Oil tapped the all time high level during the Russian crisis at the price of 127, and then started to push back down. Right now, it is priced at the 104.00 where we have a H4 support. The dilemma of the oil remains unclear as of now because we are in a downtrend in H4, and bullish in higher time frames. Forming lower highs and lower lows on H4, we tend to see the continuation being bearish further more towards the 90. Where we are looking to go short is the price of 106.00, which is a minor resistance and needs to be rejected. If market is rejected at this minor resistance, then we will have our short position till the price of 90.

We see a bearish pennant forming on the pair. This pattern tends to breakout sell from the support trendline, which technically, it has already done. The candles are validating the price action by opening and closing below the trendline. Once the support level is breached, we will have a confirmation for the further shorts.

The golden retracement area of 75-78.6% is in confluence with the minor resistance level at the price of 108. If market taps and rejects this level, we will be looking to go short.

Both the EMA’s are bearish with a bullish death cross. As the market has started its decline, we anticipate the death cross turning bearish soon. Market broke EMA 200 just now, and is retesting it. Once the support is broken out after this retest, we see a clean short move.

Oscillators are below the neutralized levels, in the bearish region. The RSI being at 43 and CCI at 93. Given our position rests at the support level, we need a retracement on the oscillators as well. Either they dive in the bearish region, all the way towards the over sold region, or they continue hovering around the bullish neutralized levels. If the over bought region is reached, a bearish divergence will act as a push down factor.

Oil weakness amidst Russian Ukraine crisis resolving

Apr 04 2022

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