The fundamental aspect of the news is getting rigorous around the board. The safe havens have gained traction with gold flying and yen strengthening. Earlier, we took a loss in going long on GBPJPY. Now, given the situation in Russia is getting tense, we anticipate GBPJPY for a further leg lower.

It should be noted that the higher time frames, all denote bullish trend on GBPJPY and is currently retracing on higher time frames, which has formed a bearish trend on H4. This bearish trend needs to break the structure and start the bullish structure. This resistance stands at 154.50 which needs to be pierced, in order for the bullish momentum to continue. If it rejects this area, then we might further head down for another bearish leg. This is the point we will be looking for shorts.

The descending trendline might be broken out for buys. That being said, we will still wait for the structure to turn bullish. We won’t be entering buys if the trendline is broken out. More chances of the price being rejected at the trendline exist.

The golden retracement level of 75-78.6% is above the resistance level. We might see a wick at the level which would get us with minimum risk.

Both the EMA’s are bearish with a bearish death cross. The retest of either of the EMA’s seems to be at the retracement level, which will form a confluence. This confluence will be strong enough to bring the market down.

RSI and CCI, both the oscillators need to be neutralized in order to align with the bearish position we are looking forward to take. If both the oscillators are neutralized at the retracement level, it will be a decent position to take.

GBPJPY shorts from 154.50

Mar 06 2022

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