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Australia’s 10-year government bond yield edged up to 4.14% on Wednesday but remained near a two-month low reached in the previous session, as weaker-than expected retail sales data solidified wagers for a near-term rate cut. Australia’s retail sales grew by 0.2% month-on-month in May, after a flat reading in April but fell short of forecasts for a 0.4% rise. This soft retail print added to a string of subdued economic indicators, including sluggish Q1 GDP growth and a tame inflation reading for May, which prompted many economists to bring forward their rate cut expectations to July from August. Traders now see a 97% chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut its cash rate of 3.85% by 25bps at its July 8 meeting, with rates seen to decline further to a floor of 2.85%—below most estimates of the neutral rate.

Australia 10-Year Yield Hovers Near 2-Month Low

The South Korean won fell to around 1,362 per dollar on Wednesday, despite hotter-than-expected inflation data. June inflation came in at 2.2% year-over-year, from 1.9% in May, influencing expectations around the Bank of Korea’s policy stance. The unexpected pickup in consumer prices has prompted speculation that the Bank of Korea may delay any rate cuts, as persistent inflation could require a more cautious stance even amid slowing growth. This uncertainty has added to domestic pressures on the currency. While global trade tensions and modest dollar strength remain factors, the recent weakness in the won appears to reflect growing domestic concerns, particularly around inflation and monetary policy outlook.

South Korean Won Weakens Amid Inflation Pressures

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield edged up to around 1.42% on Wednesday, rebounding from a seven-week low in the previous session as investors weighed renewed trade tensions and domestic economic signals. The move came after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 35% tariff on Japanese imports, aiming to pressure Tokyo into trade concessions. Trump described negotiations with Japan as “really hard,” again criticizing the country’s reluctance to accept cars and rice from the US. The remarks come ahead of a key deadline, with markets closely watching whether Japan can secure a trade deal with Washington before a 24% reciprocal tariff is reinstated next week. Meanwhile, domestic data released earlier this week showed an unexpected improvement in business sentiment among large manufacturers in the second quarter, suggesting resilience in the face of escalating external pressures.

Japan 10-Year Yield Rises Despite Tariff Threats

Hong Kong stocks increased 128 points or 0.5% to 24,202 in early Wednesday trade, snapping a three-session losing streak as markets reopened after Tuesday’s holiday. Sentiment was lifted by an unexpected rise in China’s manufacturing activity in June, according to a private survey, along with fresh policy signals from Beijing. President Xi Jinping vowed to tighten oversight of aggressive price-cutting practices to help combat deflation risks. However, upside was capped after U.S. President Trump ruled out delaying his self-imposed July 9 deadline for raising tariffs and renewed threats to cut off trade talks and impose duties on multiple countries. Gains were broad-based, led by property and financial sectors. Notable movers included Galaxy Entertainment (7.3%), Sands China (7.2%), Henderson Land Dev. (4.2%), and Mixue Group (3.5%). In contrast, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell, tracking weakness in U.S. tech stocks after investors rotated out of the sector to start H2 of 2025.

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