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Brazil’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 14.13% in late September after August labor data. Brazil created 165,827 formal jobs, above forecasts of 95,700 and up from 58,568 in July, the highest result since March. Unemployment stood at 5.3% in the rolling quarter ended in August, unchanged from the previous quarter and matching expectations. Despite strong payrolls, the marginal reading remains more moderate on a seasonally adjusted basis, while job creation remains weaker than in 2024 and early 2025. The data is consistent with gradual labor-market cooling and expectations for GDP to be near flat in 3Q26, without an abrupt deterioration. As such, it did not dent expectations for continued Selic easing. The move also came as new polls reinforced expectations for a tight presidential race few days ahead of the first round.

Brazil 10-Year Yield Drops on Labor Market Cooling Signs

The Ibovespa gained 0.5% to close at 183,828 on Tuesday, as signs of gradual cooling in the labor market supported credit-sensitive sectors. Brazil created 165,827 formal jobs in August, above forecasts of 95,700 and up from 58,568 in July, marking the highest result since March. Unemployment stood at 5.3% in the rolling quarter ended in August, matching expectations. Despite the strong payrolls figure, the data remains consistent with a scenario of gradual labor-market cooling, in line with expectations for GDP to be near flat in 3Q26. Yields moved lower as the data did not dent expectations for a continuation of the Selic easing cycle. Financials rose, with BB up 2.6% and Itaú gaining 1.4%. Utilities also advanced, with Axia up 0.7%. Petrobras rose 0.8% despite lower oil prices. Vale shed 2.2% as iron ore prices fell, while CSN Mineração lost 5.7% after announcing a temporary reduction in low-grade iron ore production. Steelmakers fell, CSN sank 9.8%.

Ibovespa Rises as Labor Market Shows Signs of Cooling

The Dow Jones Index dropped 131 points or 0.25 percent on Tuesday to close at 51351 points. Losses were led by Apple (-2.66%), Walmart (-1.79%) and J&J (-1.57%). Offsetting the fall, top gainers were Boeing (1.97%), Amgen (1.32%) and Caterpillar (0.86%).

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Brazil 10-Year Yield Drops on Labor Market Cooling Signs

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