The Netherlands’ seasonally adjusted unemployment rate ticked down to 3.9% in April 2026, the lowest level in eight months, from 4.0% in the previous month. The number of unemployed people fell by 10 thousand to 397 thousand. In addition, there were 3.2 million people who had not recently looked for work and/or were not immediately available for it, primarily those who are retired or unable to work due to illness or disability. At the end of April, the number of unemployment benefit recipients stood at 203.1 thousand, 0.5% higher than in the previous month. In April 2025, the jobless rate was slightly lower at 3.8%.

Dutch Jobless Rate Falls to 8-Month Low

Consumer confidence in the Netherlands fell further to -46 in May 2026 from -44 in April, marking the weakest reading since January 2023. The decline was mainly driven by a drop in willingness to buy, which slipped to -28 from -26. Perceptions of the economic situation over the past 12 months also worsened to -75 from -72, while expectations for the next 12 months improved slightly to -69 from -71. Households’ view of the broader economic climate remained broadly unchanged at -72, still deeply negative and reflecting persistently pessimistic sentiment about both current conditions and the outlook. Financial sentiment weakened further, with assessments of the past 12 months falling to -22 from -18 and expectations for the coming year edging down to -17 from -15. Willingness to make large purchases also deteriorated to -45 from -43, underscoring continued caution among consumers.

Dutch Consumer Mood Weakest in Over 3 Years

China’s fiscal spending climbed 1.3% year-on-year to CNY 9.48 trillion (USD 1.09 trillion) in the first four months of 2026. Spending execution reached 31.6% of the annual budget target, the fastest pace for the January–April period in five years, signaling that fiscal policy is being front-loaded to support economic stabilization. Central government spending rose 5.1%, while local government outlays increased 0.7%, official data showed. During the period, fiscal revenue increased 3.5% to CNY 8.34 trillion (USD 1.23 trillion), sharply accelerating from a 1.1% rise in the first quarter, highlighting an improvement in fiscal revenue. The country’s tax revenue grew 3.9% year-on-year to CNY 6.81 trillion, higher than the 1.7% increase recorded in the first quarter. Meanwhile, non-tax revenue rose 1.6% to CNY 1.53 trillion.

China Fiscal Spending Rises 1.3% in Jan-April

India’s BSE Sensex opened about 0.3% higher at 75,569 on Thursday, following modest gains from the previous session as traders bet on a possible US-Iran deal and an end to the Middle East conflict, which pushed crude oil prices lower. Shipping data also showed that two Chinese oil tankers exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, a tentative sign of easing pressure in the Gulf. Investors also await India’s HSBC composite, manufacturing, and services PMI flash readings for May later in the day, which could provide fresh cues on the strength of economic activity and influence market sentiment. Protean shares surged 20% after the company posted a sharp year-on-year increase in profit and announced a final dividend along with new board appointments, while Sansera jumped 12.5% as its revenue and profit rose strongly from a year earlier, also accompanied by a final dividend and new director appointments. Other top performers included Samaan (+9.8%), Triveni Turbine (+5.9%), and Paras (+6%).

Sensex Holds Gains for Second Day

Malaysian palm oil futures slipped about 1% to below MYR 4,600 per tonne, sustaining a muted trend as weaker edible oil prices on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges weighed on sentiment. Weak exports added pressure, with cargo surveyors estimating shipments during May 1–20 fell 13.9%–20.5% from the prior month. Demand worries deepened after April imports from top buyer India plunged 26% in April from March to a four-month low, reflecting softer institutional buying and a narrowing discount versus rival oils. Still, losses were cushioned by firmer crude oil, which bolstered biodiesel demand expectations and underscored global supply risks. Support also came from Indonesia’s plan to centralize commodity exports from the world's largest producer, including palm oil, raising concerns over supply disruptions. Jakarta will also lift its biodiesel mandate to B50 from B40 in July, while Malaysia is set to raise its blending requirement to B15 from B10 in June.

Palm Oil Extends Subdued Momentum

Copper futures traded around $6.28 per pound on Thursday after rising 2% in the previous session, supported by improving global risk appetite amid renewed optimism over a potential peace agreement between the US and Iran. President Trump said the US was in the final stages of negotiations with Iran, fueling hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen. The prospect of restored shipping flows triggered a sharp decline in oil prices, helping ease inflationary pressures and reducing concerns about further interest rate hikes. Copper prices also drew support from a rally in artificial intelligence-related technology stocks, which strengthened expectations for demand tied to data infrastructure development. In corporate news, Codelco is targeting roughly $2 billion in cost reductions and additional revenue through the integration of operations across three copper mines, as the company seeks to counter the effects of stagnant production and rising debt levels.

Copper Strengthens as Risk Appetite Returns

The Indian rupee hovered near 96.4 per dollar, pausing losses after briefly crossing the 97-per-dollar mark for the first time. Softer oil prices offered temporary relief as Brent crude fell more than 5% to near $105 per barrel, while the US 10-year Treasury yield slipped below 4.60%, improving market sentiment. The rupee had remained under pressure, falling nearly 2.5% over nine sessions amid strong dollar demand, rising US yields, and heavy foreign fund outflows. Meanwhile, the central bank has already announced a $5 billion dollar-rupee swap auction scheduled for May 26. The Reserve Bank of India is also reportedly considering measures to stabilize the rupee, including a possible rate hike, additional swap auctions, and schemes to attract foreign currency inflows from non-resident Indians, which officials estimate could bring in up to $50 billion. Markets are now focused on the RBI’s June 3–5 policy meeting for signals on further support measures.

Rupee Finds Relief as Oil Prices Ease

Indonesian shares tumbled 136 points or 2.2% to 6,185 in early Thursday trade, extending losses for an eighth straight session and lingering at their weakest level in 13 months. A Wall Street rally overnight failed to lift sentiment as investors shunned risk after President Prabowo tightened export rules on key commodities, including palm oil, coal, and ferroalloys, mandating shipments through a single state-owned exporter. Caution also mounted ahead of the Q1 current account data due Friday, following a Q4 deficit driven by a wider oil gap. Still, losses were capped by Bank Indonesia’s 50bps hike to 5.25% on Wednesday, aimed at stabilizing the rupiah after repeated record lows since April. The government, meanwhile, projected 2027 growth at 5.8% to 6.5%, keeping its 8% target for 2029. Declines were broad, led by transport, energy, and industrials, with Barito Pacific (-9.9%), Medco Energi (-8.7%), Darma Henwa (-7.7%), and Amman Mineral Intl. (-5.7%) among the sharpest decliners.

Indonesia Stocks Under Pressure After Export Controls

Moody’s Ratings on Wednesday downgraded Mexico’s credit rating to “Baa3” from “Baa2” and revised its outlook to stable from negative, saying weaker fiscal conditions and conflicting policy priorities were undermining its policy credibility. The agency cited a sustained weakening in fiscal strength that accelerated in 2024 and is expected to persist, pointing to “rigid” spending, a “narrow” revenue base, and support for the state-run oil firm Petróleos Mexicanos. The economy is expected to remain subdued, as vulnerability to fiscal shocks increases, while GDP is projected to gradually return to around 2% growth. Mexico’s central bank, in its latest quarterly report, forecast economic growth of 1.6% this year and 2% by 2027, while the government has projected up to 2.9% growth next year. Standard & Poor’s credit rating for Mexico stands at BBB with a negative outlook, while DBRS’s rating for Mexico was last reported at BBB with a stable outlook.

Moody’s Downgrades Mexico’s Ratings to Baa3

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell below 5% on Thursday, extending declines for a third straight session and hitting a two-week low as softer labor market data reduced expectations of further rate hikes. Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in April 2026, above both March’s reading and market expectations of 4.3%, and marking the highest jobless rate since November 2021. At the same time, employment unexpectedly dropped by 18,600 to 14.74 million, sharply missing forecasts for a 17,500 increase and posting the first monthly decline since November 2025. This led investors to pare back bets on further monetary tightening following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s three consecutive rate hikes. Reinforcing the dovish outlook, preliminary business activity data showed that manufacturing growth slowed, with the PMI easing to 50.3 in May from 51.3 in April, while the services PMI slipped into contraction territory at 47.7 from 50.7 previously.

Australia 10Y Yield Hits 2-Week Low

The Australian dollar depreciated to around $0.71 on Thursday, reversing gains from the previous session as a surprise rise in the unemployment rate dampened expectations for further interest-rate hikes. Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate edged up to 4.5% in April 2026, exceeding both March’s reading and market expectations of 4.3%. The latest figure marked the highest unemployment rate since November 2021. Meanwhile, employment fell by 18,600 to 14.74 million in March 2026, missing market expectations for a 17,500 gain and marking the first decline since November. This prompted investors to scale back expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise the cash rate to 4.6% in June, following three consecutive rate hikes. Adding to the bearish tone, preliminary data showed the Manufacturing PMI eased to 50.3 in May from 51.3 in April, while the Services PMI slipped into contraction territory at 47.7 from 50.7 previously.

Australian Dollar Falls as Hike Bets Fade

Australian stocks jumped 145 points, or 1.7%, to 8,641 by midday Thursday, rebounding from the prior session’s weakness. The rally tracked an overnight Wall Street rally after U.S. President Trump said Washington was in the “final stages” of negotiations with Iran, according to a pool report, boosting investor optimism. Locally, inflation expectations eased in May after hitting an over three-year high in April. Meanwhile, flash data on Australia's factory activity showed a continued growth in May despite the reading softening from April. However, strength was capped by domestic labor market data indicating the highest jobless rate in over four years in April, with employment falling for the first time since November. Gains were almost broad-based, led by electronic tech, financials, producer manufacturing, and logistics. Among standouts were Mineral Resources (4.3%), Qantas Airways (3.8%), BHP Group (3.2%), and Evolution Mining (3.0%). The four major banks climbed between 1.1% to 2.4%.

Australia Equities Track Wall Street Gains

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield slipped to around 2.77% on Thursday, retreating from 30-year highs as falling oil prices eased pressure on Japan’s import-dependent economy amid growing optimism over a potential peace agreement between the US and Iran. President Donald Trump said the US was in the final stages of negotiations with Iran, fueling expectations that the strategically important Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen. On the domestic front, data showed Japanese exports rose 14.8% in April, surpassing forecasts on the back of strong demand from China, the US, ASEAN nations and the European Union. Earlier data this week also indicated that Japan’s economy expanded more than expected in the first quarter, reinforcing expectations of a near-term interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan. Meanwhile, Japanese government bonds remained under pressure after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi urged the finance ministry to prepare a supplementary budget to address rising commodity prices.

Japan 10Y Yield Slips as Oil Retreats

Australia’s consumer inflation expectations fell to 5.6% in May 2026 from April’s more than three-year high of 5.9%. Still, concerns over stubborn price pressures persisted after a Reserve Bank official warned that the recent surge in oil prices amid the Iran conflict posed a challenge and risked lifting inflation expectations further. Meanwhile, minutes from the RBA’s May meeting showed policymakers expect underlying inflation to remain above 3% until late 2027, only returning to the midpoint of the 2–3% target range by mid-2028. Earlier data also highlighted lingering inflationary pressures, with Australia’s annual inflation rate accelerating to 4.6% in March, the highest since September 2023 and well above the central bank’s target band. The RBA in May delivered the third rate hikes, bringing borrowing costs to 4.35%, the highest level since January 2025.

Australia Inflation Expectations Ease Slightly

The New Zealand dollar held its recent advance at around $0.586 after President Donald Trump again said that the conflict with Iran would conclude “very quickly,” reviving hopes for a peace deal. Further supporting the currency, data released today showed New Zealand’s trade surplus widened to a record high in April, well above expectations, driven by strong export growth. This signaled resilient external demand despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. However, recent indicators point to a softening in domestic economic momentum. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has maintained a cautious stance on policy tightening, as the economy has only recently emerged from recession and still has significant spare capacity. Still, market pricing suggests around a 30% chance of a rate increase later this month and a 90% probability in July, amid inflation concerns due to elevated oil prices.

New Zealand Dollar Holds Gains

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note remained below 4.6% on Thursday after falling sharply in the previous session, as hopes for an imminent peace agreement between the US and Iran allayed inflation and rate hike fears. President Donald Trump said the US was in the final stages of negotiations with Iran, fueling hopes that the strategically important Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen. The prospect of renewed shipping flows triggered a steep decline in oil prices, helping to moderate inflationary pressures and lowering expectations that central banks will need to tighten monetary policy further. Still, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting showed that most policymakers believe another rate increase this year could remain appropriate if inflation stays above the Fed’s 2% target. Markets continue to broadly expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged through the rest of the year, although traders currently see roughly a 50% chance of a rate hike in December.

US 10-Year Yield Holds Decline

The Japanese yen strengthened past 159 per dollar on Thursday, snapping its recent decline as oil prices and the US dollar weakened amid growing optimism over a potential peace agreement between the US and Iran. President Donald Trump said the US was in the final stages of negotiations with Iran, raising expectations that the strategically important Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen. On the domestic front, data showed Japanese exports rose 14.8% in April, exceeding forecasts on the back of solid demand from China, the US, ASEAN nations and the European Union. Meanwhile, the yen remained close to the key 160-per-dollar threshold that reportedly prompted intervention by Japanese authorities in late April and early May. Several officials in Tokyo recently indicated that policymakers could intervene in the foreign exchange market as often as necessary to stabilize the currency if excessive volatility persists.

Yen Strengthens as Oil and Dollar Retreat

Employment in Australia fell by 18,600 to a  14.74 million in March 2026, reversing an upwardly revised 23,300 increase in the previous month and missing market expectations for a 17,500 gain. It was the first decline since November, as full-time employment shrank by 10,700 to 10.16 million and part-time employment slid 7,900 to 4.58 million. The employment-to-population ratio remained was down to 63.7% from the prior 63.9, marking the fifth straight month of decline. Meanwhile, the participation rate edged down to 66.7% from the prior 66.8%. On an annual basis, total employment rose by 128,900, or 0.9%.

Australia Employment Unexpectedly Drops

The Shanghai Composite rose 0.5% to 4,183 on Thursday, while the Shenzhen Component Index climbed 1.5% to 15,810, buoyed by renewed hopes surrounding US-Iran peace negotiations and strength in technology stocks. President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran were in the “final stages,” easing concerns about energy-driven inflationary pressures. Technology stocks provided additional momentum after Nvidia posted better-than-expected fiscal Q1 results and issued a robust sales outlook for Q2. Among tech stocks, notable gainers included Hygon Information Technology (7%), Contemporary Amperex Technology (1.2%), Zhongji Innolight (2.2%), and Victory Giant Technology (2.4%). Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping is reportedly expected to visit North Korea as early as next week, marking his first trip there in seven years and underscoring warming ties between the longtime allies, which recently resumed cross-border train and air services.

China Stocks Rise on Deal Hopes, Tech Rally

The Hang Seng Index rose 127 points, or 0.5%, to 25,780 on Thursday, recovering losses from the previous session as benchmark tracked gains after Wall Street advanced, with investors encouraged by easing geopolitical concerns following progress in US-Iran negotiations, which helped improve risk sentiment and supported a pullback in oil prices. On the domestic front, sentiment was also lifted by strength in global equities, as optimism over artificial intelligence demand continued to underpin technology shares, even as volatility in NVIDIA weighed on parts of the chip sector after a lukewarm reaction to its sales forecast. Electronic technology shares surged about 12.2%, led by Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, which gained around 4.5%. Other notable movers included Tencent Holdings (0.1%), AIA Group (1.3%), Meituan (2.8%), Lenovo Group (1.4%), and XPeng Inc. (4.1%).

Hong Kong Shares Advance Slightly

US natural gas futures rose to $3.03 per MMBtu on Thursday after falling 3.5% in the previous session as the intense heat affecting the Mid-Atlantic region is expected to subside. Milder weather conditions are forecast through the long Memorial Day holiday weekend and over the next week, which is likely to curb gas demand following unusually high temperatures earlier this week. In addition, flows to major US LNG export facilities have declined from a monthly record of 18.8 bcfd in April to around 17.0 bcfd so far in May, amid seasonal maintenance at plants including Golden Pass and Freeport LNG. Market participants now await the storage report, which is expected to show a near-normal injection of 96 Bcf for the past week. In other developments, three US LNG vessels are reportedly scheduled to arrive in China in June, the first such shipments since February 2025.

US Natgas Prices Rebound

The dollar index slipped to around 99 on Thursday, pulling back from a six-week high as growing optimism over a potential peace agreement between the US and Iran eased inflation and irate hike concerns while dampening safe-haven demand for the greenback. President Trump said the US was in the final stages of negotiations with Iran, raising expectations that the strategically important Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen. The prospect of renewed shipping flows triggered a sharp decline in oil prices, helping to moderate inflationary pressures and reducing expectations that central banks will need to tighten policy. Still, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting indicated that most policymakers believe another rate hike this year could remain appropriate if inflation stays above the Fed’s 2% target. Markets still broadly expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged for the rest of the year, though traders currently assign roughly a 50% probability to a rate increase in December.

Dollar Eases on Iran Deal Optimism

Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 4.5% in April, above both the previous month and market expectations of 4.3%. It was the highest level since last September, as the number of unemployed rose by 33,000 to 692,500 from 659,500 in March. The number of part-time job seekers climbed by 22,300 to 241,700, while those in full-time work rose by 10,700 to 450,800. Employment unexpectedly fell by 18,600 to 14.74 million, defying estimates for a 17,500 increase.

Australia Jobless Rate Highest in 7 Months

The benchmark KOSPI surged over 6% to around 7,680 on Thursday, rebounding sharply from the previous session as investor sentiment improved on easing geopolitical concerns and strong momentum in the semiconductor sector. US President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran were in the “final stages,” helping ease concerns over disruptions in the Middle East and cooling oil prices from recent highs. At the same time, technology shares led the rally amid sustained optimism surrounding AI-related chip demand and robust export growth. Heavyweight Samsung Electronics jumped 6.0%, while SK Hynix advanced 7.9%. Samsung Electronics also reached a tentative wage agreement with its labor union, averting a planned strike that had raised concerns over disruptions to global chip supply chains. Notable gains were also seen in Hyundai Motor (7.3%), SK Square (8.1%), LG Energy Solution (3.6%), Samsung Electro-Mechanics (10.3%), Doosan Enerbility (6.8%), and Kia Corporation (9.5%).

South Korean Shares Rebound on US-Iran Deal Hopes

Silver hovered near $76 an ounce on Thursday after climbing roughly 3% in the previous session, supported by growing optimism that an imminent peace agreement between the US and Iran could ease inflationary pressures and reduce concerns over interest rate hikes. President Donald Trump said the US was in the final stages of negotiations with Iran, fueling expectations that the strategically important Strait of Hormuz may soon reopen. The prospect of restored shipping flows triggered a sharp decline in oil prices, helping temper inflation fears and lowering expectations that central banks will need to tighten monetary policy. At the same time, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting showed that most officials believe a rate increase this year could still be warranted if inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Investors remain divided on whether the central bank will raise rates by December or leave borrowing costs unchanged through year-end.

Silver Holds Firm on Iran Deal Hopes

The Nikkei 225 Index jumped 3% to above 61,600 while the broader Topix Index gained 1.6% to 3,850 on Thursday, recovering losses from earlier in the week and tracking gains on Wall Street overnight amid hopes for an imminent peace deal between the US and Iran. President Donald Trump said the US was in the final stages of negotiations with Iran, fueling hopes that the strategically important Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen. The prospect of resumed shipping traffic triggered a sharp decline in oil prices, easing pressure on Japan’s import-dependent economy. On the domestic front, data showed Japanese exports rose 14.8% in April, surpassing expectations on the back of solid demand from China, the US, ASEAN nations and the European Union. Financial and technology shares spearheaded the rally, with gains from Mitsubishi UFJ (3.6%), Sumitomo Mitsui (4.2%), Mizuho Financial (4.7%), Advantest (4.1%) and Tokyo Electron (5%).

Japanese Stocks Rally on Optimism Over Iran Deal

The S&P Global Japan Manufacturing PMI declined to 54.5 in May 2026 from 55.1 in March, which was the highest reading since January 2022 and in line with market forecasts, preliminary estimates showed. However, the latest reading still signaled expansion, though at a softer pace, as output continued to rise. Meanwhile, new order growth eased, while foreign sales increased.

Japan Manufacturing Growth Matches Estimates

Japan’s S&P Global Services PMI edged down to 50.0 in May 2026 from a final 51.0 in the previous month, a preliminary reading showed. It marked the lowest figure since March 2025, pointing to a stagnation in the service sector.

Japan Services PMI Lowest in 14 Months

Japan’s S&P Global Composite PMI was down to 51.1 in May 2025 from a final 52.2 in the prior month, flash data showed. It was the lowest reading since December despite marking the 14th straight month of private-sector expansion.

Japan Composite PMI Slips to 5-Month Low

Japan's imports rose 9.7% year-on-year to JPY 10,205.4 billion in April 2026, easing slightly from a 10.9% increase in the previous month but still surpassing market expectations of 8.3%. Domestic demand remained resilient, partly supported by the Japanese government’s sizeable stimulus measures introduced in late 2025. The latest reading marked the third consecutive month of import growth, although it was the softest pace in the current streak.

Japan Imports Rise the Least in 3 Months

Japan's exports jumped 14.8% yoy to a near-record high of JPY 10,507.3 billion in April 2026, accelerating from 11.5% growth in the prior month while marking the fastest pace in three months and topping market forecasts of 9.3%. The result was supported by robust demand from China, the U.S., the ASEAN countries, and the EU.

Japan Export Growth Beats Estimates

US stock futures moved lower on Thursday as investors reacted cautiously to Nvidia’s latest earnings report. In extended trading, Nvidia shares fell more than 1% despite the chipmaker beating expectations for both earnings and guidance, as concerns persisted over intensifying competition in AI computing and efforts by major clients to develop proprietary chips in-house. Meanwhile, Intuit slumped more than 13% after reporting weaker-than-expected revenue and announcing plans to cut roughly 17% of its workforce. On the other hand, e.l.f. Beauty gained around 4% after posting stronger-than-expected earnings and revenue while also saying it would reverse some tariff-related price increases. During Wednesday’s regular session, the Dow Jones rose 1.31%, the S&P 500 advanced 1.08%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.54%, supported by declining oil prices and lower Treasury yields after President Donald Trump said the US was nearing the final stages of negotiations with Iran.

US Futures Decline Following Nvidia Results

Japan’s trade balance swung to a surplus of JPY 301.9 billion in April 2026 from a deficit of JPY 149.5 billion in the same month a year earlier, sharply beating market expectations for a shortfall of JPY 29.7 billion. It was the largest trade surplus since November, as export growth continued to outpace imports. Exports surged 14.8% year-on-year to a near-record JPY 10,507.3 billion, accelerating from an 11.5% rise in March and marking the strongest growth in three months, supported by robust demand from China, the U.S., ASEAN economies, and the EU. Meanwhile, imports increased 9.7% to JPY 10,205.4 billion, easing slightly from March’s 10.9% gain but still exceeding market forecasts of 8.3%. Import demand remained resilient, partly supported by the Japanese government’s sizeable stimulus measures introduced in late 2025.

Japan Unexpectedly Posts Trade Surplus

Japan’s core machinery orders, which exclude volatile sectors such as ships and electric power, dropped 9.4% month-over-month to JPY 1,010.9 billion in March 2026, reversing sharply from a 13.6% rise in the prior month and worse than market expectations for an 8.1% decline. It was the steepest decline in machinery orders since last November. On an annual basis, core machinery orders rose 5.9%, easing sharply from a 24.7% surge previously, marking the softest growth since last November, when machinery orders fell by 6.4%, though the reading beat forecasts of 4.5%.

Japan Machinery Orders Fall the Most in 4 Months

Gold traded above $4,500 an ounce on Thursday after rising more than 1% in the previous session, supported by growing optimism that an imminent peace agreement between the US and Iran could ease inflationary pressures and reduce concerns over interest rate hikes. President Donald Trump said the US was in the final stages of negotiations with Iran, fueling expectations that the strategically important Strait of Hormuz may soon reopen. The prospect of restored shipping flows triggered a sharp decline in oil prices, helping temper inflation fears and lowering expectations that central banks will need to tighten monetary policy. At the same time, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting showed that most officials believe a rate increase this year could still be warranted if inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Investors remain divided on whether the central bank will raise rates by December or leave borrowing costs unchanged through year-end.

Gold Firms Up on Iran Deal Hopes

Brent crude futures steadied above $105 per barrel on Thursday after tumbling more than 5% in the previous session, as President Trump said the US was nearing the final phase of negotiations with Iran, fueling expectations that Middle Eastern oil supply could gradually return to the market. Tehran is currently evaluating Washington’s latest draft response to its 14-point proposal. A potential deal would likely lead to the removal of both countries’ naval blockades on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, where tanker traffic has been disrupted since March. Supply optimism was further supported by satellite data showing three supertankers passing through the strait. Still, analysts cautioned that global physical oil markets are likely to remain tight, given that shipments from the Persian Gulf can take nearly two months to reach end markets. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.'s CEO said full recovery in Middle Eastern oil flows is unlikely before late 2027.

Brent Steadies After Sharp Drop

WTI crude futures steadied near $99 per barrel on Thursday after tumbling more than 5% in the previous session, as President Trump said the US was nearing the final phase of negotiations with Iran, fueling expectations that Middle Eastern oil supply could gradually return to the market. Tehran is currently evaluating Washington’s latest draft response to its 14-point proposal. A potential deal would likely lead to the removal of both countries’ naval blockades on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, where tanker traffic has been disrupted since March. Supply optimism was further supported by satellite data showing three supertankers passing through the strait. Still, analysts cautioned that global physical oil markets are likely to remain tight, given that shipments from the Persian Gulf can take nearly two months to reach end markets. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.'s CEO said full recovery in Middle Eastern oil flows is unlikely before late 2027.

Oil Steadies After Sharp Drop

The S&P Global Australia Services PMI Business Activity Index dropped to 47.7 in May 2026 from a final 50.7 in the prior month, a preliminary reading showed. It was the second time of drop in three months for the service sector amid disruptions cause by the Middle East conflict.

Australia Services Sector  Marks Second Drop in Three Months

The NZX 50 fell 22 points, or 0.2%, to 12,739 in Thursday morning trade, retreating for the second straight session and marking its lowest level since March 24, mainly weighed down by utilities, consumer staples, and communication services. Caution also prevailed ahead of the release of New Zealand's retail sales data on Friday, with the market expecting quarterly retail sales growth to ease in Q1. However, an upbeat session on Wall Street overnight helped limit the losses, as inflation concerns eased after US President Trump stated that a deal with Iran could come soon, while Nvidia recorded earnings above expectations. Fresh data also helped cap further declines, as New Zealand's trade surplus reached a record high, with exports rising to an all-time high. Among early losers were Tower Limited (-5.8%), Contact Energy (-4.3%), A2 Milk (-1.3%), Mercury NZ (-0.6%), and Gentrack Group (-0.5%).

New Zealand Stocks Hit Near 4-Week Low

Australia’s S&P Global Australia Composite PMI fell to 47.8 in May 2025 from a final 50.4 in the previous month, flash estimates showed. The reading signaled the second contraction in three months, as business activity weakened across both the services and manufacturing sectors amid persistent uncertainty from the ongoing Middle East conflict, which has now entered its third month. Services activity returned to contraction territory after expanding in April, while manufacturing output declined for a fourth consecutive month.

Australia Private Sector Activity Falls Back Into Contraction

The S&P Global Australia Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.3 in May 2026 from 51.3 in April, preliminary data showed. The decline came as output contracted for the fourth consecutive month. On prices, input prices continued to fall, while output prices increased.

Australia Manufacturing Growth Eases in May

Imports to New Zealand increased 3.4% year-on-year to NZD 6.7 billion in April 2026. Import growth was driven by higher purchases of mechanical machinery and equipment (10%), electrical machinery and equipment (22%), vehicles, parts, and accessories (16%), and precious metals, jewellery, and coins (76%).

New Zealand Imports Rise 3.4% in April

New Zealand’s exports grew 12% year-on-year to a record high of NZD 8.6 billion in April 2026. Export growth was driven by higher sales of precious metals, jewellery, and coins (149%); meat and edible offal (26%); milk powder, butter, and cheese (7.0%); and crude oil (388%).

New Zealand Exports Hit Record Peak

New Zealand's trade surplus widened to NZD 1.92 billion in April 2026, up from NZD 1.20 billion in the same month a year earlier, beating estimates of a NZD 0.98 billion surplus. It marked the largest trade surplus on record, as exports rose more than imports. Exports increased 7.3% year-on-year to NZD 8.6 billion, while imports rose 3.4% to NZD 6.7 billion.

New Zealand Posts Largest Trade Surplus on Record

The Bank of Jamaica maintained its policy rate at 5.50% during its May meeting as the inflation outlook remained highly uncertain amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising international commodity prices, particularly crude oil. The central bank noted that higher fuel and transport costs are expected to push headline inflation above the 4–6% target range during the June and September 2026 quarters from 4.3% in April. While inflation is expected to gradually moderate as geopolitical tensions ease and global oil supplies normalize, risks remain tilted to the upside due to the possibility of a prolonged conflict, adverse weather conditions, stronger inflation expectations, and higher domestic spending linked to Hurricane Melissa recovery efforts. Meanwhile, economic growth for fiscal year 2026/27 is projected within a 1.0% to 3.0% range, although risks remain skewed to the downside due to the potential impact of the conflict on tourism and domestic activity.

Bank of Jamaica Holds Base Interest Rate in May

South Korea’s producer prices rose 6.9% year-on-year in April 2026, accelerating from a 4.1% increase in the previous month and marking the strongest rise since October 2022. Manufacturing producer prices climbed 11.3%, led by a 73.9% surge in coal and petroleum products. Prices for computers, electronic and optical equipment increased 17.4%, while chemical products rose 15.6% and basic metal products advanced 11.8%. Service prices also increased 3.8%, driven by a 26.2% jump in financial and insurance activities. Meanwhile, prices for agricultural, forestry, and marine products rose 1%, supported by a 10.4% increase in livestock prices. In contrast, utility prices declined 1.2%. On a monthly basis, producer prices rose 2.5%, accelerating from a 1.7% increase in March.

South Korea Producer Inflation Hits Highest Since 2022

The Ibovespa jumped 1.8% to close at 177,356 on Wednesday, marking the benchmark’s biggest daily gain since early April, as easing oil prices and lower bond yields boosted risk appetite. Oil prices retreated after some ships managed to cross the Strait of Hormuz following 80 days of disruption, raising hopes that global supply conditions could gradually normalize. The pullback in crude prices helped ease inflation concerns and pushed bond yields lower, supporting financial stocks and the broader index. Itaú rose 2.3%, Bradesco gained 2.4%, and Itaúsa advanced 2.7%. Utilities also posted strong gains, with Auren Energia up 2.2%, Sabesp adding 2.1%, and Eneva climbing 4.1%. Other notable performers included Ambev (+2.6%) and Rede D'Or (+2.6%). In contrast, Petrobras fell 3.2% as oil prices declined.

Ibovespa Posts Biggest Daily Gain Since April

The S&P/TSX Composite Index gained 1.2% to close at 34,162 on Wednesday, posting its biggest advance in nearly three weeks as mining, banking, and technology shares led gains. A pullback in oil prices eased pressure on long-term borrowing costs, supporting heavyweight financial stocks. Royal Bank of Canada rose 1.9%, while TD Bank gained 1.4%, and both BMO and Brookfield advanced 2.3%. Mining stocks also moved higher, with Agnico Eagle adding 2.7% and Barrick rising 3.6% as gold prices increased alongside a decline in Treasury yields. The move followed signs of incoming energy supply from the Middle East, which helped temper expectations of further inflation pressure. In the technology sector, Shopify climbed 3.8% ahead of Nvidia’s earnings release, which investors viewed as a key test of the strength of the AI-driven market rally. Nvidia is expected to report its fastest sales growth in more than a year.

TSX Posts Biggest Gain in Nearly Three Weeks

The Dow Jones Index rose 621 points or 1.26 percent on Wednesday to close at 49985 points. Leading the gains are Goldman Sachs (5.74%), Nike (4.17%) and Boeing (3.34%).

The Dow Jones Index Closes 1.26% Higher

US stocks remained higher in after-hour trading on Wednesday after Nvidia posted results that topped estimates. Nvidia shares pared immediate losses after the release of results to trade over 0.5% higher, following a near 2% gain in the regular Wednesday session. Revenues for the April quarter topped $81 billion, as expected, but the forecast of $91 billion in revenues for the July quarter fell short of expectations by select analysts, contrasting slightly with the usual comfortable beats in outlooks. The company also refrained from forecasting any sales to China, despite CEO Jensen Huang's visit to Beijing earlier this month. The S&P 500 added 1% on the Wednesday session while the Dow and Nasdaq 100 gained 1.2%. Three supertankers left the Strait of Hormuz with full cargoes as President Trump stated a deal with Iran could come soon, taming concerns of energy inflation. Meanwhile, TJX and Target gained sharply after posting their results.

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