Bitcoin should resume the longer term bear trend now. Gains are likely to be limited with strong resistance at 20300/400. Further resistance at 20900/21000.

We dipped a little to 19600. Further losses are likely eventually & target 19500/450 then 19150/19000. Eventually a retest of the September low at 18550/500 is likely (& probably the 2022 low at 17588.

Bitcoin price currently auctions at $19,800 as early bulls have been jumping near the $19,500 level. A close within this level could spell bad news as the price action would be submerged within a previous consolidation range. Under Wycoff's theory, this would be a concerning signal for the bulls hoping for a continuation of the 25% rally.

The next move for Bitcoin price is likely to be a shocker. Binance Exchange has recently reported the most volume transactions occurred since Bitcoin's inception. The current volume pattern persistently shows larger upticks than the 2020 10x rally.

Combining these factors, Bitcoin could experience continuous smart money fakeouts like current price action, but may still be worth a speculative gamble. Invalidation of the uptrend remains a breach below the June 18 swing low at $17,622. Early evidence to suggest bears are truly in control would be a daily settle below the previous congestive zone at $19,480.

Short-term Bitcoin momentum indicates that sellers wanted to swing the market yesterday and snap stop orders at the end of the day, taking advantage of a period of reduced liquidity on Wednesday. As we see, it failed, and BTCUSD returned precisely to where it started its local decline. However, the balance of power is now on the bears' side, as the global risk demand is suppressed, and critical technical levels (50- and 200-day MA, 200-week MA) are above the price.

$18,000 Price Playing a Steady Role of Defense

Sep 16 2022

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