1.62%) and Qiagen NV (-1.33%).

The DAX Index Closes 0.78% Higher

The CAC 40 Index rose 41 points or 0.48 percent on Friday to close at 8516 points. Leading the gains are ArcelorMittal (5.89%), Edenred (3.73%) and Veolia (2.88%). Top losers were Stellantis NV (-3.37%), Essilor (-1.87%) and Kering (-1.47%).

The CAC 40 Index Closes 0.48% Higher

The FTSE 100 Index gained 21 points or 0.19 percent on Friday to close at 10673 points. Gains were led by Mondi (2.42%), Weir (2.33%) and Intermediate Capital (1.84%). Biggest losers were Intercontinental Hotels (-2.36%), Entain (-2.26%) and Pearson (-1.73%).

The FTSE 100 Index Closes 0.19% Higher

The FTSE MIB rose 0.8% to close at 52,819 on Friday, with gains broad-based across sectors. Amplifon led the advance, climbing 4.7%, followed by Lottomatica (4.0%). Saipem gained 3.6% after announcing a new contract through its joint venture. AI-related stocks also outperformed ahead of financial statements, lifting Prysmian (3.0%) and STMicroelectronics (1.5%). Data centers-linked demand extended gains for utilities, led by A2A (2.0%) and Enel (1.4%). Leonardo added 1.1% after its Edgewing joint venture secured a £4.6 billion contract, while Avio and Fincantieri each rose around 1%. Banks remained supported as expectations of further interest rate hikes eased, with Mediobanca and BPER Banca both up 1.1%, and Banca Mediolanum gaining 0.9%. Insurers also advanced, led by Unipol (1.5%) and Generali (0.8%). On the downside, Stellantis fell 3.6% while luxury stocks lagged, with Brunello Cucinelli down 1.1%. For the week, the index gained 3.85%, rebounding from the previous week's decline.

FTSE MIB Posts Weekly Gain

The FTSE 100 rose 0.3% to 10679 on Friday, the highest since March 2 and following a 1.7% advance on Thursday. Utility companies were among the best performers, with SSE climbing around 1.5%, National Grid adding 1.3%, Centrica expanding 1.1%, and Severn Trent rising over 0.5%. Also, mining stocks supported the upward trajectory, as precious metals miner Fresnillo rose more than 1%, while Anglo American advanced by over 1%. Overall market trading volumes were thin due to the US Independence Day public holiday closure. For the week, the UK index added 1.6%, following a 1.4% rise in the previous period.

FTSE 100 Rises to 4-Month High

The CAC 40 rose 0.4% to close at 8,508 on Friday, extending the previous session's gains to its highest level since late February as weaker-than-expected US jobs data prompted investors to scale back expectations for Fed rate hikes. US employment growth slowed sharply in June, while downward revisions to the prior two months pointed to a softer labor market, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month and possibly through September. Meanwhile, eurozone inflation continued to ease toward the ECB's target in June, reducing pressure for further policy tightening. Domestically, France's industrial production fell 0.1% month-on-month in May, outperforming expectations for a 0.4% decline. Industrials led gains, with Schneider Electric rising 1.5%, Airbus adding 1.1%, and Safran advancing 1%. In contrast, luxury stocks underperformed, with L'Oréal down 1.4% and Kering losing 1.6%.

CAC 40 Hits 4-Month High

The DAX 40 rose 0.9% on Friday, breaking above the 25,800 mark to set another record high and extend gains for a fourth straight session. Market sentiment remained positive, supported by fading expectations of further monetary tightening, optimism about the German reform package and hopes that the conflict in the Middle East could be resolved. Utilities, techs, autos, banks and industrials were the top performing sectors. Among the biggest gainers were E.ON (+4.2%) and Siemens (+2.6%) after Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded the stock to "Hold" from "Reduce". GEA added 1.9% after RBC upgraded the stock to "Outperform" from "Sector Perform." On the downside, Rheinmetall fell 2.3%, as the defense group assessed the impact of the German government's decision to cancel the F126 frigate project. The company warned that the revenue hit could reach up to €300 million this year unless mitigating measures are implemented. The index advanced 4.7% in the week.

DAX 40 Rises to Record High

European stocks rose to new records on Friday amid an improving macroeconomic backdrop for equities and a bounce for companies with exposure to the speculative AI trade. The Euro STOXX 50 closed 0.9% higher at 6,417 and the STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.7% to 653. A session of thinner trading due to the holiday in the US put the spotlight on the tech sector, trimming its losses from a volatile week as investors reconsidered risks that chip producers and AI hyperscalers are overbought. ASML rose 3.7%, tracking Asian counterparts, and Infineon gained 1.2%. Meanwhile, companies with participation in data center operation gained with Siemens adding 2.5%and Schneider gaining 1.5%, while utilities Iberdrola and Enel rose 1.5%. While sovereign yields remained higher in the long end, lower yields for shorter maturities supported banks with BBVA and Deutsche Bank adding 1%. Gains consolidated as a soft jobs report in the US and inflation report in the Eurozone trimmed rate cut bets by central banks.

European Stocks Close at Records

The pound held at $1.335, its highest in two weeks, with a 1% weekly gain as the dollar weakened on disappointing US jobs data. The US added just 57,000 jobs last month, far below forecasts, while unemployment fell to 4.2% as workers left the labor force. The pound’s gains were limited by the Bank of England’s dovish stance. Governor Andrew Bailey highlighted a slowing UK economy and stated that the BoE would not rush to respond to rising oil prices. He noted that inflation remains on track to reach 2%, though later than previously expected, while also ruling out near-term rate cuts. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh acknowledged easing inflation expectations but reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to its 2% target. In UK politics, markets weighed the likelihood of Ed Miliband becoming Chancellor, with fiscal concerns easing after Andy Burnham’s discipline pledge. Sterling is unlikely to see major political impact until late July, when Burnham is set to become Prime Minister.

Pound Holds at Two-Week High

UK 10-year gilt yields hovered just below 4.8% as the Bank of England’s dovish stance and weaker-than-expected US jobs data led investors to scale back rate hike expectations for both the UK and US. Despite this, yields rose 6 basis points for the week as traders adjusted positions after the initial drop following the US-Iran deal, with additional upward pressure from rising long-term yields in Japan amid concerns over increased spending. On monetary policy, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey maintained a cautious tone, highlighting a slowing UK economy and stating the BoE would not rush to respond to rising oil prices. He noted inflation remains on track to reach 2%, though later than previously expected, while ruling out near-term rate cuts. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh noted easing inflation expectations but reaffirmed the Fed’s 2% target. US jobs data showed only 57,000 jobs added last month, with unemployment falling to 4.2% as workers left the labor force.

UK Gilt Yields Steady Near 4.8% as Rate Hike Expectations Ease

The euro ended the week just above $1.14, gaining 0.5% as the dollar weakened following disappointing US nonfarm payrolls. The US economy added only 57,000 jobs last month, far below expectations, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.2% as workers left the labor force. The euro’s advance was capped by softer Eurozone inflation and dovish comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde, which reduced expectations for a third ECB rate hike this year. Markets still favor a second hike as the most likely outcome. June data showed headline inflation slowing to 2.8% from 3.2% in May, below forecasts, while core inflation eased to 2.4%, also missing expectations. At the ECB’s Sintra Forum, Lagarde noted that risks to euro-area inflation and growth had diminished, citing lower energy price pressures from the US-Iran peace deal.

Euro Books 0.5% Weekly Gain

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield rose to 2.93%, marking its first weekly increase since early June with a nearly 9 bp rise. Traders adjusted positions following the initial drop in yields after the US-Iran deal, while rising long-term yields in Japan, driven by concerns over increased spending, also pushed German yields higher. European bond yields remain well below the multi-year peaks seen in May, as falling crude prices, softer-than-expected inflation, and dovish comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde led markets to scale back bets on a third ECB rate hike this year. Money markets still view a second hike as more likely than not. June’s inflation data undershot expectations, with headline inflation easing to 2.8% and core inflation slowing to 2.4%. At the ECB’s Sintra Forum, Lagarde noted that risks to euro-area inflation and growth had become more balanced. Meanwhile, a weaker-than-expected US jobs report further dampened expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike.

Bund Yields Post First Weekly Rise in a Month

The Bank of Tanzania raised its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 6.25% on July 3rd, 2026, marking its first hike since April 2024. Policymakers said the decision was intended to ensure inflation remains within the 3%–5% target range while sustaining economic growth. The annual inflation rate inched up to 4.2% in May from 4% in April, marking the highest level since April 2023, on the back of higher fuel and fertilizer costs amid the Middle East crisis. Looking ahead, the central bank expects inflationary pressures to remain contained, supported by a strong harvest that should keep food prices stable and robust export earnings that are expected to cushion exchange rate pass-through to import prices. Meanwhile, the MPC said economic growth remained resilient despite external headwinds, including the ongoing Middle East conflict, with GDP projected to expand by around 6% in the first half of 2026.

Tanzania Lifts Key Policy Rate to 6.25%

Switzerland's 10-year bond yield rose to 0.33% at the start of July as easing geopolitical tensions improved risk appetite and reduced demand for safe-haven assets despite lingering uncertainty over a lasting agreement. Meanwhile, Swiss inflation slowed in June for the first time in eight months to 0.5%, remaining within the Swiss National Bank's 0-2% target range. The SNB kept interest rates at 0%, preferring to rely on currency interventions to curb excessive franc appreciation and pushing inflation too low through cheaper imports. The International Monetary Fund urged the SNB to remain ready to raise rates or cut them into negative territory if a stagflation scenario occurs, while the central bank reiterated its willingness to intervene in currency markets. Policymakers expect inflation to pick up modestly later this year but remain stable over the medium term, as energy supply disruptions ease, while the government trimmed its own 2026 domestic growth forecast to 0.9%.

Swiss 10-Year Bond Yield Edges Up

The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk freight index, which monitors rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, advanced for the fourth session on Friday, rising about 2.5% to its highest since June 19 at 2,717 points, mainly supported by the larger vessel segment. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes including iron ore and coal, was up for a fourth day, climbing 4.6% to 4,100 points, fueled by stronger iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil, while Chinese curbs on some Fortescue deliveries limited steel mill buying. At the same time, the panamax index, which tracks vessels carrying around 60,000 to 70,000 tons of coal or grain, increased by 0.4% to 2,203 points. On the other hand, the supramax index edged down by 0.1% to 1,673 points. The benchmark index recorded a weekly gain of 7.6%.

Baltic Dry Index Up for 4th Day

The S&P/TSX Composite Index gained nearly 1% to trade above the 35,000 mark on Friday, approaching record highs on gains from gold miners. Gold advanced after US nonfarm payrolls rose nearly half what was expected in June, boosting hopes for a more dovish Fed. Agnico Eagle, WPM, and Barrick gained about 2%. Meanwhile, BHP Group agreed to transfer its San Manuel property in Arizona to Faraday Copper (+1.5%) in exchange for a 30% stake in the Canadian miner, which is seeking to develop a copper hub around its adjacent Copper Creek project. Oil prices remained near pre-conflict levels amid optimism over US-Iran peace efforts, easing concerns about energy-driven inflation and supporting financial stocks, with Scotiabank and BMO both rising nearly 1%. Separately, AtkinsRéalis gained 1% after saying Turkey could begin formal talks on a CANDU nuclear power plant following an early reactor review later this summer.

TSX Nears Record High on Mining Rally

Silver rose above $62 per ounce on Friday, reaching its highest level since June 23 and heading for a nearly 6% weekly gain, as weaker-than-expected US jobs data dampened expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hike. US nonfarm payrolls grew by only 57,000 in June, the smallest increase in four months and well below the 110,000 forecast, leading traders to cut their bets on a September hike. The CME FedWatch tool showed the probability of a rate increase falling to 50%, down from 66% before the data. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver. The US dollar also weakened, heading for its biggest weekly drop since April, which further boosted precious metals. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh also said this week that inflation expectations are moderating while reaffirming the central bank’s commitment to maintaining price stability.

Silver Surges on Weak US Jobs Data

Gold climbed to $4,170 per ounce on Friday, touching its highest level since June 23 and set for a 2% weekly gain after four consecutive weeks of declines, as weak US jobs data reduced expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hike. US nonfarm payrolls increased by just 57,000 in June, the smallest rise in four months and far below the 110,000 forecast, prompting traders to lower their bets on a September rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a hike dropped to 50%, down from 66% before the report. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Additionally, the US dollar was on track for its largest weekly decline since April, further supporting gold prices. Central banks also contributed to demand, adding a net 41 metric tons of gold to reserves in May, per World Gold Council data. In physical markets, Indian demand softened as prices rose, while Chinese buying interest saw a slight improvement.

Gold Set for First Weekly Rise in Five

CROBEX increased to 4482.00 Index Points, the highest since February 2008. Over the past 4 weeks, Zagreb Stock Exchange Stock Index gained 3.95%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 25.61%.

Stocks in Croatia Hit 18-year High

The Ibovespa edged up to trade near the 173,000 mark on Friday as investors assessed May industrial production and June services PMI data. Services activity data showed an expansion at a slightly faster pace in June as demand improved, supporting shares linked to domestic tertiary sector activity. Rede D'Or gained nearly 1%, Raia Drogasil advanced 1.5%, while Bradesco and Banco do Brasil added about 0.5%. Also, oil prices remained near pre-conflict lows amid optimism over US-Iran peace efforts, easing concerns about energy-driven inflation and supporting financial stocks and the broader index. Meanwhile, industrial production rose just 0.2% year-on-year in May, well below forecasts of a 1.3% increase, Ambev fell nearly 1%.  Investors also monitored the US decision to launch a public consultation on Brazilian trade policies and practices while awaiting trade balance data.

Brazil Stocks Rise on Strong Services Activity

The S&P Global Composite PMI for Brazil rose to 50.7 in June 2026 from 49.5 in May, pointing to a mild recovery in private sector activity. The upturn was driven by services, while manufacturing recorded a softer decline in output. Aggregate new orders increased, supported by stronger demand for services, while manufacturing contraction in order books moderated. Employment declined for the first time in five months as services firms reduced staffing despite hiring in manufacturing. Overall price pressures eased to a three-month low, but business optimism softened.

Brazil Private Sector Rebounds in June

Brazil's S&P Global Services PMI rose to 51.3 in June 2026 from 50.4 in May, signaling a slightly faster pace of expansion in the services sector and extending the current growth streak to eight months. The survey showed that new business continued to increase only modestly, with transport, information and communication, and consumer services posting growth, while finance and insurance and real estate and business services contracted. The improvement in demand came despite elevated price pressures, as output charge inflation accelerated and remained among the strongest in 16 months. Input costs also rose at the fastest pace since February 2025, driven by higher prices for commodities, fuel, transportation, and food. Meanwhile, employment declined, ending a four-month period of job creation, as firms cited layoffs and restructuring efforts. Confidence weakened to an 11-month low amid concerns over the upcoming presidential election, economic instability, and geopolitical tensions.

Brazil Services PMI Extends Growth Streak

Mexico's Consumer Confidence Index rose 0.4 points to 43.8 in June 2026 from May, as households became slightly more optimistic about current economic conditions. Four of the five components of the index improved during the month. The largest increases were recorded in perceptions of current household finances, which rose 1.2 points to 51.2, and willingness to purchase durable goods, up 1.1 points to 30.0. Assessments of the current national economic situation increased 0.7 points to 37.5, while expectations for the country's economic outlook over the next 12 months edged up 0.3 points to 43.7. In contrast, expectations for household finances over the next year declined 1.0 point to 56.4. Compared with June 2025, consumer confidence was 1.8 points lower.

Mexico Consumer Confidence Improves in June

Futures tracking the S&P/TSX Composite Index edged higher on Friday, supported by firmer gold prices after weaker-than-expected US jobs data tempered expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. Gold gained after data showed US nonfarm payrolls rose by 57,000 in June, well below forecasts of 110,000, boosting hopes for a more dovish Fed and supporting mining shares. Meanwhile, BHP Group agreed to transfer its San Manuel property in Arizona to Faraday Copper in exchange for a 30% stake in the Canadian miner, as Faraday seeks to develop a copper hub around its adjacent Copper Creek project. Oil prices remained near pre-war lows amid optimism over US-Iran peace efforts, easing concerns about energy-driven inflation and supporting financial stocks. Separately, AtkinsRéalis said Turkey could begin formal talks on a CANDU nuclear plant after completing an early reactor review later this summer.

TSX Futures Gain as Gold Prices Climb

Brazil's industrial production fell 0.2% in May 2026 from the previous month, missing expectations of a 0.3% growth and marking its first monthly decline of the year after a 0.7% increase in April. The downturn was broad-based, with three of the four major industrial categories and 8 of the 25 industries surveyed posting declines. The largest negative contributions came from coke, refined petroleum products and biofuels (-6.1%) and extractive industries (-2.6%). Additional declines were recorded in food products (-1.3%), textiles (-4.0%), printing and recorded media (-8.1%), and computers, electronic and optical products (-2.0%). Among the 16 industries that expanded, the main gains came from pharmaceuticals (13.1%), motor vehicles (4.1%), and chemicals (3.1%), followed by metallurgy (2.3%), apparel (4.7%), other transport equipment (4.7%), electrical machinery (2.6%), and machinery and equipment (1.2%). Compared with May 2025, industrial production edged up 0.2%.

Brazil Industrial Output Falls in May

Spain's consumer confidence held steady at 77.7 in May 2026, unchanged from the previous month after rebounding from a nearly 3.5-year low of 66.9 in March amid uncertainty over geopolitical tensions tied to the Middle East conflict and concerns over its impact. Households' assessment of the current economic situation edged up 0.1 point to 72.1, while expectations for the future remained stable at 83.4.

Spain's Consumer Sentiment Remains Stable

India’s BSE Sensex closed about 0.3% up at 77,764 on Friday, the highest since early May and extending gains for a third straight session. A softer-than-expected US jobs report and declining crude oil prices, eased concerns over near-term interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. The heavyweight tech sector continued to benefit from expectations that a more dovish US central bank could support technology stocks globally. HCL Tech (5.8%) led gains among stocks, with Tech Mahindra (1.8%), TCS (1.2%) and Infosys (0.6%) also advancing. Bajaj Finance rose 1.4% as it reported a strong operational performance for the first quarter of FY27, with robust growth in assets under management (AUM), loan disbursements and customer acquisition,

Sensex Finishes at Near 2-Month High

The SENSEX Index went up by 262 points or 0.34 percent on Friday to close at 77764 points. The rise was led by HCL Tech (5.73%), Indusind Bank (3.26%) and Eternal Limited (1.97%). On the downside, the weakerst performers were Axis Bank (-1.51%), Mahindra & Mahindra (-1.19%) and Tech Mahindra (-1.00%).

The SENSEX Index Closes 0.34% Higher

Pakistan recorded a trade deficit of PKR 1,263.2 billion in June 2026, widening from PKR 815.4 billion a year earlier and deteriorating sharply from PKR 781.2 billion in the previous month. Imports rose 24.4% year-on-year to PKR 1,886.3 billion, driven largely by a 57.6% increase in crude petroleum purchases to PKR 195.5 billion, highlighting the country's continued reliance on imported energy. Meanwhile, exports fell 11.1% to PKR 623.1 billion, weighed down by a 37.9% decline in rice shipments and slower growth in other key exports, including knitwear, bed wear, and cotton cloth. Over the July 2025–June 2026 fiscal year, imports increased 8.5% while exports declined 5.6%, widening the trade deficit 22.3% to PKR 11,098.3 billion.

Pakistan Trade Deficit Widens Sharply in June

Brent crude oil prices fluctuated around $72 a barrel in thin Friday trading, hovering near levels last seen before the Middle East conflict erupted in late February as commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continued to recover amid progress in US-Iran talks. Specifically, crude exports from Saudi Arabia climbed back to 90% of their pre war baseline, matching a strong supply rebound in the United Arab Emirates. Iraq is likewise showing tentative signs of shipping recovery, while a sizable inventory of Iranian oil continues to accumulate at sea. Also, President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran were progressing well after mediators from Qatar and Pakistan held separate meetings with US and Iranian officials in Doha on Wednesday.

Brent Hovers Near Pre-War Levels

Lumber prices rebounded to around $623 per thousand board feet, as supply tightened faster than demand. US sawmill output declined for a second consecutive quarter, while production capacity fell 6% from a year earlier. Although lumber prices rose 6.1% from the previous quarter as producers attempted to capitalize, they remained 3.8% below year-earlier levels amid subdued buyer activity. At the same time, British Columbia, Canada's largest exporting province, seeks to expand shipments to China as higher US import costs for Canadian softwood lumber reshaped trade flows. Meanwhile, the US maintained antidumping and countervailing duty orders on certain wood products and renewed trade measures on Chinese wood-related imports effective June 24, citing the need to “quarantine forest pests”. On the demand side, Canadian lumber exports to Japan fell 27%, while elevated borrowing costs, higher labor costs, and a weaker housing market continued to curb demand for construction lumber.

Lumber Rebounds Above $620

House prices in Norway increased 0.4% month-on-month in June 2026, following a 0.1% gain in the previous month. Residential sales totaled 11,757 units, 2% fewer than in the same month last year, while 12,028 homes were listed for sale, up 4% from June 2025. The average time to sell a home was 40 days in June, down from 42 days in May, with homes selling fastest in Bergen and Stavanger at 13 and 16 days, respectively. Meanwhile, Fredrikstad/Sarpsborg recorded the longest selling time at 93 days. Regionally, Porsgrunn/Skien posted the strongest monthly house price growth at 2.6%, followed by Bodø and Fauske with a 1.8% increase. In contrast, Fredrikstad/Sarpsborg recorded the weakest performance, with prices falling 0.9%. On a yearly basis, house prices rose 3.9% in June, the highest increase since January. For the January–June period, prices were 5.5% higher than in the corresponding period a year earlier.

Norway House Price Up 0.4% MoM in June

The S&P Global UK Composite PMI fell to 49.3 in June of 2026 from 49.7 in May, revised from the flash estimate of 49.4 for a second month of contraction following 11 months of expansion in the British private sector activity. It contrasted with the initial expectations of an expansion at 50.6. Activity gauges contracted for services (48.8 vs 49.3 in May), outweighing the expansion for that of manufacturing (52.5 vs 53.9). Total private sector sales fell the most since April 2025 as a decline in services offset growth in manufacturing, even though the latter slowed. Likewise, backlogs of work increased sharply. Still, input price inflation eased for a second month as a modest de-escalation in the Middle East eased the upward pressure on energy prices, although cost growth remained above average. Output charge inflation also softened. Employment continued to fall at a fast rate, with workers still citing higher National Insurance contributions. Looking ahead, confidence improved.

UK Private Sector Activity Falls Contracts Further

Germany’s new car registrations climbed 15.7% year-over-year to 296,378 units in June 2026. Private registrations surged 28.6%, accounting for 36.6% of the total, while commercial registrations rose 9.4%, making up 63.4%. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) saw the strongest growth, with 84,057 units registered, a 78.2% increase and capturing a 28.4% market share. In contrast, gasoline-powered car registrations fell 16.8%, holding a 20.5% share, and diesel registrations declined 5.1%, with an 11.4% share. In the first half of 2026, total new car registrations reached 1.48 million, up 5.8% from the same period in 2025. BEVs led with a 48.0% jump, while gasoline and diesel cars saw declines of 18.2% and 8.6%, respectively.

Germany’s New Car Registrations Surge 15.7% in June

The S&P Global UK Services PMI was revised slightly higher to 48.8 in June 2026 from a preliminary estimate of 48.7, but remained below May's reading of 49.3. The data showed the services sector contracted for a second consecutive month, with the pace of decline accelerating to its steepest since January 2023. Total new work received by service sector companies fell for the fourth consecutive month and the rate of contraction accelerated to its fastest since November 2022. Survey respondents attributed weaker demand to global inflationary pressures linked to the Middle East conflict and heightened domestic political uncertainty. Export orders fell further in June, with weak demand from European clients continuing to outweigh robust sales to the United States.

UK Services Downturn Deepens in June

Slovenia recorded a trade deficit of EUR 1,154.1 million in May 2026, widening sharply from a EUR 4.1 million deficit a year earlier, as trade with non-EU countries surged. Imports rose 38.6% year-on-year to EUR 7,520.7 million, driven by a 67.8% jump in purchases from non-EU countries, while imports from EU members increased 8.9%. Exports grew 17.6% to EUR 6,366.6 million, supported by a 28.2% increase in shipments to non-EU markets, compared with 6.3% growth to EU countries. In the first five months of 2026, Slovenia's trade balance swung to a EUR 3,920.9 million deficit from a EUR 2,447.7 million surplus in the same period last year, as exports fell 13.7% while imports increased 7.2%.

Slovenia Trade Deficit Widens in May

The S&P Global Eurozone Composite PMI was revised up to 50.0 in June 2026, from a preliminary 49.5 and above May’s 48.5, marking a stabilization in private sector output after two months of decline. Manufacturing production growth offset a slower but continued drop in services activity. Italy, Spain, and Ireland drove the recovery with sharper expansions in business activity, while Germany and France, though still in contraction, saw their rates of decline ease. New business volumes fell for a fourth month, but the contraction was marginal and the joint-slowest since March. Employment remained virtually unchanged after the steepest drop in five and a half years, and backlogs depleted at a slightly slower pace than in April and May, though still among the fastest of the past year. Input and output costs rose sharply but at a slower rate than recent peaks, while business confidence reached its highest level since the outbreak of war in the Middle East.

Eurozone Private Sector Output Stabilizes in June

France's S&P Global Services PMI rose to 46.8, revised down from the preliminary estimate of 47.4, in June 2026 from 44.3 in May, marking its first increase since February. The latest reading signaled a softer contraction in business activity but remained below the 50.0 threshold. The decline in output and new orders eased to the slowest pace since March as firms continued to cite weak demand, higher prices, and the Middle East conflict as key headwinds, though export demand showed signs of improvement. Employment fell for a fifth consecutive month, but the pace of job cuts slowed. On the pricing front, input cost inflation eased to a three-month low despite continued increases in fuel, energy, and wage costs, while output price inflation moderated. Business confidence also improved slightly after four months of declining sentiment.

France Services Sector Edges Up in June

Germany’s Services PMI was revised sharply higher to 48.6 in June 2026, up from the preliminary estimate of 46.8 and above May’s final reading of 48.1. However, the latest figure still signaled a third consecutive month of contraction in service activity, as weak demand continued to weigh on the sector. New orders declined for a fourth straight month, with the drop more pronounced than in May. Firms cited challenging economic conditions, including tighter financial constraints and low domestic confidence, as key factors. A marked decline in foreign demand also contributed to the overall reduction in new business. Outstanding business continued to shrink, employment levels fell for a sixth month, and backlogs were depleted at the fastest rate since August 2025. On prices, both input and output cost inflation slowed from recent highs, partly due to lower fuel costs. Finally, business confidence weakened further in June.

German Service Sector Contracts for a Third Month

The annual inflation rate in Armenia rose to 5.1% in June 2026 from a 4.2% increase in the previous month. Costs rose for food and non-alcoholic beverages (8.6% vs. 6.4% in May), housing and utilities (1.2% vs. 1.1%), clothing and footwear (3.0% vs. 1.8%), furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance (1.8% vs. 0.4%), and restaurants and hotels (4.1% vs. 3.8%). Meanwhile, inflation eased for transport (1.6% vs. 3.2%), health (3.5% vs. 3.7%), miscellaneous goods and services (2.4% vs 2.9%), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (7.5% vs. 7.7%), communication (1.1.% vs. 1.2%), and recreation and culture (0.9% vs 1.6%), while it held steady for education at 8.3%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.5% in June, following a 0.8% decline in May and marking the second consecutive monthly contraction after eight months of price growth.

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