Recently, UK GDP data was published for the Q1 which was lower at -1.6% compared to the analyst’s consensus of -1.5%, and previous quarter being at 1.3%. This caused GBP to slide down for the start of July.

Looking from a technical standpoint, we will evaluate each time frame.

- Market structure: We are at a strong swing support which has not been tested previously. A bounce from this level is considerable.

- Pattern: Ascending triangle pattern has been formed with ascending trend line being tested at 1.3750 and rejecting it.

- Retracement: We are at a golden zone of retracement levels of 75- 78.6, along with the confluence of support level

- EMA'S: The death cross of EMA 50 and EMA 200 has been triggered. This means, the trend is now bullish till we touch the monthly EMA 200, as mentioned earlier. Not to forget, a test for the EMA 50 still remains which we might get sooner or later. We will look for it in further analysis.

- RSI/CCI: RSI is at 51 level and CCI as 30 level. Enough room for market to tap the over-bought market conditions for RSI at 75 and CCI at 200.

- Market structure: The structure on daily is bearish for now, unless we clear the resistance at $1.3900. After this resistance breached, we have formed a bullish structure.

- Pattern: Ascending triangle pattern has been formed with ascending trend line being tested at 1.3750 and rejecting it, same as weekly. Although, we might be piercing the descending trend line. Validation will be concentrated when candles have opened and closed above the trend line.

- Retracement: We are at a golden level of retracement zone of 75- 78.6, with the confluence of support level, same as weekly.

- EMA'S: EMA 200 has been indicating bull pressure, whereas EMA 50 is above market conditions right now. We can expect market to test the EMA 50 on the upper side before further deciding its farther move up, or rejection at the EMA 50.

- RSI/CCI: We have a RSI bull divergence, which is minutely above our over-sold levels at 25 and below. Regardless, we do see a minor divergence formed. On CCI, we also have a minor divergence along with the descending trend line incoming, for the breakout.

GBPUSD bull run till $1.3950

Jul 09 2021

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