BTCUSD has been in a shape of extended consolidation since 20th Aug and failed to provide a bearish impulsive breakout below 50% fibb retracement level i.e 46,200-46900 support zone. A breakout below wouldve opened the gateway towards 38.2% fibb at 42598 which would indicate the completion of a bearish corrective structure. In the daily time frame, minor degree of bearish correction can be seen but a higher degree is required in order to get confirmation that the next target would be yearly highs at $61,000. Currently, the pioneer cryptocurrency is just above the $49,000 support level and needs to flip the $51,483 resistance level into a demand barrier. Doing so is likely to trigger a massive upswing to nearly $57,000. Supporting this bullish outlook is IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) model, which shows that $56,575 is the only significant level that plagues the upswing. Here, roughly 3.46 million addresses purchased 1.54 million BTC.

BULLISH AND BEARISH CONDITIONS/ POSSIBILITIES :

  These investors are currently underwater and chose to break even, adding selling pressure and dampening the ascent. Therefore, clearing this barrier is exceptionally bullish anda key metric to keep an eye on. Perfectly in sync with the growth in daily active addresses is the increase in the transaction volume metric. This on-chain index rose from $34 billion to $205 billion since June, denoting a 500% increase, indicating that the capital inflow has increased. Now is a low risk time to be accumulating BTC... the demand and supply factors at play point towards a continued bull market into 2022. The majority of the market expects a bear market in 2022, however long term on-chain structure does not support this. I suspect this has not yet been priced in, especially in the long term options markets. While things seem bullish for Bitcoin price, a failure to break past $50,000 that leads to a pullback to $46,000 will be concerning. However, if BTC creates a lower low below $44,705, it will invalidate the bullish outlook.

In some cases, this move could result in a crash to $41,330 or $40,550.

BTCUSD

Sep 06 2021

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