For USDCHF we will analyze the H4 time frame.

- Market structure: Market structure on USDCHF just turned bearish after it broke the support level at 0.9140. After the break, candles opened and closed below the zone on H1. On H4, USDCHF is retesting the support turn resistance. With this, we anticipate USDCHF sliding to the 0.9070 price level.

- Trendline: Market has a descending trendline breakout sell. Candles opening and closing below the trendline validated it. It is also to be noted that the breakout sell was with a volume filled bearish candle. Market already absorbed the trendline breakout sell impact. Ideally, USDCHF has to retrace to continue down. But in this case, we will look for shorts at the current level because of no bullish momentum being reflected on the charts.

- Retracement: The golden retracement level of 75-78.6% aligns with the support level and is at a price point of 0.9070. We don’t have a retracement level for our short position but in fact, we have a retracement level drawn in confluence with the support. This area is depicted as the profit taking area of our sell setup.

- EMA's: Both EMA’s are bearish at the moment. The EMA’s were pierced the candles and have not yet been retested. We may see a retest at the resistance level. Even if the retest doesn’t happen, we will prioritize the bearish structure and take a sell.

- RSI/CCI: Both oscillators are in the sell zone. Oscillators tapped the oversold region and bounced back. 

Currently, RSI is at 32 and CCI at -88. This depicts we still have room towards the downside. That being said, we will wait for the oscillators to neutralize their levels.

USDCHF is at a good level to short. It’s a less risky pair as the volume is mere. Our stops are placed at 0.9165. At this level, we will take a sell with a tight stop loss and 80 pips reward.

If market moves up breaking the resistance, our trade plan is nullidied.

USDCHF 80 pips sell move

Aug 16 2021

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