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European stocks closed sharply higher on Tuesday, tracking the strong momentum for global equities as geopolitical conflict in the Middle East showed signs of de-escalation and key energy commodities trimmed their surge. The STOXX 50 surged 1.5% to close at 5,297 and the pan-European STOXX 600 rose 1.1% to 541. Oil and LNG tankers continued to navigate through the Strait of Hormuz to extend the sharp decline in energy prices, softening the inflation outlook for energy importers in Europe. Meanwhile, investors turned their attention to the NATO summit kicking off today in The Hague, where leaders are expected to pledge more security spending and add to the guidance increases for defense companies, which are among the leaders of gains in European equity markets this year. Banks and tech led the gains, with UniCredit, ASML, and Adyen all jumping more than 3%.

European Stocks Close Sharply Higher

The CAC 40 index rose 1.0%, at close to 7,615 on Tuesday, resuming growth after last week's swings, boosted by improved global sentiment following the confirmation of a US-mediated ceasefire between Iran and Israel. The truce, although fragile, reduced fears of a wider regional conflict in the Middle East and pushed down oil prices, easing inflationary pressures in Europe and relieving some pressure on the ECB to maintain a restrictive monetary policy. Optimism was also fueled by the NATO summit in The Hague, where members pledged to boost defense spending and support for Ukraine. Investors also focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, where he reiterated a cautious and hawkish stance, saying any rate cut would depend on incoming data, and citing tariff-related inflation concerns. On the corporate front, gains were broad-based, led by Accor (+6.4%), Saint-Gobain (+4.1%), and Teleperformance (+4.1%), while energy stocks such as TotalEnergies (-3.2%) fell on lower oil prices.

French Stocks Rise on Ceasefire Easing Tensions

The FTSE 100 closed flat, underperforming European peers as declines in oil and gold stocks weighed. Oil giants BP and Shell dropped 4.8% and 3.7%, respectively, as crude prices slid following President Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which reduced geopolitical risk but remains fragile. Gold miners like Endeavour and Fresnillo also fell, losing over 6% and 2%, as demand for haven assets declined. Defense firm BAE Systems shed over 4%, reversing recent gains from heightened geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, investor bets on interest rate cuts rose after Fed Chair Powell signaled cuts could come sooner if inflation or the labor market weaken. Also, BoE Gov Bailey and Deputy Gov Ramsden reinforced expectations for a UK rate-cutting path. Easing oil prices further soothed inflation concerns. On the upside, airline stocks soared, with EasyJet and IAG gaining more than 6%, after Gulf states like Qatar and the UAE reopened their airspace and resumed flights.

FTSE 100 Little Changed on Tuesday

The South African rand appreciated further to around 17.8 per USD, a level not seen since June 12, benefiting from a weakening dollar and an improving risk sentiment amid signs of de-escalation in Middle East tensions. This helped to ease inflation fears and supported expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, with Fed Chair Powell keeping the possibility of a July cut on the table. Domestically, the South African Reserve Bank, in its latest biannual Financial Stability Review published on June 19, noted that growing geopolitical upheaval and global policy uncertainty are among the biggest risks facing the country's financial sector. However, Governor Lesetja Kganyago said South Africa's financial system was so far demonstrating a high degree of resilience in response to global shocks.

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