EUR/JPY licks its wounds after slump to 138.81. Nevertheless, economists at Société Générale expect the pair to suffer further losses toward 130. For European and US fixed income markets, less Japanese buying could mean trouble ahead and greater pressure on domestic investors to absorb the overhang of new debt. Fundamentals aside, the chart for EUR/JPY is showing an interesting parallel with early 2015 and points to a deeper drop towards 130.

In doing so, the cross-currency pair seesaws around the 200-DMA to pare the biggest daily slump since June 2016.

Even so, bearish MACD signals, an absence of oversold RSI and sustained trading below the previous key support line from March 2022, now resistance around 141.85, keep the EUR/JPY bears hopeful.

That said, the sellers need a daily closing below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of March-October upside, close to 139.25, to retake control.

Following that, September’s bottom surrounding 137.35 and 50% Fibonacci retracement near 136.40 could challenge the EUR/JPY bears before highlighting the golden ratio, namely the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 133.55, will be in focus.

Should the EUR/JPY prices remain bearish past 133.55, May’s bottom of 132.66 could act as the last defense of the bulls.

Alternatively, recovery moves need to cross the December 02 low of 140.75 to convince short-term buyers.

In that case, the support-turned-resistance trend line from March, near 141.85, could gain the bull’s attention.

It’s worth noting that the EUR/JPY pair’s run-up beyond 141.85 could aim for the top marked in June and the monthly peak, respectively near 144.25 and 146.75.

EURJPY Expected of temporary recovery

Dec 25 2022