The EURUSD pair has spent the week below parity and posted a lower low and a lower high, a sign that bears are back. Profit-taking ahead of the weekend helped the pair to bounce on Friday, but the dominant bearish trend remains firmly in place.

The weekly chart shows that the pair keeps trading below a firmly bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which remains way below the longer ones. At the same time, the 100 SMA is crossing below the 200 SMA, both at around 1.1270. Finally, technical indicators have resumed their declines within negative levels, skewing the risk to the downside.

In the daily chart, on the other hand, a bearish continuation is in doubt. The EURUSD pair recovered above a directionless 20 SMA, which provides immediate support at around 0.9830, and seems poised to extend its recovery towards the next relevant dynamic resistance level, a bearish 100 SMA currently at around 1.0050. Meanwhile, the Momentum indicator is turning marginally higher within neutral levels, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has picked up upward momentum and hovers around 53.

Strong resistance comes at parity first, followed by the mentioned daily 100 SMA, currently at around 1.0050. The next level to watch is 1.0088, October's monthly high. The first support level is 0.9870, followed by the 0.9790 price zone. Below the latter, EURUSD can extend its decline towards the 0.9700/20 price zone.

In the weekly chart, 90% of the polled experts are looking for a lower-than-current level. Bears maintain the lead in the monthly and quarterly views but decrease to 73% and 65%, respectively. On average, the pair is seen at 0.9659 at the longer end of the range.

The Overview chart shows that most potential targets are between 0.9400 and 0.9900 in the three time-frame under study. Moving averages offer neutral-to-bearish slopes, suggesting that selling interest remains high. Looking into the distribution, a corrective advance seems more likely in a month, while the bearish trend resumes in the longer view. About the latter, some polled experts are looking for advances beyond parity, but the majority concentrates on the year’s low.

Sell First - Buy the Dip Later

Nov 06 2022