Bitcoin, is one the solid crypto currencies in the blockchain arena. It is considered to be the digital Gold. The only challenge most people face is trading it, as the volatility is parabolic and there is no regulatory body to oversee its movement, unlike global currencies. Therefore, we should look for swing trading instead of intra-day. For swing and longer holding, we will look at the daily time frame from a technical standpoint.

- Market structure: Currently the market structure on the Bitcoin is bearish. After the bearish leg, BTC/USDT has started to range in the $42,500 and $29,000 price levels. When market ranges in a bearish momentum, usually, its accumulating orders for a further leg down. If the range is broken towards the downside, the first target is $22,000. Until it clears in either of the direction, it’s risky to trade BTC.

- Trendline: Descending trend line failed to breach with bullish strength. Also, there were no anchoring candles- opening and closing- above the trend line. Hence, the trendline is considered invalidated at this point.

- Retracement: In a range bound market, it’s challenging to determine a retracement level.

- EMA'S: EMA 50 and 200 is above the current price in the market. Right now, we are on the verge of witnessing the death cross of both the EMA’s on the Daily time frame, which will trigger exponential selling pressure in BTC. Once the death cross is formed, we will resort to our bearish bias.

- RSI/CCI: RSI and CCI both infer the bearish levels, resting at 44 and -33 concurrently. We do not see a bullish divergence forming right now which would push the BTC up for a bull leg.

To trade BTC/USDT, one needs to be sure of parabolic moves. Its risky to trade scalp or intraday on Cryptocurrencies for now. For swing trade perspective, we will wait for market to break in either of the direction. But, given the fundamental scenario of the whole Cryptocurrency market, we are bearish on it till $22,000; until it breaks the range to the upside, then our bias will be changed.

Bitcoin is range bound

Jul 10 2021