USDCAD has moved finely in accordance to our analysis published on 19th Aug anticipating bearish tone from US Dollar and hawks to strengthen Canadian Dollar by pulling the pair down from its daily highest high 1.29468 towards our lower trend line of the bullish channel 1.2580. Our dovish expectations were based on USDCAD reaching its daily high from July again i.e 1.2740-1.28000. Also we had our 50% fibb retracement level in daily placed here which became a strong point of bearish reversal for the pair along with the strong price action level i.e 1.28000. The relative strength index in four hourly chart had portrayed overbought conditions by floating near 79. Our monthly resistance one (MR1) and daily resistance three (DR3) were present at 1.2754 which acted as strong barriers from preventing the pair to provide any further breakouts.

BULLISH AND BEARISH CONDITIONS / POSSIBILITIES :

From current market perspective the loonie might have some strength to pull the pair down to 1.25284 before taking any moves higher. The market is trading above our exponential moving average 50 and 200 in daily but the EMAs are positioned near the monthly pivot which can become a point of retest because even our lower trend line to the bullish channel is present there - multiple factors supporting a short dip towards the aforementioned and then a strong bullish continuation of trend can be witnessed. Incase USDCAD didnt retrace from Senkou Span A and entered the ichimoku cloud in daily, patience would be required with neutral sentiments unless we find a bearish impulsive closing below the bullish channels structure or the pair retracing back inside and favoring the hawks. 

USDCAD

Aug 26 2021

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