Oil adapted to a dovish stance this week and went down by almost 1.38% in the session,  trades under the 63.00 around 62.78 with Friday closing at 63.65 - posting a loss of 0.94%. The prices of oil are being affected by the surge in cases of the Delta variant, which could diminish Crude demand around the world. Moreover, raising questions about vaccine efficacy starts to emerge, as the United States will start the covid-19 vaccine boost program by September 20.  Risk appetite continues weak, with some of the commodity currencies like the AUD, the NZD and the CAD falling 0.08%, 0.12% and 0.16% respectively against the greenback. The US 10-year Treasury yields rise 10 basis points (bps) to sit at 1.252%, while the DXY which tracks the value of the US dollar against six currencies, gains 0.05%. Oil prices are being influenced by the greenback, which recent strength lies in the Fed’s bond taper expectations. The Jackson Hole Symposium approaches, where the chairman Jerome Powell’s speech is the most expected by investors.

BULLISH AND BEARISH CONDITIONS / POSSIBILITIES :

WTI trades between the 100-day moving average, and the 200-DMA. The 50-DMA stands around 70.00 flat. In today’s session a dip to 62.00 price was retraced, and Crude trades in the mid-point of the 62-63.97 range. On the downside, the first support is 62.00, followed by May 21 low at 61.52, then $61. Contrarily to the upside, the first resistance is at 63, followed by 64, then May 20 low around the 64.95-65 range. The relative strength index is supporting the bears for now but keeping our exponential moving average 200 in daily and the 61.8% fibb retracement level ahead, the aforementioned might become a strong point of bullish reversal for the oil (as far as the fundamentals are in support).

BULLS AWAITED ON WTI

Aug 22 2021