Short-term trading patterns show the USD finding good support on minor dips to the 1.3315/20 zone over the past 24 hours and a snap higher in European trade has put a positive print on the intraday chart for the USD from around that point. But upside potential looks pretty limited, with evidence of better USD selling pressure emerging around or above 1.34 in recent days. 

More generally, the USD appears to be consolidating ahead of another push lower (bear flag pattern); key support is 1.3320 intraday and resistance is 1.3395/00.

The momentum indicators currently suggest that bearish forces are gaining control. Specifically, the RSI is retreating below its 50-neutral mark, while the stochastic oscillator is descending near the 20-oversold zone.

To the downside, bearish forces could send the price to test the November low of 1.3225, which coincides with the pair’s high in July. Sliding beneath that floor, the crucial 1.3074 resistance region could appear on the radar. Failing to halt there, the bears may then aim at the 1.2960 support before the attention shifts to the August low of 1.2727.

On the flipside, should buyers regain control and push the price higher, initial resistance could be met at the recent resistance of 1.3494. Piercing through this region, the pair might challenge 1.3570, which overlaps with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). A break above the latter could trigger an advance towards 1.3850.

Overall, USDCAD appears ready to resume its recent decline as its latest rebound has run out of steam. Therefore, a break below the 1.3225 floor could validate this negative tendency.

USDCAD Having the Tendency for More Decline

Nov 25 2022