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The Ibovespa plunged 3.3% to close at 183,104 on Tuesday as a global flight from risk intensified following the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader and strikes on Gulf energy hubs. The index dived nearly 5% intraday before paring losses after President Trump’s pledge of naval escorts for tankers in the Strait of Hormuz pulled oil prices off their daily peaks. Despite this reversal, the threat of an energy-driven inflationary shock weighed heavily on the BCB’s rate-cut outlook, hammering interest-sensitive sectors. Major banks led the rout, with Itaúsa and Bradesco dropping over 4.3%, while Vale slid 4.5% on global demand fears. The mining sector saw deeper pain as Gerdau and Bradespar fell more than 5.7%. On the data front, Brazil’s 2025 GDP grew 2.3%, the slowest since the pandemic, with a stagnant 0.1% Q4 confirming a sharp loss of momentum. While Braskem and Raízen bucked the trend with gains over 2.7%, the market remains gripped by regional chaos and high credit costs.

Ibovespa Plunges on Risk Aversion

Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index plunged 2.2% to close at 33,785 on Tuesday, reeling from a global flight to safety as the Middle East conflict threatened a massive inflationary shock. The index plummeted nearly 4% at its intraday lows before paring some losses after President Trump’s pledge to provide naval escorts and insurance for tankers in the Strait of Hormuz calmed immediate supply panic. This intervention pulled crude off its daily peaks, yet the resulting spike in bond yields still hammered interest-sensitive banks, with RBC and Scotiabank dropping 1.7% and 2.8% respectively. The mining sector was decimated as Agnico Eagle and Wheaton Precious Metals plunged over 8% following a sharp retreat in bullion. While Shopify bucked the trend with a 2.1% gain after its AI showcase, the broader market remains paralyzed by logistical risks and the threat of prolonged energy disruptions.

TSX Closes Sharply Lower

US equities pared deep intraday losses on Tuesday, with the S&P losing 0.9%, the Dow down 0.8%, while the Nasdaq shedded 1.1% as President Trump’s pledge to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz countered the initial shock of the US-Iran conflict. While the major averages plunged over 2.5% at their session lows, they recovered significantly after the promise of US naval intervention pulled Brent crude off its daily peaks. This reversal eased the spike in Treasury yields that had earlier hammered credit-sensitive tech giants. Materials and industrials led the remaining decline on lingering energy-cost fears, while Nvidia and Tesla dropped 1.3% and 2.7% respectively. Additionally, Blackstone fell 3.8% as reports of 1.7 billion dollars in net outflows from its private credit fund fueled sector jitters. Despite the late rebound, the market remains caught between a geopolitical energy crisis and the government's aggressive stance to stabilize global trade flows.

US Stocks Pare Sharp Losses

Brent crude eased toward $80 per barrel on Tuesday,  paring massive gains as President Trump’s pledge to provide naval escorts for tankers in the Strait of Hormuz calmed immediate supply panic. While prices surged over 8% earlier in the session following drone strikes on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery and fires at the UAE hub in Fujairah, the military commitment to ensure the free flow of energy triggered a sharp reversal from daily peaks. Despite the retreat, oil remains at June highs as shipping activity through the Persian Gulf remains stalled and insurers withdraw war-risk coverage. This logistical paralysis limits the relief from the escort announcement, as roughly one-fifth of global consumption remains at risk. Furthermore, the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader and the subsequent 4-day escalation of strikes on Gulf energy hubs continue to fuel volatility. Markets now focus on the resilience of UAE air defenses against a barrage of Tehran-backed missiles.

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