Regardless, 2023 had a good start as BTC is up roughly 36% so far, with an 8% rally overnight that has pushed Bitcoin price above a critical hurdle at $21,383. This development now puts the bulls against one major blockade.

This resistance level is a confluence of the horizontal barrier at $23,384 and the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $24,645. The last time Bitcoin price slipped below this SMA was in June 2022 and briefly in March 2020.

An interesting observation to make here is that in its 12-year history, Bitcoin has never stayed below this support level for a prolonged duration. Therefore, bulls are likely going to target this hurdle next.

A successful flip of this confluence, especially the $24,645 into a support floor on a weekly timeframe, will open the path for Bitcoin price to retest the $30,000 hurdle.

While things are looking up for Bitcoin price, this is the first time in the 12-year history BTC has stayed below the 200-week SMA for more than two weeks. But since the 2022 bear market has pushed the big crypto below this level at $24,645, it is a significant move from a macro perspective that investors need to be cautious about.

Although the bullish outlook seems unfadeable, a rejection at a 200-week SMA at $24,645 will be a crucial sign for bears. A secondary confirmation of the bearish outlook will occur on the breakdown of the $19,301 support level.

A weekly candlestick close, however, below the $15,443 level will create a lower low and invalidate the bullish thesis. In such a case, Bitcoin price could slide as low as $11,387.

Bitcoin reaching the points of completion of correction

Jan 22 2023