Bitcoin price has suffered some significant bearish pressure over the past week. Risk-on markets across the globe continue to feel pressure due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Since last Tuesday (February 15, 2022), Bitcoin has dropped from a swing high of $44,760 to a swing low of $36,400 – nearly a 20% drop in a week. Whether the news or standard technical analysis behavior is to blame, BTC nonetheless returned to test a former resistance level as support – so far, it has held.

Bulls are likely to take over and push Bitcoin price back inside the Ichimoku Cloud to test the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $41,160 as resistance. Ultimately, bulls will need to return Bitcoin above the Ichimoku Cloud (Senkou Span B) to return BTC to a full-on bull market. A daily close above $42,685 would position Bitcoin into an Ideal Bullish Ichimoku Breakout, leading to moves beyond $50,000 and into the $60,000 value areas.

However, downside risks are significant. If bears push Bitcoin price to a close below $36,500, then new 2022 lows and even a retest of the 2021 lows at $28,500 is almost a certainty.

Bitcoin breaks 40800/500 for a medium term sell signal in the 3 month bear trend initially targeting 38000/37500 then 36400/36000 & probably as far as 34000. Do not be surprised to see a test of the 100 week moving average at 32690/700 (today's value).

Gains are likely to be limited in the bear trend with first resistance at 36300/400 then 39400/450. Further resistance at 40900/41000. Shorts need stops above 42200.

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