GBPCHF on 22nd Aug managed to break below exponential moving average 200 in daily but was strongly supported by 50% fibo retracement level at 1.2441. GBP gained some bullish momentum from the aforementioned zone and with the assistance of MACD shifting strength from bears to bulls - indicated that the pair will be adapting to hawkish sentiments for further gains. On 3rd Sept the attention shifted to our short-term oscillators, we saw that the RSI, already above 50, had turned up again, while the MACD ran above both its zero and trigger lines. Both indicators detected upside speed and supported the notion for a trend continuation. In order to abandon the bullish case and start examining the case of a trend reversal, we would like to see a dip below 1.2590, an intraday swing low of September 1st. 

BULLISH AND BEARISH CONDITIONS/ POSSIBILITIES :

The rate would already be below the aforementioned upside line, and may initially pave the way towards the low of August 31st, at 1.2560. If the bears are not willing to stop there, then a break lower could see scope for extensions towards the 1.2528 zone, defined by the low of the day before.

A decisive break above 1.2666 would confirm a forthcoming higher high and may initially target the 1.2685 level, marked by an intraday swing high formed on August 16th. If that level is broken as well, then we could see advances towards the 1.2714 barrier, which is the peak of July 28th. Another break, above 1.2714, could extend the trend towards the inside swing low of August 12th.

GBPCHF

Sep 23 2021