The AUDJPY pair has extended its recovery after overstepping the immediate hurdle of 93.50 in the Tokyo session. The risk barometer is now marching towards the round-level hurdle of 94.00 as volatility has been trimmed amid a stellar recovery in the S&P500. Also, US Treasury yields have witnessed a bloodbath after a significant drop in inflation numbers.

The AUDJPY dropped below the 50 and the 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) on Wednesday, amidst a risk-off impulse courtesy of the US Republican Party failing to sweep the midterm elections, as speculations mounted that a Republican majority would suggest few major policy changes in the next two years. At the time of writing, the AUDJPY is trading at 94.14, registering minuscule gains as the Asian session begins.

The AUDJPY  is range-bound, trapped within the 94.00-95.60 range for the last four trading days, unable to break above/below the range, even though market sentiment fluctuates, and kept global equities volatile. Of note, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49 turned bearish, suggesting that sellers are gathering momentum. However, unless Japanese Yen buyers break beneath the AUDJPY 94.00, that would open the door for further losses. Otherwise, the cross-currency pair will remain subdued within the previously mentioned area.

During the last couple of days, the AUDJPY shifted neutral-to-downward biased in the near term. The AUDJPY Wednesday’s price action depicts the pair dived below the 50, 100, and 200-EMAs, laying the ground for further downside. So the AUDJPU path of least resistance is downwards. Further cementing the bearish bias case is the RSI at bearish territory and not even close to the 50-midline.

Hence, the AUDJPY’s first support would be the 94.00 psychological level. Break below will expose the S1 daily pivot at 93.84, followed by the S2 daily pivot level at 93.58.

AUDJPY Expected to retrace from DEMA 200

Nov 12 2022