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Futures tracking Canada’s stock market rose on Thursday, setting the TSX to extend gains after a rally on Wednesday following the US midterm election results. The Democrats’ victory gives them a stronger platform to challenge US President Trump’s trade policies, although they still lack the votes needed to override his veto on efforts to reverse tariffs or revoke trade authorities. The US-Canada trade dispute began in 2025, when Trump signed orders imposing broad tariffs on Canadian goods. The measures took effect in March, alongside Canada’s retaliatory duties. Trump later exempted USMCA-compliant goods but imposed additional tariffs on steel, aluminum and automotive imports. On the earnings front, Canadian Natural Resources beat third-quarter profit estimates, supported by higher crude prices and stronger production. Nutrien, meanwhile, missed expectations amid surging sulfur input costs in its phosphate segment and lower nitrogen sales volumes.

TSX Futures Rise After Post-US Election Rally

US stock futures were mixed on Thursday, with S&P 500 futures up 0.2% and Dow Jones futures gaining around 330 points, while Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.6%. The mixed performance followed a strong rally in the previous session, triggered by a Democratic sweep of Congress in the US midterm elections. The rotation away from AI-related and technology stocks continued, amid concerns that the Democrats' victory could lead to tighter regulations on US data centres and weigh on semiconductor demand. In premarket trading, Apple rose 0.9%, Microsoft gained 0.4%, Alphabet advanced 1.6%, Amazon climbed 1.6% and Meta added 1.2%. Gains were also recorded by Eli Lilly (+1.1%), JPMorgan (+1.5%) and Walmart (+1.2%). In contrast, semiconductor stocks came under renewed pressure, with Nvidia falling 1.1%, Broadcom declining 1.9% and Micron Technology dropping 3.9%. Tesla and SpaceX also extended their losses, both down 1.9%. Qualcomm plunged nearly 10% after issuing a lacklustre profit forecast.

S&P and Dow Set to Extend Gains, Nasdaq Down

London's FTSE 100 traded 0.8% higher around 10,910 points on Thursday, after the Bank of England lifted interest rates for the first time in over three year, as widely expected. Market sentiment remained supported by easing bond yields and lower oil prices, after the Democrats' victory in the US raised prospects of an end to the Iran war. On the corporate front, precious metals miners Fresnilo, Endeavour and Hochschild all advanced, amid higher prices of gold and silver. Standard Chartered (2.7%), HSBC (1.2%), Barclays (up 1.6%), Lloyds (0.7%) continued to trade higher.
 Meanwhile, Next gained 2.7% after upgrading its sales outlook, while Diageo rose 2.6% after reporting an unexpected first-quarter sales growth.

FTSE 100 Holds on to Gains

The UK 10-year gilt yield pared its earlier decline after the Bank of England raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4%, marking its first increase in more than three years. The decision was split 8-1, with Catherine Mann dissenting in favor of a larger 50 bps hike. Governor Andrew Bailey signaled that further rate increases may be necessary unless the Iran war is resolved, which would help ease the inflationary pressures behind the latest hike. Markets have since strengthened their bets on further monetary tightening, with three additional rate increases now fully priced in by November 2027. The BoE also warned that inflation could peak at 4.9% in Q2 2027, while its adverse scenario points to a sharper increase to 6.2% in the Q3. Despite the domestic pressure on yields, global bond markets remained supported by Brent crude prices hovering near two-month lows and falling US Treasury yields following a sweeping Democratic victory in the US midterm elections.

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