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Japan’s 10-year government bond yield held around 2.98% on Monday, remaining near its highest level in three decades as investors prepared for the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting this week. The BOJ is widely expected to raise its policy rate to 1.25% on Friday, the highest since April 1995, as the central bank contends with persistent upside risks to prices. Markets are also watching for BOJ guidance on the possibility of another rate hike later this year. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has repeatedly called on the BOJ to tighten policy more aggressively to prevent excessive yen weakness. Oil prices also extended their gains after Saudi Arabia shut down the critical East-West pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, adding to inflation concerns. Japan’s economy depends heavily on oil imports from the Middle East, leaving it particularly exposed to sharp swings in energy prices.

Japan 10-Year Yield Holds Firm Ahead of BOJ

Indonesian shares slipped 78 points, or 1.2%, to 6,461 in early Monday trade, extending losses for a fourth session to a two-week low. Sentiment weakened as U.S. futures fell amid surging oil prices after Saudi Arabia shut a key pipeline following drone attacks and postponed talks with Gulf states. Hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation also reinforced the case for higher rates. In China, Indonesia’s top trading partner, August activity data due Tuesday will cover industrial output, retail sales, and the surveyed unemployment. All major sectors retreated, led by basic materials, energy, infrastructure, and transport. Still, losses were partly capped by policy efforts to shore up confidence, including President Prabowo’s pledge to rein in the budget deficit and regulators’ moves to address MSCI’s transparency concerns ahead of its November review. Notable laggards included Merdeka Copper Gold (-4.9%), Darma Henwa (-2.9%), Aneka Tambang (-2.8%), and Barito Pacific (-2.1%).

Indonesian Stocks Fall Sharply to Kick Off Week

The Japanese yen eased toward 154 per dollar on Monday but remained close to its highest levels since February, supported by expectations for more aggressive policy tightening by the Bank of Japan, the unwinding of carry trades and signs of increased asset repatriation by domestic investors. The BOJ is widely expected to raise its policy rate to 1.25% on Friday, its highest level since April 1995, as the central bank addresses persistent upside risks to prices. Markets are also watching for BOJ guidance on the possibility of another rate hike later this year. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has repeatedly urged the BOJ to pursue more aggressive policy tightening to prevent excessive yen weakness. Investors also monitored developments in the Middle East as oil prices surged again following Saudi Arabia’s shutdown of the critical East-West pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.

Yen Holds Near 7-Month High

Corn futures traded around $5.3 per bushel, remaining near their highest level since mid-2023 as supply risks in the Black Sea region continued to support prices, while traders weighed the USDA’s latest supply-and-demand report. The September USDA report cut the US 2026/27 corn yield forecast to 178.5 bushels per acre from 180.7, lowered production to 15.8 billion bushels from 16.013 billion, and reduced ending stocks to 1.567 billion bushels from 1.653 billion. The lower forecasts reflected expectations for a smaller US harvest following hot summer weather and concerns over crop conditions. Meanwhile, continued Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports and logistics are also threatening grain flows, forcing Ukraine to reroute more exports through the Danube. This is helping Argentina capture additional demand, with its corn exports expected to reach a record 10 million metric tons in August–September, partly filling the gap left by disrupted Ukrainian supplies.

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