USDCAD reached our targeted destination at EMA200 i.e 1.25622 - according to our analysis published on 20th July without even taking a glimpse of having a bullish reversal yet, falling straight to our weekly pivots. Loonie has followed its structure in a very fine way, forming an impulsive bearish wave 'a', ending near our exponential moving average 200. When we observe the weekly chart, it calls for completion of the bullish corrective structure at 1.28000 and taking a reversal from our weekly exponential moving average 50. This current formation of the market is actually pointing at continuation of bearish rally but wouldnt be certain about that until we have atleast another prominent wave being formed to provide us with a clear structure. As of for now USDCAD is within our bullish channel and is valid until we have a breakout from it. From current perspective if we get to have a bullish pull back from our weekly pivot then the next point of observation will be its level of closing and then a reversal, such a formation will eradicate all the confusions and give us a more genuine direction to trust and adjust our positions accordingly. 

BULLISH AND BEARISH POSSIBILITIES/ CONDITIONS :

So as i said, in weekly chart we have a correction being completed, while on daily the bearish correction has begun, both are indicating a dovish stance. Moving down to H4, sentiments are somewhat mixed because the structure formed in four hourly timeframe is supporting both bearish and bullish structure, so weekly pivot will be the deciding point in terms of finding an impulsive closing below or above the level i.e 1.25562. As the Loonie has moved below 50% fibb level and is still floating there along with exponential moving average 200 being on top, its difficult for it to be broken with a hawkish sentiment anytime soon so we will have to wait as of for now in regards to the scenarios elaborated above.  

USDCAD D1

Jul 25 2021