We published an article on 12th August showing bearish sentiments on dollar based on the failure of King dollar to provide us with a bullish closing above 110.60 - which was acting as our weekly and daily resistance. The dollar churned higher this week propelled by the safe-haven trade and the confirmation that, as of its July 28 meeting, the Fed was intent on defining the terms of its long awaited bond taper. Questions about the direction of the US economy raised by the very weak July Retail Sales on Tuesday and last week’s plunge in August Consumer Sentiment will have to wait until more data is available.

The market has reached "senkou span b" in four hourly chart while trading below our exponential moving average 50 and 200 with MACD showing neutral sentiments to the current market price. When we observe daily chart, US dollar versus Japanese Yen has taken an exit from the ichimoku cloud and is currently trading below exponential moving average 50. 

BULLISH AND BEARISH CONDITIONS / POSSIBILITIES :

The Federal Reserve begins its annual three-day Jackson Hole symposium on Thursday August 26. Though the pending taper has been a much conjectured topic, in view of the recent economic data, Fed officials are likely to be reticent, leaving their options open in case US growth and job creation deteriorates. The six-week old channel between 109.00 and 110.50 dominates USD/JPY prospects. Its effect is evident in the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) ending the week nearly neutral. True Range exhibits the lack of momentum, closing at its lowest point for the week. Support and resistance lines in close proximity and narrowly spaced are another residue of the recent stasis in the USD/JPY.  Except for the range markers at 109.00 and 110.50, none are particularly strong and would fall to a concerted fundamentally based move.

USDJPY

Aug 21 2021