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Canada BoC Survey of Consumer Expectations

The Mexican peso weakened to near 18.7 per USD from the three-week high of 18.5 touched on November 9th amid prospects of a narrower US-Mexico interest-rate differential. Hotter-than-expected US inflation in October reinforced expectations of further Federal Reserve hikes. A narrower rate differential would pressure the peso by reducing carry trade. Still, recent data limits the room for looser policy by Banxico. Annual inflation rose to 3.75% from 3.45% in September, above forecasts of 3.65%, moving further above Banxico’s 3% target. Core inflation edged up to 3.80% from 3.75%, broadly in line with forecasts of 3.78%. The central bank unexpectedly cut its benchmark rate to 6.25% at its latest meeting and revised forward guidance, signaling rates would remain at the new level for an “extended period.” Meanwhile, the Democratic Party’s victory in the US midterm elections could soften trade pressures on Mexican growth.

Mexican Peso Slips on Narrowing US-Mexico Rate Spread Bets

Norway’s adjusted consumer confidence indicator fell to -22.5 in the fourth quarter of 2026, down from a revised -19.1 in the previous quarter, signalling a further deterioration in household sentiment. The expectations barometer points to a marked shift in consumers’ outlook for their personal finances, with pessimism increasingly replacing optimism. While a majority of households previously expected their financial situation to improve over the coming year, the latest survey shows that more now anticipate a deterioration. The rise in pessimism is broad-based, spanning all demographic groups, including gender, age, education, income and geographical location. Notably, households in age groups traditionally carrying the highest levels of debt are among the most pessimistic.

Norway Consumer Confidence Falls in Q4

South Africa’s 10-year government bond yield rose above 8.50%, up from recent three-month lows, tracking US peers. Hotter-than-expected US inflation data and hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller fueled concerns over further monetary tightening. Meanwhile, oil prices extended their decline amid growing optimism over a potential US-Iran peace agreement, improving the domestic inflation outlook. As a net oil importer, South Africa is also expected to benefit from November’s fuel levy relief, helping lower costs for households and businesses. However, the sustainability of this relief will depend largely on international oil price movements in the coming months. Meanwhile, the results of last week's local elections showed that the ruling party ANC trailed its rivals in most of South Africa's major metropolitan areas. The setback has weakened its bargaining position in the upcoming coalition talks, reducing its influence over the formation of city governments.

South Africa 10-Year Bond Yield Rise From 3-Month Lows

The Swiss 10-year government bond yield rose above 0.45%, recovering from its lowest level in two months and tracking US Treasury yields higher as stronger-than-expected US inflation lifted expectations of another Fed rate hike. In Switzerland, however, SNB Chairman Schlegel said there were no signs of a broadening in price pressures and that the central bank had fulfilled its mandate of maintaining price stability over the medium term. Although inflation reached a three-year high in October amid a weaker franc and rising energy costs, energy accounts for only a small share of the Swiss CPI basket. A decline in oil prices amid expectations of a diplomatic resolution to the conflict in the Middle East has also offered some relief. The SNB is expected to leave rates unchanged at 0% at its meeting next month. While markets anticipate a hike in early 2027, economists expect the first increase only in late 2027.

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