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Cotton futures traded around 80 cents per pound, near its lowest level in two months, amid concerns over the weather and its impact on crops. Heavy rainfall across Texas, a key US cotton-growing region, raised concerns over crop quality, particularly where bolls had already opened. However, no further rain is forecast this week, limiting the upside for prices. Providing an offsetting pressure, the US harvest is quickly progressing, with 17% of the crop harvested compared with the historical average of 15%, while Texas and Arizona are running well ahead of their normal pace, according to the latest USDA crop progress report. Adding to the bearish pressure is an intensifying competition in global markets. Brazil exported a record 3.37 million tonnes between August 2025 and July 2026, an increase of 19% from the previous marketing year. US exports reached approximately 2.61 million tonnes over the same period.

Cotton Near Two-Month Low

The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.3% on Monday, near its highest level since March 2022 as investors assessed fresh economic data and prepared for the release of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes. The latest ISM report showed that services-sector activity continued to expand, with the PMI at 54.9 in September, slightly below August but broadly in line with expectations. At the same time, cost pressures intensified, highlighting renewed inflation risks despite the moderation in business activity. Bond markets have faced persistent selling pressure in recent weeks, although Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report pushed yields lower and reduced expectations of another near-term Fed rate increase. Attention is now turning to Wednesday’s meeting minutes for further clues on the central bank’s policy outlook. Markets currently see an approximately 82% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its next meeting.

US 10-Year Yield Rises Ahead Fed Minutes

The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, dropped about 2.5% to its lowest since August 26 at 3,070 points on Monday, halting two successive sessions of gains. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes, including iron ore and coal, also snapped a two-day winning streak, slipping 4.2% to its lowest since August 25 at 4,833 points; and the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000 to 70,000 tons of coal or grain, fell 0.3% to 2,364 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index went up by 0.1% to 1,790 points.

Baltic Dry Index Falls to Over 1-Month Low

The ISM Services PMI fell to 54.9 in September 2026 from 55.4 in August, compared with expectations of 55. The index nevertheless remained in expansion territory for a 27th consecutive month, indicating continued growth in the US services sector. Business activity eased more noticeably, with the Business Activity Index dropping to 56.5 from 61.7, while new orders also moderated to 59.8. Employment improved, moving back above the 50 threshold to 50.1 after two months of contraction. Supplier deliveries slowed, with the corresponding index rising to 53.2, while backlogs strengthened to 56.6, their highest level since July 2022. Price pressures remained a major concern, with the Prices Index climbing to 74, its highest since July 2022 and above 70 for the sixth time in seven months. Export orders weakened sharply, falling below 50 for the first time in eight months. Tariffs, fuel costs and supply-chain constraints remained key concerns for businesses.

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