WTI soared during the New York session, propelled by the overall US Dollar weakening, tumbling more than 1%, while WTI’s exports hit an all-time high due to domestic refiners operating at a higher level. At the time of writing, WTI is trading at $88.05 per barrel after hitting a daily high of $88.38.

The US Dollar Index, a gauge of the buck’s value against a basket of peers, is stumbling for the second consecutive day, more than 1%, down from 111.135 highs to 109.774, a tailwind for the oil price.

WTI is neutral biased, though once it reclaimed the 20 and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) in the same trading session, a test of the $90.00 per barrel is on the cards. Notable, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) jumped in the last two days after oscillating around the 50-midline. So, as the RSI gathers bullish momentum, if oil buyers reclaim the $90.00 figure, a move towards the 100-day EMA at $94.05 would likely happen.

The price could be on the verge of an upside rally on a break of structure, with bulls accumulating the recent price drop. However, regardless that the price is now on the backside of the channel, the prior bullish trend's support could be regarded as the most dominant and should bulls fail to break above $87bbls, below $82 will be regarded as the mark-down level and open risks to lower prices for the foreseeable future.

Unless crossing the 50-DMA hurdle, around $86.30 by the press time, WTI crude oil sellers are likely targeting the previous week’s swing low near $81.30.

WTI has given a breakout and the first hawkish impulse

Oct 27 2022

Stop Loss -4.44%

Holding time 8d5hr

84.586

Entry price

80.828

Stop loss price