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Uruguay’s central bank raised its monetary policy rate by 25 bps to 6.0%, aiming to keep inflation expectations anchored and bring inflation toward the 4.5% target over the two-year monetary policy horizon. The bank said international geopolitical tensions continue to push up energy prices and, indirectly, those of other tradable goods, contributing to upward revisions in inflation expectations. Against this backdrop, rates at major central banks and in international financial markets have also moved higher. Domestically, the economy is showing signs of resilience after sector-specific and weather-related shocks temporarily affected activity. The bank said inflation remains on a convergent path toward the target as these temporary effects fade, but warned that persistent geopolitical and climate-related shocks pose significant risks to prices and inflation expectations.

Uruguay Central Bank Hikes Policy Rate

The Ibovespa rose 0.9% to close at 206,220 on Thursday ahead of the first Datafolha poll for the presidential runoff, due shortly after the close. A PoderData/Aya poll showed Senator Flávio Bolsonaro with 53% of valid votes, against 47% for incumbent Lula. In Sunday’s first-round election, Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula, contrary to most polls, pushing the index to an all-time high on Monday, led by financial stocks. Markets view the senator as more fiscally restrictive amid elevated domestic yields and weak business activity. His economic team is considering spending cuts equivalent to around 2% of GDP. Financials traded mixed, with B3 gaining 2% and Bradesco falling 1.3%. Petrobras followed the sharp rise in international oil prices, gaining 2.1%. Retail stocks also supported the index, with Magazine Luiza jumping 5.6%. Meanwhile, Vale extended its losing streak to four sessions, falling 1.6% as iron ore prices hit an 18-month low in China.

Ibovespa Gains Ahead of Election Runoff Poll

The S&P/TSX Composite Index edged 0.3% higher on Thursday, supported by gains in the energy and related industrial services sectors. Oil prices surged throughout the session on reports that the US is planning new strikes against Iran, risking the recent rebound in Middle Eastern oil exports. Energy producers gained, with Canadian Natural up 3%, Cenovus adding 2.5%, Suncor rising 3.7% and Imperial Oil advancing 2.6%. Enbridge rose 1.1% and TC Energy gained 1.6%. Mining shares picked up as gold prices firmed, with Agnico Eagle rising 1.7%, Barrick up 1.8% and WPM adding 0.9%. Global yields remained elevated amid intensifying inflationary pressures from high oil and fuel prices and a hawkish US Federal Reserve backdrop. Financials posted losses, with RBC losing 0.7%, BMO down 1%, CIBC shedding 0.6% and National Bank falling 1.7%. The tech sector tracked losses on Wall Street, with Shopify down 1%.

TSX Edges Higher as Energy Stocks Rally

The Dow Jones Index rose 52 points or 0.10 percent on Thursday to close at 51232 points. Leading the gains are Home Depot (3.38%), Chevron (3.11%) and IBM (2.79%). Top losers were Nvidia (-2.90%), Amazon (-2.18%) and Cisco Systems (-2.10%).

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Japan Household Spending MoM

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