According to our analysis published on 26th July, we published our opinion according to the bullish and bearish possibilities as we knew that GBPJPY retrieved from fibonacci retracement levels i.e 50% and 61.8% with a strong hawkish pull, but the upper trend line to our bearish channel and the intraday exponential moving averages 8, 13 and 21 below were indicating a short term fall. We also expected that their might be chances of bullish strength by pound yen to reach up to 152.50, which it did - followed by a reversal from the very point. Another scenario was of a bearish closing beneath that level would indicate that the gbpjpy will go for a short term sell ride towards 150.65. A bullish fractal confirmation above this weekly support of ours would have marked the continuation of our bullish trend while breaking of the structure will make us recalculate the waves in accordance to the fibb levels and MACD to provide any further suggestions on the pair.

BULLISH AND BEARISH POSSIBILITIES/ CONDITIONS :

From current market perspective - i would call this the end of bullish correction of higher degree and as the pair failed to provide us with a fractal confirmation above 153.0-153.30 and reversed towards 152.50, indicates that the exponential moving average 50 will be the bearish driving force for GBPJPY and make it land towards 61.8% and 50% fibb retracement levels. This might be the continuation of our bearish rally due to the weakness of pound and strength of king dollar or a slight break above our previous daily high i.e 153.40 would make GBPJPY run on parallel footing with USDJPY for as we know that the JPY pairs are mostly riding in the same direction. For now we are taking the failure of GBPJPY to breakabove the aforementioned level and the neutrality of this supply and demand zone as a bearish reversal for the pair before any legitamate breakout at either ends. In four hourly chart it has already started to move below exponential moving average 50 and 200 but a closing below daily exponential moving average 50 and intraday moving averages would get us the confirmation of bears taking the orders now. 

GBPJPY D1

Aug 01 2021