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Arabica coffee futures hovered around $3.95 per pound, consolidating below two-month highs of nearly $4.15 hit on April 28, as the ongoing harvest in Brazil takes center stage amid tight stock levels. State-owned Conab has revised Brazil’s 2025 coffee harvest forecast, now expecting a 2.7% increase to 55.7 million 60 kg bags, up from an earlier estimate of a 4.4% decline to 51.8 million bags. This new projection is also 2.7% higher than the 2024 crop and marks an all-time high for an "off-year" in the biennial arabica coffee cycle.

Arabica Coffee Futures Below $4

The dollar index edged lower to around 100 on Friday, after two straight sessions of gains, as traders looked ahead to US-China trade talks scheduled for the weekend. President Trump expressed optimism, saying he expects the negotiations to yield tangible progress. Meanwhile, the newly announced US-UK trade deal provided some relief to investors hoping for a de-escalation in global trade tensions. However, the deal appears limited in scope, with few details released so far, and a 10% tariff on imports from the UK remains in place. For the week, the greenback is on track to rise about 0.6%, supported by the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave the fed funds rate unchanged, while signaling no urgency to cut rates and highlighting increased risks to both inflation and unemployment.

Dollar On Track to End the Week Higher

China's current account surplus widened to a new record of USD 165.6 billion in the first quarter of 2025, up from USD 47.2 billion in the same period of the previous year. The goods surplus climbed to USD 237.6 billion from USD 125.1 billion a year ago, as exports climbed 9.4% to USD 825.9 billion and imports fell 6.6% to USD 588.3 billion. In addition, the services deficit narrowed to USD 59.3 billion from USD 61.3 billion and the primary income gap declined to USD 15.4 billion from USD 20.1 billion. The secondary income surplus was little-changed at USD 2.7 billion, compared with last year's USD 3.5 billion.

China Current Account Surplus Hit New Record

Croatia’s trade deficit remained relatively stable in March 2025 compared to the same month last year, standing at EUR 1.7 billion, according to preliminary data. Considering January to March, the country’s trade deficit rose slightly to EUR 4.6 billion from EUR 4.3 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year. Exports grew 8.6% year-on-year to EUR 6.1 billion, driven by higher sales to non-EU member states (9.8%) and the EU (8%). Meanwhile, imports rose 7.6% to EUR 10.7 billion, amid increased purchases from non-EU member states (28.5%) and the EU (2.5%).

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