The pair has posted a lower low and a lower high for a fourth consecutive week, reflecting the dominant bearish trend and hinting at further slides ahead. When measuring this year’s slump, the pair has failed to gain ground above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1067, a relevant resistance level.

The weekly chart shows that the risk remains skewed to the downside, as the pair is trading well below bearish moving averages. At the same time, technical indicators are holding near their recent lows, without signs of bearish exhaustion.

Technical readings on the daily chart show that the risk is skewed to the downside, as technical indicators have stabilized well into negative territory after correcting extreme oversold readings. At the same time, the 20-SMA heads firmly lower, far above the current level and below the longer ones, which also offer bearish slopes.

An immediate support level comes in at around 1.0960, where the pair meets the 23.6% retracement of the aforementioned slump, followed by the year’s low at 1.0855. Below the latter, the next possible bearish target is 1.0760. To the upside, bulls may gather some confidence if the pair surpasses 1.1120, the weekly high, aiming to test 1.1225, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the aforementioned slump.

the EUR/USD pair has room to recover in the next few weeks, although, on average, the pair is seen holding below the 1.1200 figure, and hardly seen beyond above 1.1400 in the upcoming three months. It is worth noting that bulls increase as time goes by, reaching 68% of the polled experts in the quarterly perspective.

The Overview chart shows that the weekly moving average bounced modestly from a multi-month low, while the longer ones remain directionless, somehow suggesting speculative interest expects a corrective advance but is unsure about sustained gains.

Hawkish Sentiments on EURUSD Towards 1.1200 - 1.1400

Mar 13 2022