Our published analysis on 10th August - displayed strong bearish conditions on GBPCHF, expecting it to rise a bit towards 1.28434 and then fall at 1.2560. The bears took control of the market at 1.2792, providing a breakout below our upper trend line. In four hourly chart the pair seems to have completed its bearish correction followed by a 5 wave bearish impulsive move. The relative strength index in four hourly chart has entered oversold conditions while MACD is generating some bullish strength to pull the pair out of the situation. GBPCHF is also trading below our exponential moving averages 8,13,21,50 and 200, a bullish reversal from the current market price wont be enough to alter the trend, we would need to get a breakout above our aforementioned exponential moving averages and upper trend line i.e 1.26800. Pounds weakness came from the Fed's minutes pointed to tapering. Worries that the BOE may have to delay tightening due to low inflation and rising covid cases are weighing on sterling.

BULLISH AND BEARISH CONDITIONS / POSSIBILITIES :

In daily time frame GBPCHF is standing above our exponential moving average 200 with high supply and demand in this zone. Relative strength index in daily is leaving bearish footprints but the MACD on other hand is trying to undo the dovish scenario and put some fuel to the bulls for a hawkish reversal from the current market price. Great Britian Pound versus Swiss Franc has moved a bit below our 61.8% fibb retracement level but hasnt broken the previous weekly and daily price action 1.25000-1.25100 which has been acting as a strong support, preventing the market from breaking out any further. In case we get a bearish closing below the aforementioned level then our next stop will be 50% fibb retracement level i.e 1.23900.

GBPCHF

Aug 19 2021