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Silver extended its decline to fall below $86 per ounce on Wednesday as investors evaluated escalating tensions in the Middle East alongside fresh US inflation data and their implications for the policy outlook of the Federal Reserve. The US-Israeli campaign against Iran entered its 12th day, with the Pentagon reporting its most intense strikes of the conflict and pledging to continue operations until the Islamic Republic is defeated. This stance contrasted with comments from President Trump suggesting the conflict could end sooner than expected. The war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices higher and reviving concerns about global inflation, which has led markets to scale back expectations for interest rate cuts from major central banks. Meanwhile, US CPI data showed inflation held steady at 2.4% in February, before the Iran war began, its lowest level since May 2025, while core inflation remained unchanged at 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021.

Silver Falls as Middle East Tensions and Fed Outlook Weigh

The dollar index resumed gains to 99.1 on Wednesday, hovering near the high levels reached since the war with Iran began earlier this month. Traders continue to monitor the war and its impact on oil markets. Oil saw brief relief amid reports that countries are preparing to release reserves, but prices resumed their rise, keeping concerns about an energy-driven inflation spike alive. On the data front, February inflation came in line with forecasts, showing stable but above-target CPI. However, the full effect of the energy surge from the conflict is yet to be reflected. The Fed is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate steady next week, with traders anticipating only one 25bps cut, possibly in September. The greenback was mostly higher against the euro and the yen but was losing against the Australian dollar as traders ramp up bets the RBA will raise interest rates next week.

Dollar Back to Above 99

Gold edged lower to around $5,180 per ounce on Wednesday as investors assessed escalating tensions in the Middle East alongside fresh US inflation data and their implications for the policy outlook of the Federal Reserve. The US and Israel launched some of the heaviest airstrikes of the conflict on Iran, while the war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices higher and raising concerns about renewed global inflation pressures. As a result, markets worldwide have scaled back expectations for interest rate cuts from major central banks. Meanwhile, US CPI data showed that inflation held steady at 2.4% in February, before the outbreak of the Iran war, remaining at the lowest level since May 2025. Core inflation was also unchanged at 2.5%, its lowest reading since March 2021. Despite the pullback, gold has surged more than 20% this year, hitting successive record highs amid heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Gold Eases From Record Levels

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose slightly to 4.18% on Wednesday, marking a second consecutive increase and reaching its highest level in about a month. Traders continue to monitor the war in Iran and its impact on oil markets. Oil saw brief relief amid reports that countries are preparing to release reserves, but prices resumed their rise, keeping concerns about an energy-driven inflation spike alive. On the data front, February inflation came in line with forecasts, showing stable but above-target CPI. However, the full effect of the energy surge from the conflict is yet to be reflected. The Fed is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate steady next week, with traders anticipating only one 25bps cut, possibly in September.

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