USD/CAD retreats from intraday high as buyers struggle to overcome the key Hourly Moving Average (HMA) during early Monday in Europe. Even so, the Loonie pair prints 0.20% intraday gains around 1.3375 as it pares the heaviest daily loss in five weeks, marked the previous day.

Crude oil prices once again fail near a technically significant 200-day SMA and kick off the new week on a weaker note. This, in turn, is seen undermining the commodity-linked Loonie. Apart from this, the prospects for further policy tightening by the Fed act as a tailwind for the greenback and contributes to limiting losses for the USD/CAD pair.

The quote’s recovery could be linked to its bounce off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of February 02-06 upside amid the oversold RSI (14) conditions.

However, the 200-HMA level challenges the USD/CAD pair’s immediate upside near 1.3385.

Given the bullish MACD signals, despite being sluggish of late, the Loonie pair may remain on the bull’s radar, suggesting a clear break of the immediate HMA hurdle surrounding 1.3385.

Following that, 1.3415 may test the upside momentum before directing the USD/CAD bulls toward the two-week-old horizontal resistance area near 1.3470.

In a case where USD/CAD remains firmer past 1.3470, it can aim for a late January swing high near 1.3520.

Alternatively, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, also known as the golden Fibonacci ratio, puts a floor under the USD/CAD prices of around 1.3340, a break of which highlights the 1.3300 round figure for the bears.

Should USD/CAD breaks the 1.3300 round figure, the monthly low and November 2022 trough, respectively near 1.3260 and 1.3225, will gain the market’s attention.

Staying hawkish on USDCAD above 1.32609

Feb 13 2023