Russian unrest causing SP500 to dump
Vasl Capital
SP500·
Feb 17 2022
Take Profit +2.34%
Holding time 1d2hr
4465.54
Entry price
4361.06
Take profit price
SP500 has been bearish since the start of the month. Forming lower highs and lower lows. 4450 was an important support zone which was breached, converting the support into a resistance level. Now, market is testing this same resistance level. From here, we will be looking to short SP500 till the next support level.
Earlier, market has broken out for sells by an ascending trendline. After the breakout sells, there is another h4 ascending trendline on the verge of the breakout. There are two scenarios in this case: either we enter immediately after the breakout sell or we wait for another tap towards the resistance after the breakout. After the market has induced the break out sell, a good short position would be at the retest of the resistance level.
The golden retracement level of 75-78.6% region aligns with the resistance level. This complies with our technical factors of a strong level. Therefore, we have analyzed this resistance level as the point of price rejecting.
Both the EMA’s are bullish with a bearish death cross. Market broke out the EMA 50, and is currently tapping the EMA at the resistance level, hence creating another confluence. EMA 200 and is due a retest. But this retest is far above the resistance level, hence, EMA 50 is in confluence currently for us to go short.
Both the oscillators are in a bearish region, hovering around the neutralized levels. RSI is at 49 and CCI at -4. Once market moves to retest the resistance level, we might experience the oscillators turning bullish for a while. At that point when all else is aligned for shorts, final touch will be provided by the oscillators as moving towards the bearish side and hence, taking our short positions.
CONCLUSION: BEARISH
SP500 is bearish and in a decent setup with a high probability. In that case, if market moves against us, we will take losses above the 75% retracement level.