The strong US employment data very clearly helped to catch the market offside. Still, instead of pouring fuel on the retracement fire, Fed chair Powell doused it with extinguisher by looking through its impact somewhat. 

This could have a vol-suppressive impact as the market waits for US inflation data on 14 Feb. As far as my EURUSD view goes, these factors have played well for my view that taking profits at my previous 1.0950 target made sense. For the longer-term uptrend to stay intact, levels near 1.0720 need to hold on daily closes. This also happens to be roughly at the mid-point of the broader 1.0500 – 1.1100 range I can imagine holding for the remainder of Q1. Ideally, I would prefer to see a dip closer to 1.0600 before looking to buy again.

Ideally another dip before buying again!

Feb 13 2023

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