The NZD/USD carried on last Friday’s sentiment as a risk-off market mood dented appetite for riskier assets, meaning commodity-linked currencies and high beta ones. At press time, the NZD/USD is trading just above last Friday’s 0.6797 low, but 0.07% down. The NZD/USD is downward biased, though trading near the 100-day moving average (DMA) at 0.6821. Overnight, the pair dipped towards the 50% Fibonacci level at 0.6778, though it jumped to near the 0.6800 mark. Since then, the NZD/USD has been seesawing up/down the figure.

IF NZD/USD bull would like to remain hopeful of higher prices, they would need to hold the NZD/USD above 0.6800. A breach of the latter would exacerbate a downward move, which could push the pair lower. The first support would be the 50% Fibonacci and today’s low at 0.6773. Once giving way, the next stop would be the 61.8% Fibonacci at 0.6743, immediately followed by the 78.6% retracement at 0.6693.

Beyond 0.6872/75 should raise the risk back higher again for a renewed test of the moving 200-DMA and the YTD high at 0.6920/26. Above here, next formidable resistance is seen at the 50% retracement of the 2021/22 down move at 0.6993/97.

Below 0.6775/73 can see weakness extend to the 55-DMA at .06742/35 but with a good floor still expected here. A close below here though would see the risk back lower again with support then seen next at the recent spike low at 0.6630/29, then 0.6601/6589

Kiwi Is Hawkish Above the Trend Line

Mar 14 2022

Stop Loss -0.59%

Holding time 5hr

0.67840

Entry price

0.67440

Stop loss price