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Silver climbed above $76 an ounce on Wednesday amid growing hopes that the US-Iran conflict could soon be resolved, after reports indicated that President Trump said a deal with Iran was in its “final stages”. The prospect of easing geopolitical tensions helped push oil prices lower for a second consecutive session, fueling expectations that the inflationary impact of the recent energy shock may remain contained and reducing pressure on central banks to raise interest rates further. Those expectations persisted despite minutes from the Fed’s April FOMC meeting showing that a majority of policymakers believe additional rate hikes could be necessary if inflation remains persistently above the Fed’s 2% target. Still, markets broadly expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged for the remainder of the year, although traders currently see roughly a 50% chance of a rate hike in December.

Silver Rises on Wednesday

US stocks rose further on Thursday with support from lower energy prices ahead of Nvidia's earnings results, due to update the state of the AI economy that has supported the stock market this year. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq 100 were over 1% higher. Three supertankers left the Strait of Hormuz with full cargoes as President Trump stated a deal with Iran could come soon, taming concerns of energy inflation. Nvidia gained 1.5% as it is likely to confirm sharp growth in earnings and orders, but the tone of its guidance is due to impact the whole tech sector as AI spending has carried the US investment last quarter and underpin productivity growth and infrastructure expenditure in coming years. The AI sector was also supported by reports that OpenAI is preparing to file for an IPO as soon as Friday, paving the way for more AI spending. Meanwhile, TJX and Target were both higher following their results. Broader sectors were also higher as yields retreated, despite hawkish Fed minutes.

US Stocks Hold Rebound

Gold rose to above $4,530 per ounce on Wednesday, halting the drop that bottomed at a two-month low of $4,490 last session, and tracking the respite for Treasuries as signs of incoming energy supply from the Middle East tamed expectations of higher inflation. President Trump stated the US was close to an agreement to end the conflict with Iran, while three supertankers exited the Persian Gulf with cargoes to Asia. The developments supported the possibility that inflation could rise less than feared, dimming the risks of a hawkish Federal Reserve. Evidence of high inflation had led multiple policymakers to dissent against the easing bias in the Fed's last rate hold. On top of that, fresh minutes from the meeting indicated that a majority of members noted it may be appropriate to raise interest rates this year if inflation remains above the 2% threshold. Markets are split on whether the central bank may deliver a rate hike by December or whether rates will stay put.

Gold Rebounds from Near 2-Month Low

The dollar index held lower around 99.1 on Wednesday, pulling back from the early-April highs reached in the previous session, as optimism grew that the US and Iran could soon reach a deal. According to a White House pool report, President Trump said negotiations with Iran are in their final stages, helping drive oil prices lower for a 2nd straight session. Even so, crude prices remain nearly 50% above pre-war levels. Investors remain concerned that elevated energy costs could fuel inflationary pressures and potentially force central banks to tighten monetary policy further. Minutes from the FOMC’s April meeting showed that a majority of policymakers believe additional rate hikes may be warranted if inflation stays persistently above the Fed’s 2% target. Markets still broadly expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year, though traders currently assign roughly a 50% probability to a rate increase in December.

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