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The Turkish lira has broken a fresh record low of 18.86 per USD in February and weakened nearly 1% since the start of the year as political uncertainty mounted ahead of the presidential election in May, which could impact the country's monetary policy. The lira lost more than 40% against the greenback and became the second-worst performer in emerging markets in 2022, after a 77% plunge in 2021, as the central bank proceeded with its unorthodox rate-cutting policy against a backdrop of soaring prices and trade imbalances. TCMB slashed its key rate by 1000 bps since September 2021, as demanded by President Erdogan to stimulate growth in industry and exports. However, the central bank paused the rate-cut cycle in December and has kept the one-week repo rate unchanged at 9% since, saying the current policy rate was sufficient and disinflation was about to start. The annual inflation rate fell for a third consecutive month to 57.7% in January, the lowest level since February 2022.

Turkish Lira Holds at Record-Low

Rubber futures were trading around 140 USD cents /kg, not far from a five-month peak of 147 USD cents /kg touched on January 25th, on prospects of a demand recovery fuelled by China's economic reopening. The Chinese manufacturing PMI in January increased to 50.1 from 47.0 in the prior month, while auto sales rebounded almost 10% MoM in December. Adding to the bullish outlook, the International Rubber Consortium said output might not increase "at a large scale" in the coming months by the three major producing countries: Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia. The benchmark is now up more than 20% from an over two-year low of roughly 115 USD cents /kg touched on October 25th, 2022.

Rubber Upward Trend Set to Continue

Aluminum futures were trading around 2,500 USD/T, easing from a seven-month peak of 2,660 USD/T touched on January 25th, as fears of a global economic slowdown and rising output from China prompted investors to unwind some long positions. China's annual aluminum production in 2022 increased by 4.5% from a year earlier to a record high of 40.21 million tonnes thanks to newly launched capacity and softened power supply constraints. Still, fundamentals in the aluminum complex continued to be supported by prospects of more robust demand and historically low global inventories. China has taken significant steps to boost its economy and end the strict coronavirus-induced regime, lifting the outlook for metal demand and subduing some global recession concerns. On top of that, last year's output cuts at key European smelters, including Alcoa's San Ciprian smelter and Hydro's plant in Slovakia, offered prices a solid floor.

Aluminum Eases from Multi-Month Peak

Sales of new cars and light commercial vehicles in Russia decreased by 63.1 percent from a year earlier to 32,499 units in January 2023, the 19th consecutive month of decline. The country's auto industry has been hit hard following the imposition of Western sanctions last year due to the war in Ukraine. The AEB has said it expects car sales to recover by just 12 percent during 2023, after a slump of 58.8 percent in 2022, as the industry will probably remain under pressure and the decline in real wages will likely hit demand. Russia's car production slumped 67 percent last year to just 450,000 passenger cars, the largest fall since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

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12:35 Feb 6

Turkish Lira Holds at Record-Low

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Rubber Upward Trend Set to Continue

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Aluminum Eases from Multi-Month Peak

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Russia Car Sales Slump at Start of 2023

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