USDCAD has hit our stop loss to the signal and article published on 14th August with bearish conditions but Canadian dollar despite of getting positive figures released yestarday during CPI m/m, Median CPI y/y and Trimmed CPI y/y news. USDCAD has reached its daily high from July again i.e 1.2740-1.28000. We have our 50% fibb retracement level in daily placed here which can become a strong point of bearish reversal for the pair along with the strong price action level i.e 1.28000. The relative strength index in four hourly chart is portraying overbought conditions by floating near 79. Our monthly resistance one (MR1) and daily resistance three (DR3) are present at 1.2754 which are acting as strong barriers from preventing the pair to provide any further breakouts. According to the fundamentals released yestarday, the pair was suppose to provide us with some strong bearish impulses but it seems that the market makers have been pumping in huge lots to fill the buy orders before continuing any dovish trends. 

BULLISH AND BEARISH CONDITIONS / POSSIBILITIES :

The positive case for CAD remains compelling but in circumstances of broader USD strength, the scope for USD/CAD declines is limited. Our relative data surprise index versus the US is CAD supportive as are spreads. Our combined Oil/Spread model has turned a little higher but the spot rate remains well within 2 std deviations and the model suggests scope for some USD/CAD decline. According to the technicals and price action, if US dollar versus Canadian dollar stay well below 1.28000 and provides us with an impulsive bearish fractal, then we are back on the roads with Canadian dollars strength, but if the aforementioned resistance is broken and the pair accumulated itself above 1.28000 then our next stop will be 1.29130.

USDCAD

Aug 19 2021