The US dollar’s rally from early-March lows near 0.9150 seems to have lost steam on Wednesday. The pair has been trading sideways around the 0.9400 mark on Wednesday, lacking direction with investors' focusing on the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting.

From a technical perspective, the pair is now teetering right above the support trendline from early March lows, now at 0.9390.

A confirmation below that line might cancel the near-term bullish momentum and, send the pair towards the 100-hour SMA at 0.9360, which has offered support previously, before aiming for March 14 low at 0.9320.

On the upside, immediate resistance lies at 0.9415, and above here, 0.9430 (March 15 high) before setting sail to attack April 2021 high at 0.9470.

Support for a potential correction is now seen at the broken November high at 0.9373/70 initially, which ideally holds to maintain the immediate strong upward pressure. A close below here would warn of a move back to the broken April downtrend at 0.9330/26, which we expect to hold.

Apart from this, the prospects for an imminent start of the policy tightening cycle by the Fed held back bearish traders from placing aggressive bets and extended some support to the USD/CHF pair.

We shift our view to tactically bullish for an eventual test of the 2021 high at 0.9473. A clear and sustained break above here should reinforce thoughts of a medium-term uptrend with resistance then seen next at the 50% retracement of the 2019/2021 fall at 0.9497, then the 200 -week average at .9533/36, with the mid-June 2020 high at 0.9554.

FOMC Speech Expected to Become a Bearish Driver to USDCHF

farhan fazal

Mar 16 2022