DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor nor certified analyst, and definitely not a pro trader. All contents discussed on this blogpost are solely my own views and for trading education/entertainment purposes only. Trading and investing in cryptocurrencies are extremely risky where losses can exceed deposits. Enter with discretion. Do your own research and due diligence. The basis of this technical analysis is pure speculation.

Happy Sunday to all. Just like in my previous technical analysis for Ripple’s XRP, I am seeing the same price movement for Stellar Lumens network’s native cryptocurrency, XLM. The said crypto is currently in position for a 4-hour wave D direction. Take note that the overall structure or reference point I am basing unto is XLM’s February high at 0.25600+ level. This should be the retracement basis for my Elliot corrective waves counting.

The XLM has given up more than 37% price correction already and been consolidating for more than 18 days at the time of writing this article.

I am trying to get a shorting opportunity after assessing XLM’s possible price action based on these gatherings but I will be very careful on the invalidation area near the 50% and 61.80% retracement level ranges! I am speculating that XLM bulls might rally the price towards the wave D’s end around the crypto’s 1-month old resistance zone that has been tested few times as strong area of rejection though the XLM managed to flipped it into a quick support that lasted from February 14-15. A 4-hour double top candles last February 18 is a convincing rejection! I will put my XLMUSD short trading plan’s stop loss near this area around 0.20500.

Currently, XLM’s price has found support near the 23.60% fib retracement and buyers are gathering momentum to re-test towards the 38.20% level. My short entry price will be 0.19500 and can have a decent chance for the wave D ending.

I have also spotted a hidden ascending channels performing higher lows and highs. These can be our current range bounds and taking profit at the possible higher low price at 0.17000 is a good reward to take.

Overall, the risk:reward score of my latest crypto trade plan for XLMUSD is 2.50.

Fundamentally, the general sentiment in cryptocurrency markets is in fear metrics. So for me, accumulating phase is the name of the game at least for this current trend.

Hope you may find my latest TA helpful and wishing everyone a happy trading week ahead!

Shorting the XLMUSD’s 50% Retracement level!

Feb 27 2022

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