BTC is set to enter a volatile week as the Fed is the first central bank to report inflation on Tuesday, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on Wednesday with the dot-plot curve being communicated before that. Crucial, thus, with BTC primed to be underpinned at $16,020 as the Fed will confirm a slower pace and start penciling in a plateau for 2022. Possibly markets will go for the bullish outcome and pump up BTC toward $18,000 by the end of this week.

Risk to the downside easily comes with either a higher inflation number against the previous one on Tuesday or another 75bp hike on Wednesday from the Fed. That would trigger a massive wave of US Dollar strength and see BTC drop back to $16,020. As that level has already had many tests and even a short breach, expect $15,000 to be tested rather on the back of that. Translated in performance, that would mean a 12% decline against the current trading price.

From a high timeframe perspective, this area is an excellent level to accumulate, especially if the Bitcoin price is in a bear market rally. If true, BTC will revisit the $19,235 hurdle and the $20,000 psychological level.

On the other hand, if Bitcoin price fails to build up momentum for the uptrend but instead kick-starts a downtrend, investors can still look at accumulating at $16,502. However, if BTC breaks down this level in a four-hour timeframe by producing a decisive close below it, things will start to skew in the bears’ favor.

This move will invalidate the bullish thesis and potentially target equal lows at $15,462.

Bitcoin Planning on a Bullish Wave Above the TL

Dec 12 2022