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The offshore yuan steadied around 7.11 per dollar on Thursday, as China signaled reduced urgency for further monetary policy easing amid persistent domestic and external headwinds. The one-year Loan Prime Rate, the benchmark for most corporate and household lending, was kept unchanged at 3%, while the five-year LPR, which serves as the key reference for mortgages, remained at 3.5% after a 10 bps cut in May 2025. This decision came after the central bank earlier in the month opted to leave the seven-day reverse repo rate unchanged, reinforcing expectations of a more cautious policy stance. Recent economic data showed that fixed-asset investment posted a notable contraction, industrial production and retail sales continued to lost momentum and an unexpected decline in exports further deepened worries about China's growth outlook. Investors now turn their attention to next week’s PMI releases for additional insight into the country’s economic health.

Offshore Yuan Steady After PBOC Decision

Indonesia posted a current account surplus of USD 4.0 billion in Q3 2025 (1.1% of GDP), shifting from a USD 2.0 billion gap in Q3 2024. This marked the country’s first current account surplus since Q1 2023 and its largest since Q3 2022, as the trade surplus surged to USD 16.1 billion, up from USD 9.2 billion, supported by an increase in the non-oil trade surplus, while the services gap narrowed due to higher foreign investor activity. The secondary income surplus also increased to USD 1.7 billion, from USD 1.5 billion. Meanwhile, the primary income deficit widened slightly to USD 9.4 billion, compared with USD 8.5 billion a year earlier, while the services account deficit narrowed to USD 4.3 billion from USD 4.2 billion. Last year, the current account deficit widened significantly to USD 8.68 billion, up from USD 2.04 billion in 2023, driven by a decline in the trade surplus amid subdued foreign demand.

Indonesia Posts Current Account Surplus for 1st Time in 2-1/2 Years

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield climbed above 1.8% on Thursday, reaching its highest levels since 2008 as investors braced for the announcement of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s stimulus package, which is expected to exceed 20 trillion yen. Lawmakers from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party even proposed a supplementary budget topping 25 trillion yen to fund the plan, well above last year’s 13.9 trillion yen extra budget. The massive spending plan has raised concerns about Japan’s fiscal health, fueling a 'Sell Japan' trade that pushed the yen and bond prices lower, though equities held firm as Nvidia’s strong earnings eased worries about an AI bubble. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda told the prime minister that the central bank is gradually raising rates to steer inflation toward its 2% target while supporting sustainable growth.

Japan 10Y Yield Climbs Higher on Fiscal Worries

The annual inflation rate in East Timor stood at 0.9% in October 2025, unchanged from the previous month. Prices edged lower for food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.8% vs 2% in September) and housing (1.2% vs 1.3%). Moreover, deflation softened for transport (-0.7% vs -0.8%) and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (-3.1% vs -3.5%), and it remained unchanged for clothing and footwear (0%), health (0%), education (0.4%), and communication (-0.2%). Meanwhile, costs increased at a faster pace for both furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance (1.4% vs 0.8%) and recreation and culture (0.5% vs 0.4%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.2% in October 2025, reversing a 0.1% rise in the previous month.

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