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The Indonesian rupiah edged lower on Monday, hovering near IDR 17,820 per U.S. dollar after firming to around IDR 17,780 in the prior session. Sentiment was weighed by fresh data showing consumer sentiment fell for a third straight month to a 15-month low in July, amid sustained concerns over current economic conditions and the job outlook. Caution also prevailed ahead of June retail sales data due Tuesday, after sales posted their steepest drop in three years in May due to elevated inflation and higher non-subsidised fuel prices. Still, losses were limited as the U.S. dollar index eased after weaker-than-expected U.S. job data eased bets of further tightening. Locally, foreign investors returned to Indonesian government bonds and equities in July, ending months of sustained selling and providing some support for the rupiah. Traders also remained focused on President Prabowo Subianto’s choice of the next Bank Indonesia governor following Perry Warjiyo’s abrupt departure last month.

Rupiah Softens After Persistent Decline in Consumer Confidence

China’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 1.70% on Monday, returning to its lowest level since August 2025, as softer inflation data reinforced expectations that Beijing has greater flexibility to provide additional policy support in the remainder of the year. Annual consumer inflation eased to a six-month low of 0.5% in July, reflecting further declines in food prices and slower growth in non-food costs. Producer prices also slowed to 3.5% from 4.1%, marking its first deceleration since turning positive in March following the oil-price surge linked to tensions in the Middle East. At a recent meeting, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee pledged more proactive and effective macroeconomic policies, faster deployment of fiscal funds and bond proceeds, and continued support for equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins. It also stressed boosting domestic demand amid weak consumer spending, despite strong exports and industrial activity.

China 10Y Yield Returns to 1-Year Low

Soybean futures held around $11.5 per bushel, staying near five-week lows as traders adjusted positions ahead of the USDA’s upcoming crop report this week. The report will include the first survey-based estimate of 2026 US soybean yields and updated harvested acreage, potentially reshaping expectations for crop size and supplies. Meanwhile, weather has become less supportive, as warmer and drier conditions across parts of the Midwest raised concerns over soybean pod filling during August, adding uncertainty around US yields. While the USDA recently confirmed a private sale of 132,000 metric tons of US soybeans to China for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year, the purchase did little to offset the bearish supply outlook. Traders now continued to monitor developments in the Black Sea region, where the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war threatened grain export routes, although expectations for another large harvest from the region continued to weigh on prices.

Soybeans Hold Near Multi-Week Lows

Motorbike sales in Indonesia grew 8.3% year-on-year to 636,030 units in July 2026, after a 1.1% rise in the previous month. The number was the largest since October 2014, amid easing price pressures in July. For the first seven months of the year, motorbike sales were 2.0% higher than in the same period last year, reaching 3.77 million units. The Association of Indonesian Motorcycle Industry (AISI) expects sales to remain relatively stable at around 6.4 million to 6.7 million units this year. Last year, motorbike sales climbed 1.3% to 6.4 million units, within the target range of 6.4 million to 6.7 million units set by AISI. However, the growth rate was slightly slower than the 1.5% increase recorded in 2024. On a monthly basis, motorbike sales surged 23.0% in July, accelerating sharply from 7.5% growth in June.

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