It's been a choppy session but USD/CHF ultimately looks set to end the day lower by about 30 pips or just over 0.3%. The pair is currently trading at session lows in the 0.9170 area, having started the day to the north of the 0.9200 level, and is eyeing a test of this week’s lows at 0.9150. Unless USD/CHF can break below support before the NY close, which seems unlikely as volumes decline into the weekend, it seems the pair will be consigned to enter next week within the same 0.9150-0.9220ish range that has prevailed all week. A deterioration in risk appetite over the last few hours that has seen US equities, commodities and most risk-sensitive commodities come under pressure is benefitting traditional safe-haven assets. Long-term US yields are substantially lower reflecting a bond bid that is also helping the likes of the yen and Swiss franc. Friday’s US November labour market report was mixed, with the headline NFP number missing expectations by a big margin but other aspects of the report, such as the unemployment rate, suggest the labour market continues to progress and remains tight.

BULLISH AND BEARISH CONDITIONS/ POSSIBILITIES :

In addition to the stated key moving average near 0.9180, 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of August-November upside, respectively around 0.9197 and 0.9155, also challenge the sellers. It’s worth noting that the firmer Momentum line and a four-month-old ascending trend line, near 0.9115, keeps USD/CHF bulls hopeful.

Meanwhile, an upside break of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.9240 will reject the bearish candlestick performance. However, USD/CHF buyers may wait for a clear run-up past 0.9250, comprising early November lows, to retake controls.

Heading into the key data risk, any subsequent move up is more likely to confront stiff resistance near the weekly swing high, around the 0.9270-75 region.

USDCHF Supported by 200 DMA

farhan fazal

Dec 05 2021

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