USD/JPY slumps in a choppy New York trading session and edges beneath 130.00 after a round of US economic data, suggesting the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could begin to hike rates in 25 bps sizes. Therefore, the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened, so the USD/JPY is down 0.24%. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 129.92.

the USD/JPY pair has been oscillating between two converging trend-lines over the past two weeks or so. This constitutes the formation of a symmetrical triangle and points to a consolidation phase. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained break below the triangle support, currently around the 128.80-128.75 region, before positioning for an extension of the recent sharp pullback from over a three-decade high.

The USD/JPY remains downward biased as the pair has remained below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 130.60. Friday’s price action remains contained within the boundaries of Thursday’s high and low, opening the door for a bullish harami candlestick formation, also known as an inside day, in the regular bar chart jargon. Therefore, the USD/JPY could print a leg-up before resuming its downtrend.

Hence, the USD/JPY next resistance would be 130.00, followed by the confluence of the 20-day EMA and a downslope trendline around 130.60, which, once cleared, might send the USD/JPY climbing towards the January 24 swing high at 131.11. Break above will expose the January 18 high of 131.57.

As an alternate scenario, the USD/JPY could fall towards 129.49, January’s 27 low. Once broken, the next support would be the weekly low of 129.02, followed by the YTD low at 127.21.

More bearish maneuver can be expected from USDJPY

Jan 29 2023