EUR/USD drops to 1.0645 as it renews its intraday low during the initial hour of Friday’s European session. In doing so, the major currency pair reverses from the two-week-old descending trend line resistance.

The pullback move could also be linked to the bearish MACD signals, which in turn suggests the quote’s further weakness. CY2022 has been named a year of higher inflation and continuous interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Fed policymakers worked hard to achieve price stability, however, the achievement of 2% inflation seems far now as the street is seeing an inflation rate well above 3% after QYCY2023.

However, the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around 1.0620 by the press time, restricts the EUR/USD pair’s short-term downside.

That said, the RSI (14) grinds higher around the overbought territory, which in turn joins the MACD conditions and the failure to cross immediate EMA, stated above, to keep EUR/USD sellers hopeful.

As a result, the quote’s sustained weakness below the 10-day EMA level could gradually drag it toward the previous monthly top near 1.0480.

Though, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the EUR/USD’s downside between May and September near 1.0310, also known as the “golden ratio”, becomes crucial for the bear’s conviction.

On the contrary, recovery moves remain elusive even if the EUR/USD bulls manage to cross the immediate resistance line, around 1.0690 at the latest. The reason could be linked to the pair’s previous pullbacks from the below 1.0800 region, marked in May 2022. Hence, the pair buyers need a successful break of the 1.0800 threshold to dominate further.

Downside move expected on EURUSD for 3rd wave correction

Dec 31 2022