Who'd Win : Bearish Technical or Hawkish Fundamental ?

BRENT1D

Short

Mar 21 2022

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, has witnessed an intense buying interest after hitting a low of $92.37 on Tuesday. The black gold is surging swiftly after the International Energy Agency (IEA) raises concerns over the supply bottlenecks due to sanctions imposed on Russia by the Western leaders.
The IEA said three million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil and products could be shut in from next month. That loss would be far greater than an expected drop in demand of one million bpd from higher fuel prices. The statement from the IEA has pushed the oil prices higher after an almost 25% fall from its recent highs at $126.51 on March 8.
Although the black gold retreats from daily top of late, also the weekly high, it manages to stay beyond the 100 and 200 SMAs, as well as a downward sloping trend line from March 10.
Given the bullish MACD signals favor the latest breakouts, the upside momentum is likely to extend.
However, a clear break of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of February 18 to March 08 upside, near $107.00, becomes necessary for the bull’s conviction.
Following that, a fortnight-long horizontal area surrounding $115.00 will regain the market’s attention.
Alternatively, pullback moves may initially aim for the 100-SMA and the previous resistance line, respectively around $105.30 and $104.00, before highlighting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level surrounding $102.30.
In a case where the WTI crude oil prices drop below $102.30, the odds of witnessing a south-run towards the $100.00 threshold and then to the 200-SMA near $98.00 can’t be ruled out.