AUDUSD on the weekly timeframe - if we take it as a bearish correction of higher degree or as bearish five wave impulsive pattern of minor degree, both would satisfy the situation. Our EMA200 on the weekly chart has provided the pair with a bullish pull back with relative strength index also trading near 38.0. Considering the aforementioned scenario id rather opt for a bearish corretion of higher degree. Going back to the daily, in our previous analysis published on 17th July provided a clear and indepth explaination of the breakout from head and shoulder pattern with an impulsive 5 wave structure. 0.70430 was one of the critical supports which the market provided a prominent breakout with closing below as well, creating daily low at 0.72850. On the daily chart AUDUSD is below our 38.2%fibb level as well while the relative strength index also needs more time to recover from bearish momentum. When we move to analyzing the wave structure and elliot count, the current scenario is indicating towards a bullish correction, providing an upthrust towards our upper trend line and 50% fibb level at minimum.

BULLISH AND BEARISH CONDITIONS/ POSSIBILTIES :

AUD/USD lost its traction after edging higher toward 0.7400. AUD/USD looks to close fourth straight week in the negative territory. US Dollar Index holds near 93.00 after mixed PMI data. The AUD/USD pair climbed toward 0.7400 during the European trading hours but lost its traction in the second half of the day. At the moment, the pair is down 0.1% on the day at 0.7370 and remains on track to close the fourth straight week in the negative territory. According to the wave analysis, Australian dollar on the 4 hour chart is on a minor degree of bullish correction which seems to have ended at 0.74000 and there are more chances of bearish moves. A strong bearish impuslive closing here would send the pair down to 0.72300 but as we know its a bit far for now and we need more confirmation for that on the daily chart. One can sell the pair and have TP at 0.72870 and a further closing below would provide the second TP at 0.72300. In case we find a bullish closing above 0.74000, then one can adjust their targeted destination as 0.7500-0.75600.

AUDUSD D1

Jul 24 2021