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The Indian rupee weakened to 95.7 per dollar, retreating from recent gains to its lowest level in over four weeks, as renewed tensions in the Middle East sent crude oil prices sharply higher. Sentiment deteriorated amid renewed concerns over India's trade balance after Iran expanded its attacks to Qatar and the UAE following fresh US strikes on Iran. US President Donald Trump declared that the ceasefire was over, fueling fears of further supply disruptions. Brent crude surged more than 4% to $79.28 per barrel, increasing pressure on the rupee. Investors also monitored the Reserve Bank of India's response, with market participants expecting the central bank to continue supporting the currency through dollar sales as higher oil prices threaten to fuel inflation. Meanwhile, traders closely watched the impact of rising oil-driven inflation concerns on US Treasury yields as markets assessed the implications of the latest strikes and counter-strikes on global energy supplies.

Rupee Falls to Over Four-Week Low

SET 50 increased to 1066.00 Index Points, the highest since January 2020. Over the past 4 weeks, Thailand SET 50 Index gained 3.75%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 43.05%.

Stocks in Thailand Hit 6-1/2-year High

The offshore yuan weakened to around 6.78 per dollar on Monday, retreating from a near three-week high reached in the previous session as escalating tensions in the Middle East boosted demand for safe-haven assets. The US dollar strengthened as surging oil prices revived expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to keep monetary policy tighter for longer, following a weekend of intensified clashes between the US and Iran and continued uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the yuan's losses were partly tempered by the People's Bank of China's midpoint fixing of 6.7972 per dollar, its strongest since February 10, 2023, although it was set 122 pips weaker than Reuters' estimate. Investors are now awaiting a raft of key Chinese economic data due later this week, including trade figures, Q2 GDP, industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment data.

Offshore Yuan Slips on Stronger Dollar

Copper futures fell to around $6.16 per pound, giving back some of last week’s gains as escalating tensions in the Middle East kept inflationary pressures and interest-rate hike expectations in focus, clouding the demand outlook for industrial metals. The US carried out its fourth strike in a week against Iran on Sunday in retaliation for an Iranian attack on a Cyprus-flagged container ship. Tehran declared that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed "until further notice," though the claim was dismissed by the US Central Command. Rising oil prices revived concerns over inflation and tighter monetary policy, with markets expecting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at least once before the end of the year. Investors are now awaiting key US inflation data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s appearance before the US Congress this week. Copper, widely regarded as a barometer of global economic growth, remained highly sensitive to changes in the economic and monetary policy outlook.

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