NZD/USD grinds higher around a four-day top, taking rounds to 0.6860-65 during the early Friday morning in Asia as more risk-negative headlines and data try to beat the bulls.

The kiwi pair surprised markets the previous day while rising amid the risk-off mood, also ignoring firmer US dollar and softer commodity prices. The reason could be linked to the hawkish hopes of a faster rate-hike trajectory by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) as global policymakers prepare plans to battle the new supply chain problems caused by the Ukraine-Russia crisis.

In doing so, the Kiwi pair stretches the U-turn from a one-week-long horizontal resistance area around 0.6875. Also favoring the bearish bias is the downward sloping RSI line, not oversold.

However, an upward sloping support line from March 02, around 0.6825, followed by the 200-HMA level of 0.6815, restricts short-term NZD/USD downside.

In a case where the quote drops below 0.6815, the 0.6800 threshold will be in focus.

Alternatively, recovery moves remain elusive below the previously said horizontal resistance near 0.6875.

Should the NZD/USD prices rally beyond 0.6875, the 0.6900 round figure and the monthly high of 0.6926 may entertain the bulls.

Overall, the kiwi pair is up for further declines but there prevails a limited downside space for the bears to cheer.

Looking forward, headlines concerning Russia and Ukraine will be crucial for near-term directions while the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March, expected 61.3 versus 62.8 could entertain NZD/USD traders as well.

Further Weakness Expected on Kiwi Below EMA50 & 200

Mar 11 2022