The Swiss franc traded around 0.81 per USD, near its lowest since October 9, as the US dollar held firm amid diminishing expectations of additional monetary easing by the Federal Reserve this year. Domestically, Swiss inflation slowed to 0.1% in October from 0.2% in September, while consumer prices fell 0.3% month-over-month, defying forecasts of a smaller 0.1% decline. The softer data challenges the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) projection that inflation will pick up later this year and into 2026, with the central bank expecting an average rate of 0.4% this quarter. Weak price pressures have renewed speculation of a rate cut, possibly taking policy back below zero as early as next month. However, SNB policymakers remain cautious, wary of destabilizing the financial system, while the franc’s safe-haven strength continues to weigh on inflation by reducing import costs.

Swiss Franc at Over 3-Week Low

The South Korean won hovered around 1,427 per dollar on Monday, edging higher from losses in the previous session as October trade data signaled resilience in exports. South Korea’s trade surplus in October widened sharply to USD 6.06 billion, surpassing market expectations, supported by resilient exports of semiconductors, autos, and shipbuilding products, and weaker-than-expected imports due to fewer working days during the Chuseok holiday. Meanwhile, South Korea’s manufacturing PMI slipped back into contraction in October, reflecting subdued domestic demand, lingering tariff pressures, and higher import costs.

South Korean Won Firms as Trade Surplus Widens

The Indonesian rupiah weakened to around 16,650 per dollar on Monday after holding relatively steady last week. The decline came amid a stronger US dollar, which hovered near a three-month high after the Trump–Xi summit last week aimed at stabilizing bilateral relations. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that another rate cut in December was not assured amid the ongoing US government shutdown. Domestically, Bank Indonesia signaled room for further easing, citing expectations that inflation would remain moderate through 2026 despite October’s temporary rise to a 1-1/2-year high of 2.86%, which stayed within BI’s 1.5%–3.5% target range. The central bank had paused its aggressive rate-cut cycle in October after lowering its benchmark rate by 150 basis points since September 2024. Meanwhile, strong September trade data cushioned the retreat in local currency, with exports rising 11.4% year-on-year and imports growing at a slower 7.17%.

Rupiah Slips as Dollar Strengthens

The offshore yuan hovered around 7.12 per dollar on Monday, following a two-session decline, as investors weighed disappointing factory activity data against US-China trade developments. A private survey showed that China’s manufacturing PMI slowed more than expected in October, after official data last week indicated that manufacturing activity had contracted for the longest stretch in over nine years. The weak figures could prompt fresh calls for stronger policy support, even as China reached a trade truce with the US. Over the weekend, the White House announced that China would halt new export controls on rare earths and drop investigations into US semiconductor firms as part of a deal under which Washington will pause certain tariffs and cancel a planned 100% levy on Chinese exports. The announcement followed last week’s Trump–Xi summit, which aimed to stabilize bilateral relations.

Offshore Yuan Stabilizes

The Australian dollar edged higher to around $0.654 on Monday, snapping a three-session losing streak as investors awaited the Reserve Bank of Australia’s forthcoming monetary policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged following three cuts earlier this year, with stronger-than-anticipated inflation data tempering expectations of further monetary easing. Annual headline inflation jumped to 3.2% in Q3 from 2.1% in the previous quarter, while the trimmed mean measure increased to 3% from 2.7%. Meanwhile, Australia’s Monthly Inflation Gauge, compiled by the Melbourne Institute, rose 0.3% month-on-month in October 2025, slightly down from the 0.4% gain in September. Swaps indicate less than a 7% probability of a rate reduction, and market expectations for additional cuts in December and February have also been scaled back.

Aussie Dollar Snaps 3-Day Decline

The Japanese yen held around 154 per dollar in holiday-thinned trade on Monday, hovering at its weakest levels in nine months as the Bank of Japan adopted a cautious approach to interest rate hikes at a time the US Federal Reserve has turned more hawkish. Last week, the BOJ kept rates unchanged, with Governor Kazuo Ueda warning that global trade policies could dampen growth and corporate profits. Although Ueda left open the possibility of a December rate hike, his measured tone disappointed markets. Meanwhile, new Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama clarified that she no longer supports her March view that the yen’s fair value is around 120–130 per dollar, noting her current responsibility for currency policy. Investors now look ahead to key data releases this week including wage and household spending figures.

Yen Holds Decline on Thin Holiday Trading

The dollar index held around 99.8 on Monday, hovering at three-month highs as investors weighed trade developments and awaited key economic data. Over the weekend, the White House announced that China would suspend additional export controls on rare earths and end investigations into US semiconductor firms, in exchange for the US pausing certain tariffs and scrapping a planned 100% levy on Chinese exports. The move followed last week’s landmark summit between Presidents Trump and Xi aimed at stabilizing relations. Meanwhile, the prolonged US government shutdown continued to delay the release of major economic reports, including the monthly jobs data. Still, investors will get insights from private indicators this week such as ADP employment, ISM PMIs, and Michigan sentiment. Last week, the Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25 bps rate cut, though Chair Powell cautioned that another cut in December is not guaranteed.

Dollar Holds at 3-Month High

The Brazilian real weakened past 5.39 per US dollar, as a firm US dollar offset otherwise supportive domestic data. The dollar firmed after the Fed’s 25bp cut was accompanied by Chair Powell’s warning that a further reduction in December is far from certain, keeping global funding conditions relatively tight. Domestically, unemployment remained low at 5.6% in the September moving quarter, which supports consumption and tax receipts, adding to hawkish arguments for the Brazilian central bank. However, those domestic positives have been offset by the limited nature of the US–China truce, which markets view as temporary, and by lingering fiscal and policy uncertainty, including failed congressional votes on revenue measures and earlier shifts to IOF rules that have kept some nonresident investors cautious.

Brazilian Real Pressured by USD Strength

The euro eased toward $1.15, its weakest level since late July, as investors assessed remarks from ECB officials and their implications for the central bank’s policy outlook. ECB policymaker François Villeroy de Galhau said the bank’s monetary stance is well positioned but could adjust if risks intensify. His comments followed the ECB’s decision to hold interest rates steady for a third straight meeting, with President Lagarde noting that policy is “in a good place” and signaling limited appetite for further easing after eight quarter-point cuts through June. Other policymakers advocated patience on interest rates, signaling confidence in the current policy stance. Earlier data showed Eurozone inflation cooled to just above the ECB’s 2% target, while third-quarter GDP growth exceeded expectations and October business surveys indicated improving sentiment. Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthened as traders scaled back bets on additional Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Euro Slips to 3-Month Low

The dollar index rose for a third straight session on Friday, approaching 99.8, its highest level since early August, and is on track to finish October up about 1.8%, supported by a more hawkish tone from the Fed. The Fed delivered a widely expected 25bps rate cut but Chair Powell emphasized that a December rate cut is not a foregone conclusion. Market-implied odds of another cut in December dropped sharply to around 63%, from about 90% before the meeting. Meanwhile, the Trump–Xi meeting concluded with the US agreeing to lower tariffs on Chinese goods, while China pledged to curb fentanyl exports, increase US soybean purchases, and pause rare earth export restrictions. Elsewhere, the ongoing US government shutdown showed no signs of resolution, delaying the release of key economic data. The dollar strengthened roughly 4% against the yen following the election of Prime Minister Takaichi. It also gained about 2% against the pound and 1.4% against the euro.

Dollar Set to Close October on a Strong Note

EURUSD decreased to 1.15, the lowest since August 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Euro US Dollar lost 1.56%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 6.56%.

Euro Hits 12-week Low

The Canadian dollar slipped past C$1.40 per US dollar after a surprisingly weak GDP report pushed markets to price a higher probability of another Bank of Canada rate cut while a firmer US dollar compounded the pressure. Canadian GDP is expected to rise 0.1% monthly in September, while August was revised to a 0.3% monthly contraction, the largest monthly drop since December 2022. That downgrade reflects a stronger response to trade frictions with the United States and the drag from higher BoC policy rates. Markets had largely treated the BoC’s recent cut as priced in and refocused on the Bank’s data dependent guidance as new weakness accumulated, even though inflation remains elevated with headline CPI near 2.4% y/y and the Bank’s trimmed measure close to 3.1%. Meanwhile the US dollar found support after the Fed’s widely anticipated 25bp cut as Chair Powell warned a further move in December is not guaranteed.

Canadian Dollar Loses Ground After GDP Data

The euro traded just below $1.16 at the end of a week filled with economic data releases, central bank meetings, and easing US–China trade tensions. Eurozone inflation eased to 2.1% in October 2025, down from 2.2% in September and moving closer to the ECB’s 2% target. Among major economies, Germany, France, and Italy saw moderating price pressures, while Spain recorded a slight uptick in CPI. GDP grew 0.2% in Q3, slightly above expectations, driven by robust growth in Spain and France, whereas Germany and Italy remained largely flat. On the policy front, the ECB kept interest rates unchanged for a third consecutive meeting, noting that the inflation outlook remains broadly stable. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25bps in October, as expected, but Chair Powell signaled caution on further easing, stressing that a December rate cut is not guaranteed.

Euro Steady Near $1.16

The offshore yuan held its decline around 7.11 per dollar on Friday as investors weighed disappointing PMI data and the outcomes from the recent Trump-Xi meeting. China’s manufacturing PMI fell to a six-month low of 49 in October 2025, signaling continued weakness in the industrial sector and fueling expectations of further stimulus to support domestic demand. Meanwhile, the services PMI remained near a ten-month low of 50, reflecting subdued economic momentum amid ongoing property market stress and global trade headwinds. On the trade front, the US and China agreed to extend their temporary trade truce for another year, with the US pausing the “50% rule” on export controls and China suspending rare earth export restrictions. However, China’s readout offered few specifics, suggesting that both sides still need to refine and finalize the agreements, leaving some issues unresolved. For the month, the yuan is still on track for a gain.

Offshore Yuan Holds Decline

The South Korean won traded around 1,430 per dollar, remaining near the six-month low touched last week, as soft economic data strengthened the case for further easing by the central bank. Retail sales fell for the second straight month in September, while industrial output missed forecasts, reinforcing the Bank of Korea’s dovish stance after it signaled further policy easing last week while keeping rates unchanged amid mounting concerns over a property slump and weak exports. The currency also faced pressure from a stronger US dollar, driven by Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish remarks that another rate cut in December is not assured. However, losses were partly offset after Washington and Seoul finalized a trade deal that eased uncertainty for exporters in autos, chips, and shipbuilding, improving sentiment toward South Korea’s growth outlook. The won remained on track for a second straight monthly decline.

South Korean Won Hovers Near 6-Month Low

The Japanese yen hovered near nine-month lows around 154 per dollar on Friday and was on track for a sharp 4% monthly decline, pressured by the election of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who favors expansionary fiscal measures and loose monetary policy. The Bank of Japan also kept rates unchanged this month, with Governor Kazuo Ueda cautioning that global trade policies could slow growth and hurt corporate profits. Meanwhile, new Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama clarified that she no longer stands by her March comments suggesting the yen’s fair value is around 120–130 per dollar, citing her current role overseeing currency policy. Recent data also showed Tokyo’s core inflation rose more than expected in October, complicating the domestic policy outlook. Externally, the yen weakened further as a stronger dollar gained support from reduced expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Yen Set for Steep Monthly Drop

The dollar index held near three-month highs around 99.5 on Friday and was poised to rise nearly 2% for the month as investors dialed back expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts. The Fed delivered a widely anticipated quarter-point reduction on Wednesday, but Chair Jerome Powell stressed that another move in December is not guaranteed. Market-implied odds of a December cut fell sharply to about 75% from over 90% before the meeting. Meanwhile, the Trump-Xi meeting ended with the US agreeing to lower tariffs on Chinese goods, while Beijing pledged to curb fentanyl exports, boost US soybean purchases, and pause rare earth export controls. The dollar posted its biggest monthly gains against the yen in October following the election of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who favors expansionary fiscal measures and continued loose monetary policy.

Dollar Heads for Monthly Gain

The Brazilian real weakened past 5.37 per US dollar, amid a strong US dollar offsetting trade developments. Externally, a firmer US dollar driven by lingering expectations that the Federal Reserve may hold rates higher for longer is pressuring the real, while the recent US–China trade truce has offered limited relief. Despite tariff reductions and the suspension of rare-earth export controls, the agreement is largely seen as temporary and maintaining the status quo, leaving uncertainty over global trade flows and Brazil’s export outlook. Domestically, although the Central Bank of Brazil has maintained a hawkish stance with high policy rates, inflationary pressures remain contained, limiting further yield support for the currency. Additionally, external risks such as ongoing trade and tariff frictions, combined with elevated fiscal uncertainty and a reliance on commodity exports, are sustaining a cautious environment.

Brazilian Real Losses Ground

The Canadian dollar weakened toward C$1.4 per US dollar, as a firm US dollar driven by growing bets that the Federal Reserve will keep policy rates higher for longer overwhelmed any short-lived hawkish signals from the Bank of Canada. Markets largely treated the BoC’s recent cut as priced in and shifted instead to its data dependent guidance, which narrowed the odds of further accommodation and pushed domestic yields up but not enough to compensate for the dollar’s strength. At home a weak macro backdrop compounds the pressure with Q2 GDP contracting about 1.6% and the labour market softening despite a one off 60,000 payroll gain that left unemployment near 7.1%, while inflation remains elevated with headline CPI around 2.4% year on year and the Bank’s trimmed measure near 3.1%. Softer commodity signals and lingering US Canada trade and tariff frictions together with Ottawa’s outreach to Asia to diversify ties keep external risks elevated and limit the loonie’s external support.

Canadian Dollar Pressured by USD Strength

The dollar index strengthened for a second consecutive session to 99.5 on Thursday, after comments from Fed Chair Powell lowered expectations for further interest rate cuts. The Fed delivered a 25bps reduction as expected on Wednesday, but Powell emphasized that a December rate cut is not a foregone conclusion. Market-implied odds of another cut in December fell sharply to around 68% from about 90% prior to the meeting. Investors had largely anticipated an additional 25bps cut in December, in line with the Fed’s September projections. Meanwhile, the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi concluded with the US lowering overall tariffs on Chinese imports by 10% to 47%, while Beijing pledged to curb fentanyl exports and increase purchases of US soybeans. These outcomes were broadly anticipated by markets. The greenback gained the most against the yen after the BoJ left interest rates unchanged and speculation grew that the central bank may refrain from additional moves this year.

Dollar Continues to Gain

The Mexican peso slipped past 18.55 per US dollar to near seven week lows as markets priced a more dovish path for Banxico at the same time the US dollar found fresh momentum. Mexico’s GDP contracted 0.3% quarter on quarter in Q3, only the second quarterly contraction since early 2021, after industry output fell roughly 1.5% amid US auto tariffs, services activity stalled and annual growth eased to about 0.2%. The labour market has softened, with the unemployment rate rising to 3.0% in September, its highest since August 2024, and the bulk of the increase concentrated in prime working ages; nearly half of the newly unemployed have been out of work for a month or less, a profile consistent with weakening hiring. At the same time Chair Powell’s comments that a December Fed cut is not guaranteed pushed market odds for another US easing materially lower and lifted the dollar and further pressures the peso.

Mexican Peso Weakens to 7-Week Low

The Euro continued its decline to $1.15, the lowest level since July, pressured by broad dollar strength as investors monitor the monetary policy direction from both the ECB and the Fed. The ECB left interest rates unchanged for a third consecutive meeting as expected and noted that the inflation outlook remains broadly stable, the economy continues to grow and the outlook remains uncertain. As in previous months, policymakers reiterated their commitment to a “data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach” to monetary policy. Markets largely expect no further ECB moves this year. On the data front, the Eurozone economy expanded 0.2% in Q3, surpassing expectations of 0.1%, while unemployment remained near record lows. Inflation trends were mixed, with slowing prices in Germany but rising inflation in Spain. Meanwhile, the Fed cut rates by 25bps in October as expected, but Chair Powell sounded cautious on further easing, emphasizing that a December rate cut is not a foregone conclusion.

Euro Hits Three-Month Low

The South African rand weakened to around 17.3 per USD, the lowest level since October 22, as the dollar gained ground following Fed's Powell cautious tone. While policymakers delivered a widely-expected rate cut, Powell noted that a December cut is not guaranteed, prompting investors to trim bets on a December rate cut. Traders also weighed the trade deal made by US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, given China’s role as a key partner for South Africa. On the domestic data front, PPI inflation mirrored the consumer inflation trend, edging slightly higher in September. Meanwhile, the South African Reserve Bank is likely to maintain its policy rate at 7% at its November 20 meeting to guide inflation toward its new 3% goal.

South African Rand Weakens to Over 1-Week Low

DXY increased to 99.56, the highest since August 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Dollar Index gained 1.9%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 4.16%.

Dollar Index Hits 12-week High

The euro edged up to $1.162 as investors digested a mix of economic data and central bank developments. GDP figures showed that Germany and Italy stalled in Q3, while France and the Netherlands expanded at a faster pace. On the inflation front, regional German CPI data pointed to a slight slowdown in price pressures, although inflation accelerated in North Rhine-Westphalia, the country’s most populous state. Meanwhile, Spain’s CPI unexpectedly picked up. Looking at monetary policy, the ECB is expected to hold interest rates steady later today, following the Federal Reserve’s second consecutive rate cut, although Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated further cuts this year are not guaranteed.

Euro Holds Steady Amid Mixed European Data and Central Bank Moves

The Indian rupee weakened to around 88.6 per USD on Thursday, hitting its lowest level in two weeks, as the US dollar strengthened after Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the likelihood of additional rate cut. The Fed’s relatively hawkish tone further pressured the rupee, already under strain from strong importer demand and NDF-related expiries. The Reserve Bank of India was seen providing support through state-run banks and likely intervening in the offshore market to curb sharp losses. On the policy front, most market participants still expect a December rate cut, with some forecasting further easing in February to bring the repo rate to 5% after recent data showed inflation fell to an eight-year low. Elsewhere, markets weighed the outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting, where the two sides agreed to extend their trade truce for another year.

Indian Rupee Hits Two-Week Low

The offshore yuan fell to around 7.10 per dollar on Thursday, retreating from a near one-year high reached in the earlier session as investors were left underwhelmed by the Trump-Xi meeting. In their first encounter since Trump’s return to office, the two leaders agreed to extend their temporary trade truce for another year, with the US pausing the "50% rule" on export controls and China suspending rare earth export restrictions. Other key highlights of the meeting included the joint commitment of the US and China to address issues such as fentanyl control and the expansion of agricultural trade, along with the constructive resolution of matters related to TikTok. However, while China’s readout adopted an optimistic tone, it offered limited specifics, indicating that both sides must further refine and finalize the agreements, with certain issues still outstanding. Domestically, investors await upcoming PMI data, with official figures due this week and private surveys next.

Offshore Yuan Retreats After Trump-Xi Meeting

The Japanese yen depreciated past 153 per dollar on Thursday, hitting nine-month lows after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the economy is recovering moderately but cautioned that global trade policies could slow growth and weigh on corporate profits. His remarks followed the central bank’s decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.5%, as expected. The move passed by a 7-2 vote, with board members Naoki Tamura and Hajime Takata again advocating a hike to 0.75%, repeating their stance from September. The BOJ also reiterated it would proceed with policy normalization once its economic projections are met. However, newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s support for accommodative policy complicates the path toward further tightening. The yen also weakened against a stronger dollar after the US Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected quarter-point rate cut, though Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that another move in December was far from a “foregone conclusion.”

Yen Weakens on Ueda Remarks

The Japanese Yen touched 153.28 against the USD, the lowest since February 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, US Dollar Japanese Yen gained 4.1%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 0.76%.

Japanese Yen Hits 37-week Low

The New Zealand dollar climbed back near a three week-high at around $0.577 on Thursday, after slipping 0.3% overnight as the US dollar strengthened on hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. While the Fed delivered a widely expected 25bps rate cut on Wednesday, Powell noted that another cut in December “is not a foregone conclusion,” dampening expectations of an extended easing cycle. Attention has now shifted to the highly anticipated meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi in South Korea later today, where investors are hoping for meaningful progress toward a trade deal. Still, upside for the kiwi remains limited by expectations of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, with traders pricing in an almost certain 25-bps rate cut in November.

New Zealand Dollar Rebounds

The offshore yuan traded around 7.09 per dollar on Thursday, holding near a one-year high as market sentiment remained upbeat on the back of the meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. The encounter marked the first between the two leaders since Trump’s return to office in January, with the pair exchanging handshakes on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in South Korea. Both sides are expected to finalize details of a framework agreement initially negotiated over the weekend in Malaysia, which includes a rollback of select tariffs, fees, and export restrictions. The potential deal has fueled optimism over an easing of trade tensions between Washington and Beijing following months of friction that rattled global markets. Meanwhile, in China, investors are awaiting upcoming PMI releases, with official data due later this week and private surveys scheduled for next week.

Yuan Holds Near 1-Year High on Trump-Xi Meeting

The South Korean won appreciated to around 1,421 per dollar on Thursday, its highest level in two weeks, supported by growing market optimism following the finalization of the Seoul–Washington tariff deal. According to Kim Yong-beom, the presidential chief of staff for policy, the investment package will include $200 billion in cash installments and $150 billion for shipbuilding industry cooperation, with an annual cap of $20 billion. Under the finalized terms, Washington will maintain its reciprocal duties but lower sectoral tariffs on Korean automobiles and auto parts to 15% from 25%, ensuring Korean exporters remain competitive in the US market.  Separately, administrative diplomacy also lifted sentiment, as President Lee Jae Myung prepared to hold summit talks with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Thursday to discuss economic, security, and technological cooperation.

Won Rises on Seoul–Washington Tariff Deal

The Australian dollar strengthened toward $0.660 on Thursday, recouping some losses from the previous session as investors awaited signals from a key meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Hopes of progress in the talks lifted the risk-sensitive Aussie, with the two leaders expected to formalize a trade truce after months of friction. Further support came from a hotter-than-expected domestic inflation print, which tempered expectations for near-term policy easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Markets now assign only about a 5% chance of a rate cut at the November 4 meeting and less than 20% for December, reinforcing speculations that the central bank’s shallow easing cycle may have already ended. Meanwhile, gains were capped by a stronger US dollar after Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the likelihood of another rate cut this year.

Aussie Dollar Firms Ahead of Trump–Xi Meeting

The Japanese yen held around 152.5 per dollar on Thursday, lacking clear direction as investors cautiously awaited the Bank of Japan’s latest policy decision, where it is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Still, policymakers are expected to discuss conditions for resuming rate hikes as tariff-related pressures ease and domestic inflation accelerates. Complicating the outlook further, newly-elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is an advocate of loose monetary policy. On Wednesday, the yen weakened amid a firmer dollar after the US Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected quarter-point rate cut, though Chair Jerome Powell stressed that another move in December was far from a “foregone conclusion,” citing internal divisions and limited federal data due to the shutdown.

Yen Muted Ahead of BOJ Decision

The dollar index held above 99 on Thursday after a sharp rise in the previous session as traders pared expectations for a December rate cut following hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. On Wednesday, the Fed delivered a widely expected quarter-point rate cut and announced plans to end its balance sheet drawdown on December 1. However, Powell stressed that another cut this year was far from a “foregone conclusion,” citing divisions within the central bank and limited federal data amid the government shutdown. Markets now assign less than a 70% chance of another cut before year-end, down from near full pricing before Wednesday’s decision. Meanwhile, investors turned their attention to the closely watched Trump-Xi meeting, where the two leaders are expected to formalize a trade truce after months of tensions.

Dollar Firms Up on Powell Remarks

The Swiss franc weakened to 0.8 per USD in late October, the lowest in two weeks, tracking losses for other G7 currencies after the Federal Reserve pushed back against delivering more rate cuts this year. Despite the broad slip, the franc remained over 12% higher since the start of the year as a global pivot to safety and the growing preference of non-dollar assets supported the Swiss currency, driving it to a record against the euro of 1.083 on October 20th. The franc's strength drove markets to speculate on foreign exchange intervention by the SNB to tame the sharp appreciation during the third quarter, even though the central bank cut its benchmark policy rate to 0%. Minutes from the September 25th SNB meeting indicated that policymakers view the current policy stance as supportive of the economy amid weak price growth and tariff-related uncertainties

Swiss Franc Pulls Back

The British pound extended losses below $1.32, its weakest level since April, pressured by a stronger dollar after the Fed lowered the fed funds rate by 25bps as expected but Chair Powell cautioned that another cut this year is not guaranteed. Sterling has also come under pressure this week as traders modestly increased bets on BoE rate cuts, while expectations grow that November’s budget could deliver a major hit to economic growth. During parliamentary questions on Wednesday, Prime Minister Keir Starmer declined to rule out increases in income tax, national insurance, or value-added tax. Meanwhile, reports suggest that the OBR plans to downgrade the UK’s productivity growth forecast by around 0.3 percentage points, a revision that could create a £20 billion shortfall in public finances. Softer inflation data have also reinforced expectations of monetary easing, with the BRC reporting further declines in food price inflation.

Pound Slides to April Lows

The euro fell below $1.16, its weakest level since mid-October, pressured by a stronger dollar after the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, as expected. However, Chair Powell signaled that the central bank may not cut rates again this year. Meanwhile, the ECB is expected to keep borrowing costs unchanged for a third consecutive meeting on October 30th, with no further policy moves anticipated in 2025. Policymakers remain cautious amid signs of economic resilience and moderating inflation. In the Eurozone, inflation edged up to 2.2% in September from 2.0% over the previous three months, while GDP is estimated to have grown 0.1% in the third quarter, matching the pace seen in the second quarter.

Euro Falls Below $1.16

The dollar index extended gains to above 99.2 on Wednesday, the highest level since the middle of the month, after the Fed delivered a 25bps rate cut as expected, but during the regular press conference Chair Powell said that the December rate cut is not a foregone conclusion. Market-implied odds for such a move slipped to around 88%, down from about 90% earlier in the day. Investors have largely anticipated another 25bps reduction in December, consistent with the Fed’s September projections. In addition, at today's meeting, two officials dissented, with Governor Miran supporting a deeper half-point cut, while Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid argued for holding rates steady. Meanwhile, investors await a meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, expected to finalize a framework that could pause higher US tariffs and China’s rare earth export controls. The greenback strengthened mainly against the pound, the euro, the Swiss franc, and the yen.

Dollar Strengthens After Chair Powell Comments

The dollar index remained around 98.8 on Wednesday after the Fed delivered another 25bps reduction in the fed funds rate as expected, bringing borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022. However, two officials dissented, with Governor Miran supporting a deeper half-point cut, while Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid argued for holding rates steady. The Fed also said it will end the reduction of its securities holdings beginning on December 1st. Meanwhile, investors await a meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, expected to finalize a framework that could pause higher US tariffs and China’s rare earth export controls. The greenback strengthened mainly against the pound, the Swiss franc, and the yen.

Dollar Holds Gains After Fed

The South African rand appreciated to around 17.1 per USD, reaching the highest level since January 2023, mainly supported by rising prices of key precious metals, particularly gold, platinum and palladium. The risk-sensitive rand was buoyed by expectations of a 25 bps reduction in US rates, likely to widen yield differentials and draw investors toward higher-yielding South African assets. Optimism over the outcome of Thursday’s meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping also provided support.

South African Rand Hits Highest since 2023

The Canadian dollar strengthened toward C$1.39 per US dollar as markets digested the Bank of Canada’s 25 basis point cut to 2.25% and, more importantly, its conditional forward guidance that frames the move as an expected endpoint to easing rather than the start of an open-ended easing cycle. Canada’s macro profile explains the caution: Q2 GDP contracted 1.6% and the labour market has softened with unemployment near 7.1% despite a one-off 60k payroll surprise, while headline CPI sits at 2.4% year on year and the Bank’s Trimmed measure runs around 3.1%. Traders therefore treated the rate cut as priced in and focused on the BoC’s message that further easing would be data dependent, a stance that caps expectations for sustained policy-driven weakness in the loonie. At the same time a softer US dollar and steady oil have eased external pressure on the currency, but persistent US trade and tariff uncertainty remains a tangible downside risk for growth and the exchange rate.

Canadian Dollar Strengthens After BoC Decision

The South Korean won appreciated to 1,425 per USD, extending the rebound from the over six-month low of 1,440 touched on October 24th amid the stronger outlook for Korean export industries under signals of new trade deal with the US. US President Trump announced a likely new trade deal with Korea after meeting with President Lee. Such a deal may lower tariffs that stayed in place since July's trade deal, which maintained 25% levies on autos and chips despite softening rates on other goods from 25% to 15%. Improved export prospects would add to traction on the Korean economy after the third quarter GDP was sharply above expectations, reflecting a one-year high growth rate of 1.7%. The data pressed against bets that the Bank of Korea would imminently restart its cutting cycle after its hold at 2.5% this month, limiting the need for the easing bias reflected in the dovish guidance from last decision.

Korean Won Strengthens on Trade Deal Signal

The Philippine peso rose to around PHP 58.7 per dollar on October 29, rebounding from a record low the previous day as market sentiment improved following remarks from Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Eli Remolona. He downplayed speculation that the BSP was targeting specific exchange rate levels, though he did not comment on whether the central bank intervened in the market. His remarks came after the BSP reiterated that the currency is mainly guided by market forces, with interventions focused on smoothing inflation-driven swings rather than curbing daily volatility. Meanwhile, the peso’s rebound comes ahead of the expected seasonal boost from year-end remittances, which could strengthen the currency by more than 2% to around PHP 57.80 per dollar by the end of December. Historically, remittance inflows peak in December, helping the peso strengthen in eight of the past ten years.

Philippine Peso Rebounds on BSP Remarks

The Canadian Dollar touched 1.39 against the USD, the highest since October 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, US Dollar Canadian Dollar gained 0.06%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 0.17%.

Canadian Dollar Hits 4-week High

The offshore yuan traded around 7.09 per dollar on Wednesday, hovering near a one-year high as optimism persisted ahead of the highly anticipated meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Trump indicated that he expects to reduce fentanyl-related tariffs on China ahead of the meeting in South Korea later this week, following reports that the Washington may slash the existing 20% tariffs on fentanyl-linked exports by half in exchange for Beijing tightening controls on chemicals used in fentanyl production. Over the weekend, top officials from both countries reached a preliminary agreement on critical issues, including export controls, fentanyl regulation, and shipping levies. A potential deal could ease tariffs and modify Chinese export restrictions, alleviating investor concerns regarding the world’s two largest economies. Domestically, investor attention now shifts to upcoming PMI releases, with official data scheduled for this week and private surveys set for next week.

Offshore Yuan Hovers Near 1-Year High

The South Korean won weakened to around 1,433 per dollar on Wednesday, extending losses for the second session as investors remained cautious amid the APEC summit talks in Gyeongju. Authorities maintain a neutral assessment of the prospects for progress, stating that the administration is “neither optimistic nor pessimistic”. Discussions are expected to concentrate on the implementation of South Korea’s $350 billion investment pledge under the framework trade agreement reached in July. Prospects for concluding an agreement to reduce US import tariffs on South Korean goods during Trump’s visit have diminished, with discussions stalled over the valuation methodology and funding structure of the investment pledge. Separately, investors were also focused on the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision later in the day. Markets widely expect a 25-basis-point rate cut, though uncertainty over the Fed’s forward guidance has kept sentiment cautious ahead of the announcement.

South Korean Won Slips Amid APEC Summit

The Australian dollar inched higher to around $0.660 on Wednesday, hitting its highest level in three weeks, as investors sharply pared back bets on a rate cut next week after inflation data came in hotter than expected. Australia’s monthly CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year in September 2025, up from 3% in August and above expectations of 3.1%, marking the highest level since July 2024. The upturn was mainly driven by higher housing and transport costs, keeping inflation above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2–3% target range. Core inflation also rose more than expected, with the trimmed mean CPI up 1% from the previous quarter and 3% annually, the first time it increased since December 2022. The latest figures reinforced the view that price pressures remain persistent despite signs of a cooling labor market, prompting investors to significantly scale back bets on further easing. Markets now price in a nearly 90% chance the RBA will hold the 3.6% cash rate at its November 4 meeting.

Aussie Dollar Edges Higher After Faster CPI Print

The Japanese yen strengthened past 152 per dollar on Wednesday, rising for a second straight session as investors positioned for the Bank of Japan’s policy decision this week, where rates are expected to remain unchanged. Still, policymakers are set to debate conditions for resuming rate hikes as tariff-related risks ease, though persistent inflation continues to cloud the outlook. The yen advanced about 0.5% on Tuesday after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama to discuss currency volatility, urging “sound monetary policy” in what was viewed as a critique of Japan’s slow rate normalization. Japan’s economic revitalization minister also said the government is closely watching the yen’s weakness, while noting that a softer currency still benefits exporters. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump met with new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Tuesday, pledging deeper US-Japan ties and signing agreements on trade and critical minerals.

Yen Extends Gains Ahead of BOJ Decision

The dollar index was little changed around 98.7 on Wednesday, holding small losses from earlier in the week as investors braced for the latest Federal Reserve policy decision, where it is widely expected to deliver a quarter-point rate cut. Traders will look for any hints from Chair Jerome Powell about the pace of additional easing, with another rate reduction in December being priced in by markets. Investors also looked ahead to the closely watched meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, expected to finalize a framework that could pause higher US tariffs and China’s rare earth export controls. Meanwhile, the dollar extended losses against the yen after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama to discuss foreign exchange volatility, urging “sound monetary policy” in what was viewed as a subtle critique of Japan’s slow rate normalization.

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