Oil tapped the all time high level during the Russian crisis at the price of 127, and then started to push back down. We are already in shorts from the 108 region, as shared in the earlier analysis. Right now, it is priced at the 100.00 where we have a broken H4 support, now turned resistance. The dilemma of the oil remains unclear as of now because we are in a downtrend in H4, and bullish in higher time frames. Forming lower highs and lower lows on H4, we tend to see the continuation being bearish further more towards the 90. Where we are looking to go short is the price of 105.00, which is a minor resistance and needs to be rejected. If market is rejected at this minor resistance, then we will have our short position till the price of 90.

We see a bearish pennant forming on the pair. This pattern tends to breakout sell from the support trendline, which technically, it has already done. The candles are validating the price action by opening and closing below the trendline. Once the support level is breached, we will have a confirmation for the further shorts.

The golden retracement area of 75-78.6% is in confluence with the minor resistance level at the price of 105.50. If market taps and rejects this level, we will be looking to go short.

Both the EMA’s are bearish with a bullish death cross. As the market has started its decline, we anticipate the death cross turning bearish soon. Market broke EMA 200 just now, and will be retesting it. Once the support is broken out after this retest, we see a clean short move.

Oscillators are below the neutralized levels, in the bearish region. The RSI being at 39 and CCI at -123. Given our position rests at the support level, we need a retracement on the oscillators as well. Either they dive in the bearish region, all the way towards the over sold region, or they continue hovering around the  neutralized levels. Right now, the window towards the over sold region is narrowed down, hence, we need a further wide window to take the short trader. Therefore, we will be waiting for the oscillators to tap the neutralized levels.

Oil tanking

Vasl Capital

Apr 08 2022

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