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U.S. stocks fell on Friday as investors weighed the Federal Reserve’s latest policy update against ongoing trade tensions and recession fears. The S&P 500 dropped 1.1%, even as it attempted to snap a four-week losing streak, while the Dow Jones shed nearly 400 points, or 1%, and the Nasdaq declined 1.3%. Earlier this week, the Fed held interest rates steady but reaffirmed its forecast for two rate cuts this year, even as it raised its inflation outlook and lowered economic growth projections. Investors are also bracing for President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, set to take effect in April. Among individual stocks, FedEx plunged over 10% after slashing its full-year guidance, citing “continued weakness and uncertainty” in the economy. Nike dropped nearly 9% after warning of a sales decline this quarter, while Danaher rose 0.3% following an upgrade to "buy" from Goldman Sachs.

US Stocks Slip on Friday

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell to 4.2% on Friday, approaching the lowest in over two weeks as markets continued to assess risks of an economic slowdown and how the Federal Reserve would react. The Fed held its rates unchanged this week but its dot-plot indicated that policymakers still foresee two 25bps rate cuts this year amid lower growth and higher unemployment. As a result, traders began to price in three rate cuts by the Fed this year, up from prior expectations of just two cuts before the decision. This shift occurred despite projections for higher inflation, although Chairman Powell emphasized that policymakers view the inflationary impact of tariffs as temporary. Bonds were also supported by the Fed slowing its balance sheet runoff to address signs of lower underlying liquidity. The Fed's Treasury holding will be reduced by $5 billion per month instead of $20 billion, while the $35 billion runoff for MBSs are unchanged.

US 10-Year Yield Falls to 4.2%

The MOEX Russia Index rose to 3,200 in March, not far from the nine-month high of 3,326 touched in late February, supported by expectations that the CBR may have ended its tightening cycle while markets continued to assess the magnitude of sanction relief by the US. The Russian central bank held it policy rate unchanged and struck a slightly more optimistic tone in the economy's disinflation process while signaling that it is less likely that another rate hike will be needed. In the meantime, US President Trump agreed to fewer concessions by President Putin for the partial ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The US stance was consistent with its friendlier rhetoric towards the Kremlin with the introduction of the new US Presidential administration, with US sanctions on Russia's oil tanker fleet not being imposed in recent weeks as satellite data showed tankers loading oil in Russian docks. Rosneft and Lukoil both rebounded, and Sberbank was near pre-Ukraine war highs.

Russian Stocks Approach 9-Month High

Retail sales in Canada are expected to fall by 0.4% from the previous month in February of 2025, according to preliminary estimates. That is due to follow a 0.6% decline in January to C$69.4 billion, revised earlier from the preliminary estimate of a 0.4% decline, and thus marking back-to-back declines in retail sales for the first time since June 2024.

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