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The Indonesian rupiah traded around IDR 17,720 per U.S. dollar on Wednesday, after briefly firming to around IDR 17,650 in the prior session. The currency came under pressure amid growing caution over plans for a potentially massive protest in Jakarta Thursday, with demonstrators calling on parliament to immediately pass the Asset Forfeiture Bill. Traders also remained cautious ahead of next week's August inflation data, as El Niño-related risks raised concerns about higher food prices. July trade figures are also due, with the rupiah facing persistent external pressures and uncertainty over global energy markets. Still, losses were capped by hopes of policy continuity under acting Governor Destry Damayanti, with Bank Indonesia expected to stay focused on currency stability. Globally, the dollar steadied ahead of the latest U.S. PCE inflation report, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, as well as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium Friday.

Rupiah Weakens as Political, Inflation Risks Mount

India’s BSE Sensex rose about 0.4% to open at 77,977 on Wednesday, following gains in the previous session, as falling crude oil prices eased concerns over inflation and corporate margins, while hopes of a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz lifted investor sentiment. Brent crude fell about 2.7% to around $86.20 a barrel. Investors, however, remained cautious amid global uncertainty, with markets also tracking US tech stocks ahead of Nvidia’s results and movements in global bond yields. Domestically, investors are weighing signs of a moderation in India’s economic growth, with Q2 GDP data due next week and growth expected to ease to 7.1% from 7.8% in Q1. Markets are also watching signals from the RBI after recent communication on monetary policy and meeting minutes raised questions among investors about the central bank’s policy stance. Notable gainers included Hindustan Copper (2.8%), Netweb (2.0%), Hindustan Zinc (4.2%), Cyient (6.9%), and BSE Ltd (1.6%).

Sensex Rises as Oil Prices Fall

Copper futures climbed above $6.7 per pound on Wednesday, reaching a new all-time high as supply-side risks persisted despite a recent easing of the market squeeze. Traders continued to divert shipments toward the US amid elevated premiums and expectations of new tariffs under the Trump administration, with the White House yet to make a final decision on the matter. Copper inventories in warehouses tracked by the London Metal Exchange have fallen by almost half since mid-May following a 42-day streak of declines. Elsewhere, Zijin Mining warned that flooding at the Kamoa-Kakula copper complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo could cut its share of production by as much as 57,000 tons this year, underscoring ongoing risks to global supply. On the demand side, Chinese smelters have faced difficulties securing feedstock, increasing the need for imports.

Copper Hits Fresh Record High

Corn futures jumped above $5 per bushel, hitting their highest level since July 2023 as mounting concerns over US crop yields pointed to tighter supplies. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour recently estimated the 2026 US corn yield at 173.2 bushels per acre, well below the USDA’s latest forecast of 180.7 bushels, while production was projected at 15.34 billion bushels. The bearish supply outlook was reinforced by the USDA’s latest crop report, which showed the share of corn rated good-to-excellent falling three percentage points to 57% for the week ended August 23. Weather remains a key concern, with heat stress and excessive rainfall affecting parts of the Midwest and potentially limiting yields ahead of harvest. Meanwhile, US corn export inspections remain strong, with cumulative shipments up 26% from a year earlier despite a recent easing in weekly shipments to 1.3 million tones. Elsewhere, disruptions to Black Sea grain shipments continued to raise concerns over global supplies.

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