The cryptocurrency market leader, Bitcoin, have suffered eight brutal months of price action! After a spectacular 2021 year end finish of almost hitting $70,000 all time high, the crypto leader has entered price hibernation shedding more than 70% of its most valuable price.

Market analysts and speculators alike claim that Bitcoin is clearly in a bear market already well in fact, it is back in its own bear market period after impressive run we have witnessed during last quarter of 2020! Who could have thought that Bitcoin’s long year resistance from 2017-2020 be re-tested and broken easily? Then rest is history. I personally believe that one of the catalysts that move Bitcoin to its height of power, is the early stages of global Covid pandemic where cryptocurrencies became a hype.

So let us go back to reality. Who is the king of the trend now? Obviously, the answer is the most-ever hawkish US dollar! Sending a clear message to entire global financial markets including crypto that it is the boss at the moment at least. Haters just simply say, Bitcoin is nothing but a speculation!

If we try to look back on history, data shows Bitcoin is currently sitting in a long-term resistance turned support! But there might be further sell-offs as Bitcoin does not have bottom of bottoms right now! No one can say that Bitcoin’s already had its bottom. Well, we saw that in the monthly charts. A series of monthly dead cat bounces been rejecting Bitcoin bulls’ attempts to bring back higher prices. Over and over.

First thought $32-34K levels were the bottom, no. Then came sub-$20K price levels! What? Big no again! Until Bitcoin came back to visit its late year 2020 support. The question now can BTCUSD hold that support which connected last month June’s low?

Only time will tell as recently only, Bitcoin got strongly rejected by its 50-monthly moving average! If Bitcoin at least made a convincing weekly close above the minimal yet crucial $21,400 price level, then there could have been some higher hopes to say bottom was in. Instead, bid orders ahead mid July were instantly evaporated (filled) to the brim suggesting profit takers focus on the short-term!

Anyways, let me move on with my technical trade plan. I will be careful and weighing the current situation, I will be Bitcoin bearish for now. For the meantime, I fear a re-test may come any moment soon towards December 2020 and June 2022 lows, the fear index is simply way too overwhelming right now. I feel that most traders and investors alike, these days, can afford the short-term trades more and will simply act the quick volatility.

My short entry will be at $17,500 mark as the start of more possible new sweep of lows. Any lower lows can trigger heavy monthly selling! Will take profit at the $11-13K as Bitcoin bears next target. This area is near the Bitcoin’s 100-monthly MA and can be an obvious next long targets. That levels being said, Bitcoin is already so damn cheap and many will trigger buys! Why not? More than -80% from its ATH. If ever this short plan would not go according to plan, strict stop loss at $20K. Overall, the risk:reward ratio will be 2.20.

Bitcoin’s 50-monthly MA Got Strongly Rejected!

Rafael Ken Aguilar

Jul 13 2022

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