AUS200 

The down move slightly more pronounced. This market still has ZERO pricing in of lockdowns, let alone the Recession we have already begun.

Earnings, earnings, earnings, it is ll about earnings the bulls say. this is incredibly irresponsible, given earnings are about the post first wave stimulus boom, and the future is about an economy in recession.
 
Good day,

The NSW Premier has finally said it.

Even, if we get to 80% vaccination rates, if there are still high case numbers such as 500, then we cannot go back to life as normal and reopen. There will be on-going restrictions. The nature of those restrictions will depend on the case numbers that still persist.

A personal observation, is that if case numbers are low enough, perhaps we will see a gradual opening up. It may be along the lines of re-opening retail and all normal business, but maintaining the 5km or 10 km rule? Allowing the economy to come back, but with limited mobility. Of course, any mix of the individual lockdown aspects currently being experienced may be what we end up seeing.

 ?


What is clear, is that there is not going to be a shift from the current red light lockdown situation, to that of green for go.

More like amber. I use to tell my children what the traffic lights meant. Red for stop. Green for go. Amber for go very fast! However, in this situation, it is more likely to be a go-slow, for many months to come.

Unfortunately, my forecast last week, that we are already in the midst of a recession Q3, Q4, perhaps leaking into Q1 2022, is looking increasingly probable. 

As for global markets, all highlighted previous themes remain in place. We have some new members to our audience today. Welcome to our team.

A quick catch all summary or our thoughts follows below.

China data merely reverting to norm.

While there are reasons for concern at the rate of fall back in China's various data series, retail sales, industrial output and fixed asset investment, all below, are simply returning to more normal pre-covid levels.

Concern over the possibility of an over-shoot to the downside are probably overdone. As the central bank remains willing to adjust policy if need be. Reasonable stabilisation at still high levels of growth being the most likely outcome.

ASX 200 Significant downside risk on recession probability

Aug 16 2021