The EUR/USD remains subdued amid a choppy trading day, as the market mood swings from risk-on to off continue, on “hawkish” comments by Fed officials, stagnate peace talks discussions of Russia and Ukraine, and an attack on Saudi Arab Aramco installations on Friday. At 1.0992, the EUR/USD shows the resilience of the greenback, despite being softer in the day.

As the New York session progresses, the market sentiment is mixed. European and US equity indices fluctuate between gainers and losers, while the US Dollar Index, a gauge of the greenback’s value vs. a basket of six currencies, is barely flat at 98.787.

EUR/USD rose above the 100-period SMA on the four-hour chart and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator edged higher above 50, pointing to a bullish tilt in the near-term technical outlook. However, the pair is yet to show any signs of a buildup of momentum.

1.1040 (Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest downtrend) aligns as key resistance on the upside. In case this level turns into support, the pair could target 1.1080 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) and 1.1100 (psychological level).

On the other hand, a four-hour close below 1.1000 (psychological level, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, 100-period SMA) could open the door for an extended slide toward 1.0960 (static level) and 1.0940 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement).

The EUR/USD is still downward biased, though, in the last four trading days, the EUR/USD has been trading in a narrow range, between 1.0960-1.1000. The lack of a catalyst, plus fluctuations in the market mood, might keep the shared currency trendless.

That said, the EUR/USD first support would be 1.0960. Breach of the latter would expose 1.0900, followed by the YTD low at 1.0806. On the flip side, the EUR/USD first resistance would be 1.1000. Once cleared, the next resistance would be 1.1050, followed by  1.1100.

Bearish Outlook Overweighs EURUSD

Mar 25 2022

Stop Loss -0.65%

Holding time 3d17hr

1.09970

Entry price

1.10680

Stop loss price